Verteilungswirkungen des Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetzes

The ongoing economic criticism of the German Renewable Energy Act (EEG) recently started focusing on distributional effects, too. A team of authors at the Cologne Institute for Economic Research is worried about high costs for electricity consumers. They argue since electric power consumption is only slightly correlated with income, the fi nancial burden of the EEG is substantially higher for low-income households than for high-income households. This regressive effect is even increased since particularly high-income households have installed photovoltaic systems and thereby gain from green power subsidies. In contrast, other authors argue that this debate on distributional effects, while desirable, often scandalizes rather common issues of everyday economic events while ignoring the real EEG-induced redistribution effects, that is to say the EEG reallocation charge privilege for energy-intensive industries. These authors advise against drawing on partial analysis when discussing distribution-related issues of the EEG. A team of authors at the ZEW are concerned about the cost-effi ciency of the EEG which is the underlying reason for the recent discussions on distributional effects. The energy transition will entail large additional cost which will have to be carried. Increasing the effi ciency of governmental energy and climate policies will increase acceptance and attenuate distributional effects.     

Neue Weltklimaordnung: Emissionshandel zwischen Staaten mit schrittweiser Klimagerechtigkeit

Der Diskussionsprozess um ein internationales Klimaabkommen und zur Klimagerechtigkeit dauert an. Die Autoren stellen ein Modell vor, das Klimagerechtigkeit schrittweise und mit marktbasierten Instrumenten umsetzt. Sie fordern eine internationale Weltklimaordnung, die auf der Weltklimakonferenz in Südafrika im Dezember 2011 umgesetzt werden soll.     

ON CONSUMERS' VALUATION OF NUTRITION INFORMATION

The European Union (EU) is contemplating regulations requiring mandatory provision of nutritional information on food products. This study analyses consumers' valuation of nutritional information using data collected from a field survey. The results generally suggest that consumers value and are willing to pay about 5.9 percent of the original price for nutritional information on the food product we studied. Individuals who are non-price-sensitive, nutritionally knowledgeable and with longer time horizon are willing to pay more for nutritional information than others. Considering consumers' willingness to pay for nutritional information on food products and an EU impact assessment study, the costs of provision of this information are not prohibitive to firms. We estimate that the least conservative cost of labelling to the firm for a specific food product can be as much as €29,431, whereas the average economic value of nutrition information is estimated at €17,064. The firm can therefore recoup the associated costs in less than two months.     

USING LOTTERIES TO FINANCE PUBLIC GOODS: THEORY AND EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE*

This study explores the economics of charitable fund‐raising. We begin by developing theory that examines the optimal lottery design while explicitly relaxing both risk‐neutrality and preference homogeneity assumptions. We test our theory using a battery of experimental treatments and find that our theoretical predictions are largely confirmed. Specifically, we find that single‐ and multiple‐prize lotteries dominate the voluntary contribution mechanism both in total dollars raised and the number of contributors attracted. Moreover, we find that the optimal fund‐raising mechanism depends critically on the risk postures of potential contributors and preference heterogeneity.     

Decentralized learning from failure

We study decentralized learning in organizations. Decentralization is captured through Crawford and Haller's [Learning how to cooperate: optimal play in repeated coordination games, Econometrica 58 (1990) 571-595] attainability constraints on strategies. We analyze a repeated game with imperfectly observable actions. A fixed subset of action profiles are successes and all others are failures. The location of successes is unknown. The game is played until either there is a success or the time horizon is reached. We partially characterize optimal attainable strategies in the infinite horizon game by showing that after any fixed time, agents will occasionally randomize while at the same time mixing probabilities cannot be uniformly bounded away from zero.     

Expected inflation, expected stock returns, and money illusion: What can we learn from survey expectations?

We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. Empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability by virtue of a comprehensive set of expectations data, we find that money illusion seems to be the driving force behind our results. Another popular hypothesis – inflation as a proxy for aggregate risk aversion – is not supported by thedata.     

Real and nominal UK interest rates,ERM membership,and inflation targeting

This article estimates a two-factor term structure model to analyze the time-varying mean-reverting levels of the UK real and nominal short-term interest rates. Before and during British membership in the ERM, the mean-reverting levels of real and nominal short rates have a strong negative correlation. Afterward, when the UK implemented an inflation targeting policy, the mean-reverting levels have a strong positive correlation. The article also reports empirical evidence of a link between the time-varying central tendencies and inflation in the disinflation period before the implementation of the inflation targeting policy.     

Ghostbusting: which output gap really matters?

Reflecting domestic demand pressures, the output gap has important implications for economic analysis. This paper assesses the usefulness of four commonly-used gap measures for a small set of European countries. The main results are that the policy implications can be very different depending on the gap measure and that, consequently, care should be exercised when employing any such measure. Moreover the paper investigates in a simple inflation forecasting framework the common assertion that the output gap could improve the forecasting accuracy. For annual observations, however, these measures rarely provide useful information and there is no single best measure across countries.     

Stationary equilibria in bargaining with externalities

This paper studies infinite-horizon bargaining between a seller and multiple buyers when externalities are present. We extend the analysis in Jehiel and Moldovanu by allowing for both pure and mixed equilibria [Jehiel, P., Moldovanu, B., 1995a. Cyclical delay in bargaining with externalities. Rev. Econ. Stud. 62, 619–637]. A characterization of the stationary subgame perfect equilibria in generic games is presented. Equilibria with delay exist only for strong positive externalities. Since each buyer receives a positive payoff when the seller makes an agreement with some other buyer, positive externalities induce a war of attrition between buyers.     

Customer issues related to limited air connectivity

Air access can be crucial for regional economic development, especially when global industries are involved. However, air traffic generates negative impacts, such as noise and air pollution that can lead to politically motivated calls to reduce air traffic. This paper investigates customer issues and potential responses of frequent flyers to non-market-driven limitations on air transport. Based on a survey conducted at Zurich International Airport we show that frequent air travelers tend to be more senior and to work in industries that involve travel outside of the worker's country of origin. Consequently, they are more critical of potential restrictions on air travel.