Using accounting earnings and aggregate economic indicators to estimate firm-level systematic risk

Review of Accounting Studies - We revisit the literature on using accounting earnings to estimate firm-level systematic risk, using macroeconomic indicators rather than listed-firm indexes to...     

Correction to: using accounting earnings and aggregate economic indicators to estimate firm-level systematic risk

Review of Accounting Studies - A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-021-09637-1     

Are Momentum Profits Robust to Trading Costs?

We test whether momentum strategies remain profitable after considering market frictions induced by trading. Intraday data are used to estimate alternative measures of proportional and non-proportional (price impact) trading costs. The price impact models imply that abnormal returns to portfolio strategies decline with portfolio size. We calculate break-even fund sizes that lead to zero abnormal returns. In addition to equal- and value-weighted momentum strategies, we derive a liquidity-weighted strategy designed to reduce the cost of trades. Equal-weighted strategies perform the best before trading costs and the worst after trading costs. Liquidity-weighted and hybrid liquidity/value-weighted strategies have the largest break-even fund sizes: $5 billion or more (relative to December 1999 market capitalization) may be invested in these momentum strategies before the apparent profit opportunities vanish.     

Unskilled Migration: A Burden or a Boon for the Welfare State?

As relatively low earners, migrants are net beneficiaries of the welfare state. Therefore, in a static setup, migration may be resisted by the entire native-born population. However, it is shown that in a dynamic setup with a pension system, which is an important pillar of any welfare state, migration is beneficial to all income (high and low) and all age (old and young) groups, when the economy has good access to international capital markets. The pro-migration feature of the dynamic model is weakened and possibly overturned when the economy does not have good access to such markets. In this case, to the extent that factor prices are significantly affected by migration because of low substitution between labour and capital, low-skill native born and possibly also high-skill native born may lose.     

Vintage capital and creditor protection

We provide novel evidence linking the level of creditor protection provided by law to the degree of usage of technologically older, vintage capital in the airline industry. Using a panel of aircraft-level data around the world, we find that better creditor rights are associated with both aircraft of a younger vintage and newer technology, as well as firms with larger aircraft fleets. We propose that by mitigating financial shortfalls, enhanced legal protection of creditors facilitates the ability of firms to make large capital investments, adapt advanced technologies, and foster productivity.     

Increasing Dependency Ratios, Pensions and Tax Smoothing

The implication of increasing dependency ratios for pay–as–you–go, defined–benefit pension programmes are examined. Modifications aimed at smoothing contributions while maintaining benefits intact are analysed for both open and closed economies.
(J.E.L.: H2, F3, J1).     

Welfare criteria for tax reforms: Efficiency aspects

This paper provides unexpected support to Nash's view of how bargaining determines the social choice. We first present a spatial model of electoral competition with probabilistic voting and a very close relation between voters' preferences and their choice probabilities. The outcome of the electoral competition game is then shown to be precisely the social alternative that maximizes a Nash-type social welfare function (theorem 1). This electoral outcome is also interpreted as a unanimity likelihood maximum (corollary 1). Within our framework, existence and uniqueness of such an outcome are guaranteed (corollaries 2 and 3).     

The divergence of liquidity commonality in the cross-section of stocks

This paper demonstrates that the cross-sectional variation of liquidity commonality has increased over the period 1963–2005. The divergence of systematic liquidity can be explained by patterns in institutional ownership over the sample period. We document that our findings are associated with similar patterns in systematic risk. Our analysis also indicates that the ability to diversify systematic risk and aggregate liquidity shocks by holding large-cap stocks has declined. The evidence suggests that the fragility of the US equity market to unanticipated events has increased over the past few decades.