A model of the learning process with local knowledge externalities illustrated with an integrated graphical framework

We present a unified graphical framework accounting for the nature and impact of spillover effects. The dynamics of the learning process with a specific spillover transfer mechanism can be illustrated by referring to this four-quadrant picture. In particular, a whole cycle of technological learning is explained with the help of such a graphical representation of the basic learning process in the presence of knowledge spillovers.

We hypothesize two different functional specifications of spillover exchanges among firms within a local innovation system. Each conceivable shape for the knowledge transfer relationship among firms expresses a possible mode and intensity of information processing arising from technology spillovers. A general proposition regarding the relative efficiency of the two alternative formal models with spillover effects is derived. The basic models with spillover effects are then extended in several relevant directions.     

Do large capital inflows hinder competitiveness? The Dutch disease in Ethiopia

This article investigates whether large inflows of foreign aid and remittances have had a damaging impact on the Ethiopian Real Exchange Rate (RER). We improve the current empirical literature by: (i) compiling a unique quarterly dataset to provide a larger sample size and enable the modelling of important intra-year dynamics – which should lead to better model specifications; (ii) providing a new empirical approach (Unobserved Components (UC)) to test the ‘Dutch disease’ hypothesis; and (iii) using several cointegration approaches to further test the robustness of our conclusions. Our results suggest that there are two main long-run determinants of the RER in Ethiopia: trade openness is found to be correlated with RER depreciations, while a positive shock to the terms of trade tends to appreciate the RER. Foreign aid is not found to have a statistically significant impact, while there is only weak evidence that remittances are associated with RER appreciations. The lack of empirical support for the ‘Dutch disease’ hypothesis suggests that Ethiopia has been able to effectively manage large capital inflows, thus avoiding major episodes of macroeconomic instability. We believe that most African countries will therefore be able to absorb large inflows of foreign capital without damaging their external competitiveness.     

Carbon leakages: a general equilibrium view

The effectiveness of unilateral action to curb carbon emissions has been dismissed because of possible “carbon leakages”, this referring to the rise of emissions in non-participating countries. This paper offers a general equilibrium (GE) exploration of the key mechanisms and factors underlying the size of carbon leakages. We developed a two-region, two-goods simplified GE framework, incorporating three types of fossil fuels (coal, oil and low-carbon energy), international trade and capital mobility. The model was designed to make tractable extensive multidimensional sensitivity analysis. The results suggest that the coal supply elasticity plays a critical role, while substitution elasticities between traded goods and international capital mobility appear relatively less influential. The shape of the production function also matters for the size of the leakages. Confirming the results obtained with large computable GE models, for a wide range of parameters’ values, carbon leakages appear to be small. Therefore, the argument that unilateral carbon abatement action taken by a large group of countries (such as the Annex 1 group) is flawed by significant carbon leakages is not supported by our sensitivity analysis. The likelihood of small leakages favours in fact the formation of a worldwide coalition to stabilise climate change.     

Capabilities as causal powers

The author argues that Sen's capability approach is primarilya philosophical under-labouring exercise aimed at elaboratingcertain central economic categories, and that the philosophicaland methodological underpinnings of Sen's approach are radicallydifferent from those of contemporary welfare economics and mainstreameconomic practice. Sen's notion of ‘capabilities’as the potential functionings to achieve well-being is interpretedhere as a specification of the ontological category of ‘causalpower’, presupposing an open system conception of realitythat contrasts with much of contemporary economic practice.     

Education public financing and economic growth: an endogenous growth model versus evidence

Using an Endogenous Growth Model with physical and human capital and unemployment (Mauro and Carmeci in J Macroecon 25:123–137, 2003), we study the effects of subsidies to education in economic growth. According to the model, we conclude that government subsidies to education only enhance economic growth conditional on unemployment and that this relationship is negatively influenced by unemployment. We provide evidence from a broad panel data of countries that confirms the importance of unemployment in the relationship between subsidies to education and economic growth but dismiss its importance as a direct determinant of economic growth.      

Budgets,expenditure composition and political manipulation

Abstract

This paper analyses the presence of political cycles in Portuguese Governments’ expenditures using monthly data over the period 1991–2013 for the main categories of government expenditures. The results indicate that Portuguese Governments act opportunistically regarding the budget surplus and that they favour capital instead of current spending near to the elections. Moreover, right-wing governments are more prone to reduce expenditures and deficits after the elections than left-wing ones. A deeper disaggregated analysis of the components of government expenditures corroborates these findings while disentangling other relevant patterns of political manipulation in Portugal.     

The Brazilian bankruptcy law reform,corporate ownership concentration,and risk-taking

We investigate whether a bankruptcy reform, which increased creditors' protection, affected the risk taking of Brazilian firms. Collecting data from Brazilian (treatment group) and Argentinian, Chilean, Colombian, Mexican, and Peruvian firms (control group) and using a difference-in-difference technique, we show that Brazilian firms with concentrated ownership structure decreased risk taking after the reform. Our results suggest that these firms reduced risk in response to increasing creditors' protection, possibly because controlling shareholder fear losing control. Moreover, our results indicate that the reform probably provoked a wealth transfer from minorities to controlling shareholders.     

Political and Institutional Determinants of Credit Booms

The literature that investigates credit booms has essentially focused on their economic determinants. This paper explores the importance of political conditionings and central bank independence and provides some striking findings on this matter. Estimating a fixed effects logit model over a panel of developed and developing countries for the period 1975q1–2016q4, we find that credit booms are less likely when right‐wing parties are in office, especially in developing countries, and when there is political instability. However, they have not proven to depend on the electoral cycle. More independent Central Banks are also found to reduce the probability of credit booms. Moreover, they seem to be more likely to occur and spread within a monetary union.     

CAPE VERDE: THE CASE FOR EUROISATION

After a decade of a successful peg to the euro, the authorities of Cape Verde are considering the official euroisation of the country. For an ex ante economic evaluation of such a move, this paper assesses whether Cape Verde fulfills key economic criteria devised by the optimum currency areas literature, using as benchmark the comparable records of the 27 European Union (EU) countries. The answer is positive. Overall, we find that Cape Verde is not less suited for euroisation than some of the current euro area members and most of the remaining members of the EU.     

Level,slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve,and fiscal behaviour

We study fiscal behaviour and the sovereign yield curve in the US and Germany. We obtain the latent factors, level, slope and curvature, with the Kalman filter, and use them in a VAR with macro, fiscal and financial stress variables. In the US, fiscal shocks generate an immediate response of the short-end of the yield curve, associated with monetary policy, lasting 6–8 quarters, followed by a response of the whole yield curve lasting 3 years, with an implied elasticity of long-term yields of 80% for the government debt shock and 48% for the budget balance shock. In Germany, fiscal shocks have entailed no significant reactions of the yield curve shape and no response of the monetary policy interest rate, notably after 1999; only in the case of debt shocks there is a short-lived decrease in the medium-end of the yield curve in the following 2nd and 3rd quarters.