Distinguishing between stochastic and deterministic behavior in high frequency foreign exchange rate returns: Can non-linear dynamics help forecasting?

This paper investigates the dynamic properties of high frequency foreign exchange rate returns. Using hourly data for four exchanges rates, the British Pound, the Deutschemark, the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc, we attempt to differentiate between stochastic and deterministic behavior in hourly rates of returns. While the autocorrelation coefficients and the Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman test point to the presence of some non-linear dependence, correlation dimension estimates reveal little evidence in favor of low-dimensional chaos. The analysis appears to support the view that although it is not possible to exploit deterministic non-linear dependence in exchange rate time series in order to improve short-term forecasting, non-linear stochastic models can be used for conditional volatility forecasts.     

Life Satisfaction and Longevity: Longitudinal Evidence from the German Socio‐Economic Panel

We investigate the relationship between life satisfaction and mortality using the German Socio‐Economic Panel, which allows us to follow around 15,000 people for more than two decades. Seventeen per cent of the respondents surveyed in 1984 died between 1984 and 2007. After controlling for initial health conditions, we find that people's life satisfaction at the beginning of the survey is deeply linked to their life expectancy: a ten per cent increase in life satisfaction is connected to a four per cent decline in the probability of death in the period studied. The relationship between life satisfaction and mortality is stronger for the married and the men but life satisfaction does not matter for the women. We find some suggestive evidence that links between life satisfaction and mortality could be operating via accidents and mental health. Finally, we show that the life satisfaction measured in 1984 extends to the rest of life: people who were happier in 1984 more frequently experienced high levels of happiness in the rest of their lives. These results suggest that life satisfaction is a powerful risk‐factor for later mortality and is more predictive of mortality than a host of other variables.     

Subject pool effects in a corruption experiment: A comparison of Indonesian public servants and Indonesian students

We report results from a corruption experiment with Indonesian public servants and Indonesian students. Our results suggest that the Indonesian public servant subjects have a significantly lower tolerance of corruption than the Indonesian students. We find no evidence that this is due to a selection effect. The reasons given by the subjects for their behaviour suggest that the differences in behavior across the subject pools are driven by their different real life experiences. For example, when abstaining from corruption, public servants more often cite the need to reduce the social costs of corruption as a reason for their actions, and when engaging in corruption, they cite low government salaries or a belief that corruption is a necessary evil in the current environment. In contrast, students give more simplistic moral reasons. We conclude by emphasizing that results obtained from different subject pools can complement each other in illuminating different aspects of the same problem. We would like to thank Charles Noussair and the participants of the Experimental Economics Workshop (2006) at the University of Melbourne for their comments. Daniel Piccinin and Revy Sjahrial have provided excellent research assistance. We are grateful to the Australian Research Council and the World Bank for their financial assistance.     

Australia's Immigration Selection System and Labour Market Outcomes in a Family Context: Evidence from Administrative Data

This paper examines the efficacy of the Australian points system in a family context among working-age permanent resident immigrants who arrived between 2000 and 2011 when there was a major focus on skills selection. Sixty-seven per cent of these immigrants were granted a skilled visa while 25 per cent hold a spousal visa (spouses of Australian citizens). More than half of the skilled visa recipients are the spouses of the primary applicants. Primary applicants among skilled visa holders are assessed for their skills in line with the Australian points system but secondary applicants, such as spouses, among skilled visa holders and spousal visa holders are not subject to any skills assessment before becoming permanent residents. We study differences in economic outcomes by permanent visa types and the role of points system factors in explaining these differences using the Personal Income Tax and Migrants Integrated Dataset and the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset. We find that primary skilled visa holders earn at least 26–28 per cent more than spousal visa holders, and this is similar for both genders. However, spouses of primary skilled visa holders earn 13–18 per cent more than spousal visa holders. This difference is higher among females than males. Occupation differences can account for nearly half of the differences in income and can entirely capture the role of education and English proficiency. Primary skilled immigrants and their spouses have higher rates of labour force participation and employment than spousal visa holders, starting in the first year of arrival, and the gap is much higher for primary skilled visa holders, but these differences do not disappear quickly.     

Propensities to engage in and punish corrupt behavior: Experimental evidence from Australia, India, Indonesia and Singapore

This paper examines cultural differences in individual decision-making in a corruption game. We define culture as an individual's accumulated experience, shaped by the social, institutional, and economic aspects of the environment in which the individual lives. Based on experiments run in Australia (Melbourne), India (Delhi), Indonesia (Jakarta) and Singapore, we find that there is a greater variation in the propensities to punish corrupt behavior than in the propensities to engage in corrupt behavior across cultures. Consistent with the existing corruption indices, the subjects in India exhibit a higher tolerance of corruption than the subjects in Australia. However, the subjects in Singapore have a higher tolerance and the subjects in Indonesia have much lower tolerance of corruption than expected. We conjecture that this is due to the nature of the recent institutional changes in these two countries. We also vary our experimental design to examine the impact of the perceived cost of bribery and find that the results are culture-specific.     

Correction to: Putting relational contract theory to the test: experimental evidence

Experimental Economics - A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-021-09712-z     

Putting relational contract theory to the test: experimental evidence

Experimental Economics - We investigate a number of canonical predictions that arise from relational contract theory. Employing an experimental design with endogenous choice of contract type, we...     

Nowcasting National GDP Growth Using Small Business Sales Growth

This study shows that the Xero Small Business Index (XSBI) sales growth data can be used to predict the same period's national nominal GDP growth, with high accuracy, in the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand. Findings show that XSBI sales growth can predict the same month's GDP growth around two weeks earlier than the official release in the United Kingdom. On the other hand, the three-month average of the XSBI sales growth can predict the same quarter's GDP growth, six weeks earlier than the official release in New Zealand and five weeks earlier than the official release in Australia.