Forecasting demand for electricity in Maryland: An econometric approach

Most of the models for forecasting demand for energy are based on simple extrapolations of past trends or on a simple regression equation with price of the energy and the stock of appliances as explanatory variables. In this paper, an attempt has been made to derive static and dynamic multiple regression equations from economic theory of consumption and production (Section II). Historical data were fitted to these theoretical constructs to test the equations in terms of econometric theory and forecast the demand according to “higher order conditional interval forecasts”. The residential demand for electricity is a function of its price, price of its substitute, per capita income and a lagged demand variable for dynamic adjustment of actual demand to equilibrium demand for electricity. The forecasts of residential demand to 1990 are based on projections of exogenous variables such as residential price of electricity, per capita income and the estimated long run elasticity of demand (Section III). The nonresidential demand for electricity is a function of employment in that sector, sectoral prices of electricity and the lagged sectoral demand. The forecasts of nonresidential electricity demand are also based on projections of its independent variables (Section IV). The last section converts the total demand for electricity into the required generating capacities and juxtaposes them against the estimates of expected supplies available from the forecasts of the utilities. The paper concludes that the eighties will be faced with excess supply of electricity in Maryland, in case the assumptions of projections of independent variables hold good. The misallocation of resources inherent in such excess supplies could be avoided if realistic scenerios of future demand, as attempted in this paper, could be predicted.     

Nurse managers as transformational and transactional leaders

Nurse managers demonstrating transformational leadership are more likely than transactional leaders to have committed staff nurse followers. Committed followers exert extra effort, thus improving unit performance and enhancing the organization's competitive advantage.     

Resolving post-formation challenges in shared IJVs: The impact of shared IJV structure on inter-partner relationships

The “50/50”, or the shared management international joint venture (shared IJV) remains a popular and yet challenging control structure to govern IJVs. The purpose of this study is to understand the post-formation management of shared IJVs, specifically the relationship between shared structure, relational conditions and management of post-formation challenges. Our evidence is based on 26 in-depth interviews across four cases of shared IJVs between British multinationals and Asian companies. Our findings indicate that the highly integrative nature of shared IJVs, including high operational interdependence and shared decision-making, encourages partners to work closely together, communicate frequently and intensely and exchange personnel. Although share management can lead to inter-partner conflicts, the equal investment and mutual responsibility partly provides partners with motivation and opportunities to learn about each other, to better implement the control structure, to build trust, and to commit to the venture and partner. These relational conditions facilitated the successful management of post-formation challenges such as diversity related conflicts and macro volatility.     

Management Guidance Pre‐ and Post‐Restatement

We examine whether the quality of restating firms’ management guidance differs in periods before and after restatement announcements. While characteristics of restating firms and the consequences of restatement have been a central topic in accounting and auditing research, the quality of management guidance around restatements is less well understood. We consider two competing characterizations of the link between management forecast accuracy and bias and restatement (an event that tends to signal poor financial controls): “Forecast–Opportunism Explanation” and “Forecast–Ability Explanation”. Under the Forecast–Opportunism Explanation, pre‐restatement weaknesses in financial controls enable managers to manipulate earnings toward forecasts and to meet or exceed opportunistically biased forecasts, and the post‐restatement strengthening of financial controls constrains opportunistic behavior. Under the Forecast–Ability Explanation, pre‐restatement weaknesses in financial controls impede managers’ ability to issue accurate forecasts, and post‐restatement improvements remove impediments so that the accuracy of forecasts improves; forecast bias remains unaffected. Evidence indicates that before a restatement, restating firms’ forecasts are more accurate and relatively more downwardly biased than control firms’ forecasts. Post‐restatement, restating firms have less accurate and less downwardly biased management guidance. Our overall results are consistent with the Forecast–Opportunism Explanation.     

Store environment and consumer purchase behavior: Mediating role of consumer emotions

This article presents a large-scale cross-sectional field study of the effect of store environment on consumer emotions and the resulting influence on aspects of consumer behavior with actual shopping behavior used as an example. Cast into a stimulus–organism–response framework, the results suggest that a consumer's emotions can be a mediating factor in the purchase process. In this study, we identify and explore how store environment and emotional states may influence various dimensions of purchase behavior. This research confirms that although cognitive factors may largely account for store selection and for most planned purchases within the store, the environment in the store and the emotional state of consumers may be important determinants of purchase behavior. This research has many pragmatic applications, because pleasure was associated with the amount of money spent and affinity for the store, whereas arousal was associated with money spent in the store, time spent in the store, and the number of items purchased in the store. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

An investigation of the giving behavior of loyal,lapsed, and non‐givers to a religious organization

• This paper provides a comparative study of the giving behavior of current donors (CDs), lapsed donors (LDs), and non‐donors (NDs) in a Catholic diocese in New England. Focus groups were conducted and surveys were administered to Catholics to compare the attitudes and behaviors of lapsed and active donors as well as those who had not given to a recent diocesan annual campaign. The results show significant differences between the groups. Active donors indicate a much greater level of satisfaction with the church, are more aware of its programs, and feel they are more recognized for their gifts than do lapsed or NDs. These findings suggest that relationship fundraising, and creating trust, are critical to forging and maintaining valued donor relationships. The program implemented by the diocese as a result of the study is described.
• Marketing for religious organizations
• Lapsed donors
• Nonprofit marketing
• Marketing for churches

Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do VCs matter? the importance of owners on performance variance in start‐up firms

Adding to the corporate effect literature, we study the effect of owners on firm performance in a new context, that of venture capital firms (VCs) and the start‐up firms in which they invest. After discussing the effect that VC ownership can have on start‐ups, we estimate that start‐up‐specific, owner (VC), and year effects account for significant variance in performance (26.3 percent, 11.2 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively). The effects of industry and investment stage are not statistically different from zero. We also provide an analysis that separates the owner effect into two components: a selection component—which impacts investment—and a management component—which explains significant variance in performance. By examining the owner effect in a different institutionalized form of governance—that of the start‐up and its relationship to VC owners—our study also contributes to an understanding of the ‘ownership’ effect in the strategy literature more generally. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diet Firms Score Where Coke,Walmart Fumbled

After trying numerous self-concocted diets, 54-year-old Elena Farley has finally lost 47 lbs. and 40 inches--amove she credits not to self-discipline or an intense weight loss regimen, but with joining and sticking with an online community.