Canada's Anti‐dumping and Safeguard Policies: Overt and Subtle Forms of Discrimination

Like many countries in the international trading system, Canada repeatedly faces political pressure from industries seeking protection from import competition. I examine Canadian policymakers’ response to this pressure within the economic environment created by its participation in discriminatory trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). In particular, I exploit new sources of data on Canada's use of potentially WTO‐consistent import‐restricting policies such as anti‐dumping, global safeguards and a China‐specific safeguard. I illustrate subtle ways in which Canadian policymakers may be structuring the application of such policies so as to reinforce the discrimination inherent in Canada's external trade policy because of the preferences granted to the United States and Mexico through NAFTA.     

Do minimum wages raise employment? Evidence from the U.S. retail-trade sector

This paper examines the impact of minimum wages on earnings and employment in selected branches of the retail-trade sector, 1990–2005, using county-level data on employment and a panel regression framework that allows for county-specific trends in sectoral outcomes. We focus on specific subsectors within retail trade that are identified as particularly low-wage. We find little evidence of disemployment effects once we allow for geographic-specific trends. Indeed, in many sectors the evidence points to modest (but robust) positive employment effects.     

A New Metric to Gauge Household Economic Stress: Improving on the Misery Index

We present an improvement on the Misery Index that quantifies the economic stress that households are feeling today. Much of the economic stress in households today stems from the decline in household wealth that has come as a result of falling house prices, so we have added a measure of house price change to the Misery Index. Deteriorating economic conditions in most U.S. regions through the first three quarters of 2008 have resulted in increasing household economic stress as all components of the expanded Household Economic Stress Index increased. The components are the rate of change in the consumer price index, the unemployment rate, and rate of change in house prices. The authors show that this intuitive and simple index is useful in analyzing mortgage delinquencies both nationally and regionally.     

SUPPLY CHAIN CAPITAL: THE IMPACT OF STRUCTURAL AND RELATIONAL LINKAGES ON FIRM EXECUTION AND INNOVATION

Firms invest millions of dollars annually in developing their supply chains, with the broad goal of increasing their own performance. However, despite the significant resources deployed for supply chain development, the extent to which initiating, maintaining, and managing supply chain relationships contributes to firm success remains unclear. The current article provides conceptual development supporting the valuation of firm‐to‐firm supply chain connections from the perspective of the focal firm. Based on the social network and economics literatures, the article introduces the concept of supply chain capital, which comprises the value of both the structural configuration and relationship content of the firm's supply chain network. Following theoretical development, a non‐exhaustive set of propositions are constructed illustrating multiple ways that supply chain capital can be accrued and exploited for firm‐level benefit. Managerial recommendations for investment in supply chain capital are included, as are future directions for research in the area of supply chain networks.     

WAREHOUSE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS: RESOURCE COMMITMENT,CAPABILITIES, AND ORGANIZATIONAL PERFORMANCE

Modern warehousing firms and distribution centers are overwhelmed with information related to the flows and storage of goods and services. The efficient and effective utilization of logistics‐related information can enhance firms' ability to reduce costs while simultaneously improving customer satisfaction. Warehouse management systems (WMS) are frequently implemented and used with these goals in mind. The current research examines resource‐based empirical justification for the pursuit and implementation of WMS. In addition, a research agenda is offered to guide future research efforts related to WMS and the broader area of logistics information systems (LIS).     

Shortages and economic policy

In this paper, we use an input-output framework to model an economy experiencing a shortage of a primary product or intermediate good. We show that when a shortage is combined with factor price rigidities, the reduction in consumption and employment will be larger than is necessary. In such cases, there is a need for government intervention, to manage the shortage and make the best of a bad situation. We show that the impact of a shortage can be ameliorated by changes in the composition of output, brought about by direct allocation of the scarce input or by differential sales taxes. The traditional instruments of monetary and fiscal policy are shown to be of little use in dealing with shortages.     

Do South‐South trade agreements increase trade? Commodity‐level evidence from COMESA

Abstract .  South-South trade agreements are proliferating. Yet the impact of these agreements is largely unknown, as existing North-North and North-South micro-level studies are likely to yield misleading predictions for South-South trade agreements. This paper estimates the impact of COMESA on Uganda's imports between 1994 and 2003. Detailed import and tariff data at the 6-digit Harmonized System level are used for more than 1,000 commodities. Based on a difference-in-difference estimation strategy, the paper finds that – in contrast to evidence from aggregate statistics – COMESA's preferential tariff liberalization has not considerably increased Uganda's trade with member countries, on average, across sectors. The effect, however, is heterogeneous across sectors. Finally, the paper finds no evidence of trade-diversion effects.     

The Short‐ and Long‐Run Determinants of Less‐Educated Immigrant Flows into U.S. States

We use a gravity model of migration and alternative estimation strategies to analyze how income differentials affect the flow of immigrants into U.S. states using annual data from the American Community Survey. We add to existing literature by decomposing income differentials into short‐ and long‐term components and by focusing on newly arrived less‐educated immigrants between 2000 and 2009. Our sample is unique in that the vast majority of our observations take zero values. Models that include observations with zero‐flow values find that recent male immigrants respond to differences in (short‐term) GDP fluctuations between origin countries and U.S. states, and perhaps to (long‐term) trend GDP differences as well. More specifically, GDP fluctuations pull less‐educated male immigrants into certain U.S. states, whereas GDP trends push less‐educated male immigrants out of their countries of origin. Effects for less‐educated women are less robust, as GDP coefficients tend to be much smaller than for men.     

Selecting local models in multiple regression by maximizing power

This paper considers multiple regression procedures for analyzing the relationship between a response variable and a vector of d covariates in a nonparametric setting where tuning parameters need to be selected. We introduce an approach which handles the dilemma that with high dimensional data the sparsity of data in regions of the sample space makes estimation of nonparametric curves and surfaces virtually impossible. This is accomplished by abandoning the goal of trying to estimate true underlying curves and instead estimating measures of dependence that can determine important relationships between variables. These dependence measures are based on local parametric fits on subsets of the covariate space that vary in both dimension and size within each dimension. The subset which maximizes a signal to noise ratio is chosen, where the signal is a local estimate of a dependence parameter which depends on the subset dimension and size, and the noise is an estimate of the standard error (SE) of the estimated signal. This approach of choosing the window size to maximize a signal to noise ratio lifts the curse of dimensionality because for regions with sparsity of data the SE is very large. It corresponds to asymptotically maximizing the probability of correctly finding nonspurious relationships between covariates and a response or, more precisely, maximizing asymptotic power among a class of asymptotic level αt-tests indexed by subsets of the covariate space. Subsets that achieve this goal are called features. We investigate the properties of specific procedures based on the preceding ideas using asymptotic theory and Monte Carlo simulations and find that within a selected dimension, the volume of the optimally selected subset does not tend to zero as n → ∞ unless the volume of the subset of the covariate space where the response depends on the covariate vector tends to zero.     

Incumbency advantages in the Canadian Parliament

Abstract We apply a regression discontinuity approach to determine incumbency advantages in the Canadian Parliament, finding that incumbents enjoy a 9.4–11.2% increased probability of winning over non‐incumbents. Owing to the presence of multiple parties, an incumbency advantage in terms of vote share does not always translate to an increased probability of winning, because incumbents do not necessarily obtain votes from their closest opponent. Also, under the assumption that strategic exit is not an issue, we are able to split the incumbency advantage into party incumbency and individual candidate incumbency components, finding that the advantage is almost entirely due to the individual.