The Collapse of the ‘New EMS’: An Interpretation

Existing theoretical models cannot explain the following features of the EMS and its crisis in 1992: its progressive hardening from 1987 onwards; the fact that credibility was shared the progressive deterioration of credibility after the first Danish referendum without changes in the economic fundamentals. This paper argues that the reason lies in the fact that the literature has not accounted for the changes in the perceived prospects of EMU. We show that an adjustable peg regime that incorporates these prospects can explain the three features listed above.     

Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account

World capital markets have experienced large scale sovereign defaults on a number of occasions. In this paper we develop a quantitative model of debt and default in a small open economy. We use this model to match four empirical regularities regarding emerging markets: defaults occur in equilibrium, interest rates are countercyclical, net exports are countercyclical, and interest rates and the current account are positively correlated. We highlight the role of the stochastic trend in emerging markets, in an otherwise standard model with endogenous default, to match these facts.     

AN ATTEMPT TO EXPLAIN DIFFERENCES IN ECONOMIC GROWTH: A STOCHASTIC FRONTIER APPROACH

Total factor productivity (TFP), factor accumulation, and growth are analysed for a panel of 40 countries in 2001–11. TFP growth and technical inefficiency are estimated using a stochastic frontier model. Environmental variables are found to have an important role in explaining differences in inefficiency across countries. Over 2001–11, the general improvement in technical efficiency of countries is almost outweighed by technological regress. Results indicate that differences in factor accumulation between OECD and emerging economies are more important than differences in TFP change to explain differences in economic growth. Results also indicate negative and significant random shocks for the OECD countries.     

Do stable strategic time periods exist? Towards new methodological and theoretical insights

This paper investigates a fundamental issue in the current research on strategic groups: the existence or non‐existence of the so‐called ‘stable strategic time periods’ (SSTPs). Our study provides new evidence by adding new methodological and theoretical insights. The research setting is the Spanish banking industry over a 15‐year period, 1983–1997. Unlike all prior longitudinal research that found SSTPs, the multi‐method procedure that we used in this study (i.e. equality of variance and covariance matrix and mean vector of strategic variables and a subsequent grouping analysis performed through the MCLUST) has led us to reject the existence of SSTPs in the industry under study. Based on these original findings, we conclude by suggesting a proposition which should be corroborated in future empirical studies on strategic groups. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gender segregation and earnings differences in the Spanish labour market

This article analyses the effects of different types of gender segregation on the gender wage differential for the Spanish labour market. Matched employer–employee data from a sample of 226,535 workers are used. These workers are employed in 61 occupations within 26,492 establishments in 51 different industries. Workers belonging to the same industry, establishment or job share common factors which cannot be observed and these factors affect wages. If these unobservable variables are correlated with the explanatory variables, their estimated effects will be biased. For this reason, we estimate the effects of each type of gender segregation on the wage gap using a robust specification to these possible correlations. We obtain that industrial segregation by gender explains a lower part of the wage gap between men and women than previous researches found using standard regressions, while the contributions of establishment segregation and occupational segregation within each establishment are greater.     

Major International Information Flows Across the Safex Wheat Market

We study information flows across four wheat futures markets on four continents: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE), South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX), Euronext/Liffe and Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT). Three approaches for studying information flows among non‐synchronous markets are applied: cointegration techniques, vector autoregressive analysis and multiple regression proposed. Although comparable underlying assets are traded in the four markets, our results indicate that no long‐run links exist among them. ZCE is by far the most endogenous market, and Euronext/Liffe is the most exogenous one. Finally, the model points to KCBT as the most influential and sensitive wheat market. Our findings indicate that the relative openness of the SAFEX wheat market supports information flows and linkages from KCBT and Euronext/Liffe. Therefore, our results suggest that more supportive policies to incentivise higher wheat production in South Africa are required to mitigate the impact of price shocks emanating from the global wheat markets.     

Housing and Health

Deprived housing is recognized as a source of poor health, but there is still little evidence of a causal relationship between housing and health. While existing literature identifies neighborhood effects and the individual dwelling as factors which affect health, it does not offer a joint examination of these factors. Moreover, endogeneity is a concern in analyses of both problems. Thus far, studies addressing endogeneity have done so through experimental design or instrumental variables. The first approach suffers from problems of external validity and the latter from the lack of reliable instruments. We therefore adopt an alternative strategy which considers both sources of endogeneity in order to identify the effects of housing on health by estimating fixed‐effect models. We reveal how housing problems affect health depending on living conditions and socioeconomic status. Our results therefore indicate that living in poor housing is an important short‐term socioeconomic determinant that directly affects health.     

Effects of global trade liberalization on softwood lumber markets

This study develops a world spatial equilibrium softwood lumber model comprised of the major importing and exporting countries/regions to analyse the impacts of global trade reform on the world softwood lumber market. The results show that free trade leads to an increase in lumber trade, and Canadian producers and US consumers are the biggest beneficiaries. Trade liberalization improves the overall world welfare as world producer and consumer surpluses increase. The result highlights the importance of moving towards free trade in the global softwood lumber market.     

Economic growth as a function of human capital,internet and work

The World Bank has suggested the need to enhance Information and Communication Technology skills in all sectors because a 10% increase in internet connectivity was found to boost GDP growth by 1.38%. Simultaneously, the OECD argued that high internet access rates generate a 2% increase in GDP. Because the internet positively affects economic growth, we investigated the relationship between an economically active population, human capital and technology to evaluate these effects in Mexico. A data series from 1991 to 2010 was analysed in three stages according to the least-squares method. A Cobb–Douglas function under the Solow model was considered. Technology and internet access were found to positively affect top-level students and graduate students and thus contribute to the global innovation index.