What Drives Public Employment in Developing Countries?

An excessive level of employment is a frequent complaint made about public-sector governance in developing economies. The explanation typically offered is that governments use public-sector employment as a tool for generating and redistributing rents. This article suggests an alternative hypothesis: relatively safe government jobs represent partial insurance againstundiversifiable external risk faced by the domestic economy. I show that countries that are greatly exposed to external risk have higher levels of government employment and have experienced faster rates of growth of government consumption. The basic finding on this (partial) correlation is robust against the hypotheses typically offered.     

Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses

This article argues that domestic social conflicts are a key to understanding why growth rates lack persistence and why so many countries have experienced a growth collapse since the mid-1970s. It emphasizes, in particular, the manner in which social conflicts interact with external shock on the one hand, and the domestic institutions of conflict-management on the other. Econometric evidence provides support for this hypothesis. Countries that experienced the sharpest drops in growth after 1975 were those with divided societies (as measured by indicators of inequality, ethnic fragmentation, and the like) and with weak institutions of conflict management (proxied by indicators of the quality of governmental institutions, rule of law, democratic rights, and social safety nets).