Where to vacation? An agent-based approach to modelling tourist decision-making process

Agent-based models (ABMs) are becoming more relevant in social simulation due to the potential to model complex phenomena that emerge from individual interactions. In tourism research, complexity is a subject of growing interest and researchers start to analyse the tourism system as a complex phenomenon. However, there is little application of ABMs as a tool to explore and predict tourism patterns. The purpose of the paper is to develop an ABM that increases knowledge in tourism research by (i) considering the complexity of tourism phenomenon, (ii) providing tools to explore the complex relations between system components and (iii) giving insights on the functioning of the system and the tourist decision-making process. A theoretical ABM is developed to improve knowledge on tourist decision-making in the selection of a destination to vacation. Tourists’ behaviour, such as individual motivation, and social network influence in the vacation decision-making process are hereby discussed.     

Backpackers in Hong Kong – motivations,preferences and contribution to sustainable tourism

This paper examines the backpacker market in Hong Kong, in terms of profile, motivation, preferences, and contribution to sustainable tourism development. The purpose is to provide an understanding of this market to help in marketing and promoting services and products that meet backpackers’ needs as part of expanding Hong Kong’s target market. Currently, Hong Kong relies on tourists from mainland China and recent reports reveal the issue of social conflicts between mainland tourists and Hong Kong residents. Based on a survey of backpackers in youth hostels and hiking trails in Hong Kong, this study revealed that backpackers are pushed by the search for new ideas and pulled by the uniquefood culture of Hong Kong, preferring to experience such a unique food culture in a traditional setting. Moreover, they are less likely to spend on international brands in Hong Kong as part of promoting sustainable tourism development.     

Competing on the edge: Implications of network position for internationalizing small- and medium-sized enterprises

Three generic competitive strategies attributed to internationalizing SMEs of targeting niches, differentiating products and leveraging networks fail to adequately explain how SMEs win customers in other countries against both large and small competitors. This study distinguishes competitive strategy (how firms compete) from competitive advantage, and from competitive engagements where firms deploy their competitive advantages to win customers within business network relationships. By abductively reasoning from the competitive engagements entered into by the internationalizing SMEs from the Fleet Management Systems industry segment in New Zealand, we show that these firms often compete with foreign rivals by using their position on the edge of a business network to leverage information asymmetries across structural holes. We contribute by integrating this conception of internationalizing SME competitive strategy with the business network foundations of the Uppsala internationalization process model.     

Dynamic programming for valuing American options under a variance-gamma process

Lévy processes provide a solution to overcome the shortcomings of the lognormal hypothesis. A growing literature proposes the use of pure-jump Lévy processes, such as the variance-gamma (VG) model. In this setting, explicit solutions for derivative prices are unavailable, for instance, for the valuation of American options. We propose a dynamic programming approach coupled with finite elements for valuing American-style options under an extended VG model. Our numerical experiments confirm the convergence and show the efficiency of the proposed methodology. We also conduct a numerical investigation that focuses on American options on S&P 500 futures contracts.     

Organizational harm,legal condemnation and stakeholder retaliation: A typology,research agenda and application

The essence of the ethical issues pertinent to business activities is the harm or benefit that occurs as part of a company's resource transformation process. A typology is developed that sorts ethical issues according to three variables: (1) the nature of the harm, (2) the nature of those harmed and (3) the transformation stage where the harm occurs. Propositions are formulated that would enable analysts and practitioners to predict the degree of legal condemnation of, and stakeholder retaliation to, harms generated by questionable moral reasoning. An organizational harm analysis is then constructed as a decision making tool that could supplement cost/benefit analysis.Denis Collins is a Doctoral Candidate at the Katz Graduate School of Business of the University of Pittsburgh and a Research Associate with the BG Productivity and Gainsharing Institute. He has published several articles in the areas of business ethics, social philosophy and participatory management.     

Quantiles of the Euler Scheme for Diffusion Processes and Financial Applications

In this paper we briefly present the results obtained in our paper ( Talay and Zheng 2002a ) on the convergence rate of the approximation of quantiles of the law of one component of  ( X_t )  , where  ( X_t )  is a diffusion process, when one uses a Monte Carlo method combined with the Euler discretization scheme. We consider the case where  ( X_t )  is uniformly hypoelliptic (in the sense of Condition (UH) below), or the inverse of the Malliavin covariance of the component under consideration satisfies the condition (M) below. We then show that Condition (M) seems widely satisfied in applied contexts. We particularly study financial applications: the computation of quantiles of models with stochastic volatility, the computation of the VaR of a portfolio, and the computation of a model risk measurement for the profit and loss of a misspecified hedging strategy.     

Short reviews

Bynner, J. and Roberts, K. (eds), 1991: Youth and Work: Transition to Employment in England and Germany, London: Anglo-German Foundation, £17 paper. Available from BEBC, 15 Albion Close, Parkstone, Poole, Dorset BH12 3LL

Brah, A. and Shaw, S. 1992: Working Choices: South Asian Young Muslim Women and the Labour Market, Sheffield: Department of Employment Research Paper No 91, free.     

Fertilizer demand in Greece

Limiting fertilizer use is becoming an important policy objective world-wide. However, the debate on appropriate policy measures is far from settled and evidence on fertilizer demand elasticities is still insufficient. Past studies on fertilizer demand leave several methodological and empirical issues open. This paper aims to contribute to the debate on the methodology of estimating fertilizer demand using single-equation methods. Dynamic aspects are also considered using error-correction modelling methodology and cointegration techniques. The model is applied using data front Greece. Short-run and long-run price elasticities of fertilizer demand with respect to own price and to output prices show significant response to price changes and the adjustment coefficient of fertilizer use to the error-correction term was found to be fairly rapid. The main policy conclusion of the paper is that reducing agricultural support may be an alternative and, perhaps, more effective way of reducing fertilizer demand than increasing fertilizer prices.