Evaluating growth options as sources of value for pharmaceutical research projects

The financial value of research projects is difficult to assess because they are highly uncertain. Often, the result is either an overly conservative approach to strategic innovation, based on net present value analyses, or an overly aggressive approach based on optimistic qualitative portfolios. R&D project evaluation requires recognizing threats as well as opportunities from uncertain events, and incorporating flexibility in managerial action in response to them. Real options pricing analysis is a widely discussed tool for evaluating such managerial flexibility. The limitation of options pricing lies in its requirement for complete financial markets, in which a replicating asset can be found that reproduces (or, at least, is correlated with) the project’s payoffs in all possible states of the world. However, the major risks of research projects are typically project specific and cannot be replicated in external markets. In this situation, a decision tree is a better tool to represent managerial options during execution of the project, and to evaluate its value. A decision tree is equivalent to options pricing for risks that can be priced in the financial markets (if trading of securities is explicitly included), and moreover, it can incorporate risks and flexibility that are not traded in financial markets. Using decision trees, we demonstrate a quantitative evaluation of compound growth options from research at BestPharma, a large international pharmaceutical company. A growth option is a future opportunity that may arise from a current R&D investment. The growth option may not be related to the primary purpose of the R&D project, or not even be directly foreseeable. Kester (1984) has argued that growth options may account for a large part of project value. BestPharma faced the problem of choosing among several strategic research initiatives. They developed a decision tree representation of the projects, which helped to provide transparency about project value and strategic options. Most importantly, carefully thinking through the tree helped to identify growth options, represented by additional branches in the tree, and to quantify that they represented major sources of value.     

Personenorientierte Medienrezeption: Ein Zwei-Ebenen-Modell parasozialer Interaktionen

Since its original formulation in 1956 by Horton and Wohl, the concept of parasocial interaction has received remarkable attention among communication scholars. However, it still suffers from a range of desiderata and lacks a coherent theoretical foundation that could guide empirical research. In this article, we present a two-level model of parasocial interaction (PSI) that is intended to lead to a better understanding of the processes of PSI. By refering to theories of media and social psychology, two levels are distinguished: «Low-Level-PSI» comprise the less intensive, superficial modes of media person perception whereas «High-Level-PSI» refer to intensive and elaborated forms of interpersonal involvement with a media character. Both levels are discussed in terms of cognitive, emotional and conative processes which characterize person-oriented media reception. Subsequently, media factors as well as individual characteristics are introduced which are likely to facilitate the intensity of PSI processes as reception is going on. The article concludes with a prospect about useful further developments of the two-level model as well as its implications for empirical audience and reception studies.     

The emergence of the Euro-company: towards a European industrial relations?

The growth of European-scale companies represents a further centralisation of management organisation in large enterprises. But processes of decentralisation are also evident. Implications of these opposing trends for labour relations are unclear. Taking account of differences between national systems, the article considers two paths that management approaches could follow.     

Multinational companies in the EU and European Works Councils

In June the EU Council of Ministers (excluding the UK) took up a common position concerning European Works Councils. The establishment of such Councils would grant certain information and consultation rights to the workers of multinational companies. The following paper looks at the importance of MNCs in the EU and tries to assess the extent to which European Works Councils could cope with the social problems arising in these MNCs.     

Trades outside the quotes: Reporting delay,trading option,or trade size?

In the period 1993 through 2002 examined in this study, quoted and effective spreads declined substantially on Nasdaq and to a lesser degree on the NYSE. At the same time, however, trades outside the quotes increased dramatically on Nasdaq. Because investors would prefer to trade at the quotes rather than outside the quotes, we examine why trades outside the quotes are observed. We focus on how the continuous market mechanism itself influences the outcome of orders and the reporting of trades, and we conclude that slippage exists in the market mechanism. Outside-trades occur on Nasdaq, first, because of delays in reporting trades, second, because the ability of dealers to delay execution of trades creates a look-back option, which when exercised results in outside-trades, and third, because large trades can take place at prices outside the quotes. Outside-trades are rarely observed on the NYSE because the market is more centralized. While the pattern of trading on the NYSE is not inconsistent with the presence of a look-back option, our tests provide no direct evidence that specialists are exercising such an option.     

Mix-Up: Models of Governance and Framing Opportunities in U.S. and EU Consumer Policy

Students of comparative politics have highlighted different styles of regulation in the U.S. and Europe. These differences also apply to consumer policy and its different models of governance. The paper holds that governance is a key variable but adds aspects of issue framing. Two examples of consumer policy are analysed: regulation of genetically modified organisms and tobacco control. The case studies show that features of governance such as adversarial legalism or the precautionary principle are not necessarily linked to distinctive styles of regulation. Instead they vary across policy fields. Only a mix of governance elements and framing opportunities for interest groups can explain output and new directions of consumer policy. Dilemmas of collective action appear to be shrinking for consumers because framing trumps mobilization of members.     

Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find evidence of forecaster herding. On the contrary, forecasters anti‐herd and, thereby, tend to intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus forecast. The extent of anti‐herding seems to vary over time. We also found that more pronounced anti‐herding leads to less accurate forecasts.     

Market power in Austrian food retailing: the case of milk products

An increasing market concentration in food retailing has generated concerns about the market power of retailers towards consumers and input suppliers. This is especially true for countries such as Austria, which has a CR-3 in food retailing greater than 75%. Based on a New Empirical Industrial Organization model we estimate the market power of food retailers towards consumers and input suppliers with respect to three groups of dairy products (drinking milk, cheese, butter including others). Our empirical results suggest that market power of retailing exists towards consumers (in particular in the case of drinking milk) and towards input suppliers (in particular in the case of butter and other milk products). Market power is more significant (in statistical terms) downstream than upstream. However, the impact of oligopsony power on input prices is stronger than the impact of oligopoly power on consumer prices.