Insurance Market Dynamics: Between Global Developments and Local Contingencies

Insurance markets have changed radically and deeply in the past twenty years. Deregulation, globalization of insurance institutions, intensified competition, electronic commerce, bancassurance, and the emergence of new risks are among the challenges faced by insurance markets. Although important global trends are reshaping insurance markets, the emphasis on globalization overlooks the local diversity of insurance markets worldwide. This article reviews the global developments and local factors affecting insurance markets and evaluates the advantages and disadvantages of globalization. Among the important global trends are the increasing sophistication of insurance products, the globalization of risk diversification through reinsurance, the emergence of mega-financial intermediaries, and the growing importance of supranational agencies such as the World Bank and the World Trade Organization. On the other hand, there remains significant heterogeneity among countries and regions that has a profound impact on insurance markets. Among the important local differences are political, legal, and cultural components as well as differences in financial markets, taxation, regulatory systems, insurer investment strategies, and insurance distribution systems.     

Living to 100 and Beyond: Implications of Longer Life Spans

Abstract

Life spans have increased remarkably in the last century. There is substantial disagreement and uncertainty among researchers today about the future course of mortality in the developed countries. Will we continue to live ever-longer lives, or is the human life span headed toward a biological upper limit? The answer to this question has important implications for the elderly, their spouses and children, businesses, and our society as a whole. Continued growth in life expectancy with good health would extend our ability to enjoy all the things we cherish.

Simultaneously, this growth would increase our need to prepare carefully for some unexpected challenges. Among these challenges is a greater need by individuals to save for retirement and to prepare for the possibility of becoming dependent upon family members and others for one’s care. Businesses will enjoy access to experienced workers and expanding markets among the elderly, while they also will try to control the post employment costs that longer life spans will generate. Finally, governments will struggle to manage competing interests as the financial needs of the elderly are weighed against other societal obligations.     

Contents of Volume 7

Volume Contents

Contents of Volume 7     

Securitization, Insurance, and Reinsurance

This article considers strengths and weaknesses of reinsurance and securitization in managing insurable risks. Traditional reinsurance operates efficiently in managing relatively small, uncorrelated risks and in facilitating efficient information sharing between cedants and reinsurers. However, when the magnitude of potential losses and the correlation of risks increase, the efficiency of the reinsurance model breaks down, and the cost of capital may become uneconomical. At this juncture, securitization has a role to play by passing the risks along to broader capital markets. Securitization also serves as a complement for reinsurance in other ways such as facilitating regulatory arbitrage and collateralizing low-frequency risks.     

Fuzzy Financial Pricing of Property-Liability Insurance

Abstract

This paper uses fuzzy set theory (FST) to solve a problem in actuarial science, the financial pricing of property-liability insurance contracts. The fundamental concept of FST is the alternative formalization of membership in a set to include the degree or strength of membership. FST provides consistent mathematical rules for incorporating vague, subjective, or judgmental information into complex decision processes. It is potentially important in insurance pricing because much of the information about cash flows, future economic conditions, risk premiums, and other factors affecting the pricing decision is subjective and thus difficult to quantify by using conventional methods. To illustrate the use of FST, we “fuzzify” a well-known insurance financial pricing model, provide numerical examples of fuzzy pricing, and propose rules for project decision-making using FST. The results indicate that FST can lead to significantly different decisions than the conventional approach.     

Alternative Models for Estimating the Cost of Equity Capital for Property/Casualty Insurers

This paper estimates the cost of equity capital for Property/Casualty insurers by applying three alternative asset pricing models: the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), and a unified CAPM/APT model (Wei (1988). The in-sample forecast ability of the models is evaluated by applying the mean squared error method, the Theil U2 (1966) statistic, and the Granger and Newbold (1978) conditional efficiency evaluation. Based on forecast evaluation procedures, the APT and Wei's unified CAPM/APT models perform better than the CAPM in estimating the cost of equity capital for the PC insurers and a combined forecast may outperform the individual forecasts.     

The Economics of Insurance Intermediaries

This article analyzes the economic functions of independent insurance intermediaries (brokers and independent agents), focusing on the commercial property–casualty insurance market. The article investigates the functions performed by intermediaries, the competitiveness of the market, the compensation arrangements for intermediaries, and the process by which policies are placed with insurers. Insurance intermediaries are essentially market makers who match the insurance needs of policyholders with insurers who have the capability of meeting those needs. Intermediary compensation comprises premium‐based commissions, expressed as a percentage of the premium paid, and contingent commissions based on the profitability, persistency, and/or volume of the business placed with the insurer. Empirical evidence is provided that premium‐based and contingent commissions are passed on to policyholders in the premium. However, contingent commissions can enhance competitive bidding by aligning the insurer's and the intermediary's interests. This alignment of interests gives insurers more confidence in the selection of risks and thus helps to break the “winner's curse” and encourages insurers to bid more aggressively. Independent intermediaries also help markets operate more efficiently by reducing the information asymmetries between insurers and buyers that can cause adverse selection.     

The effect of organizational structure on efficiency: Evidence from the Spanish insurance industry

This paper provides new information on the effects of organizational structure on efficiency by analyzing Spanish stock and mutual insurers over the period 1989–1997. We test the efficient structure hypothesis, which predicts that the market will sort organizational forms into market segments where they have comparative advantages, and the expense preference hypothesis, which predicts that mutuals will be less efficient than stocks. Technical, cost, and revenue frontiers are estimated using data envelopment analysis. The results indicate that stocks and mutuals are operating on separate production, cost, and revenue frontiers and thus represent distinct technologies. In cost and revenue efficiency, stocks of all sizes dominate mutuals in the production of stock output vectors, and smaller mutuals dominate stocks in the production of mutual output vectors. Larger mutuals are neither dominated by nor dominant over stocks in the cost and revenue comparisons. Thus, large mutuals appear to be vulnerable to competition from stock insurers in Spain. Overall, the results are consistent with the efficient structure hypothesis but are generally not consistent with the expense preference hypothesis.     

A high-frequency analysis of price resolution and pricing barriers in equities on the adoption of a new currency

We use ultra high frequency (trade by trade) data to demonstrate that equity price clustering and pricing predictability around psychologically important prices in Greece switches away from drachma-focused with the introduction of the euro, but does not immediately switch to euro-clustering. The change in trader price focus around the euro introduction addresses an open debate in the clustering literature on whether the presence of clustering is a bias related to the current prices or anchoring to past prices. Our findings of a decline in drachma clustering, but lack of switch to euro effects supports the case for clustering being a trading feature that is slow to transfer to new pricing regimes. A key advantage of the ultra high frequency dataset is we are also able to demonstrate the presence of psychological pricing barriers related to each currency that are not detectable in daily data.