Feature selection methods involving support vector machines for prediction of insolvency in non‐life insurance companies

We propose two novel approaches for feature selection and ranking tasks based on simulated annealing (SA) and Walsh analysis, which use a support vector machine as an underlying classifier. These approaches are inspired by one of the key problems in the insurance sector: predicting the insolvency of a non‐life insurance company. This prediction is based on accounting ratios, which measure the health of the companies. The approaches proposed provide a set of ratios (the SA approach) and a ranking of the ratios (the Walsh analysis ranking) that would allow a decision about the financial state of each company studied. The proposed feature selection methods are applied to the prediction the insolvency of several Spanish non‐life insurance companies, yielding state‐of‐the‐art results in the tests performed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Artificial neural networks with feature transformation based on domain knowledge for the prediction of stock index futures

A feature transformation method based on domain knowledge for arti?cial neural networks (ANNs) is proposed. The method of feature transformation based on domain knowledge converts continuous values into discrete values in accordance with the knowledge of experts in speci?c application domains. This approach effectively ?lters data, trains the classi?er, and extracts the rules from the classi?er. In addition, it reduces the dimensionality of the feature space, which not only decreases the cost and time in the operation but also enhances the generalizability of the classi?er. The experimental results of the proposed approach will be compared and tested statistically with the results of the linear transformation method. The results show that the method of feature transformation based on domain knowledge outperforms the linear transformation in modelling of ANNs. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The service sector of Cuba: An analysis and critique

The Cuban economy has experienced a significant increase in foreign direct investment over the past decade due to the end of the Soviet Union and the establishment of more liberal trade policies. Although the U.S. embargo of trade with Cuba still exists, there has been movement lately that suggests the end of the four‐decades‐old policy. The purpose of this article is to analyze the current Cuban business environment and to identify potential entrepreneurial opportunities in the service sector. Major trade partners are also reviewed and managerial implications discussed. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

陕西区域经济发展水平的聚类分析

本文以陕西省十个地级市及杨凌示范区为研究对象,选取反映区域经济发展水平的重要指标,通过对原始数据的采集处理,运用系统聚类分析的方法对社会经济发展水平进行聚类.最终将陕西省各地级市的经济发展水平划分为5类,分别进行客观评价,并就经济发展不平衡的现状提出了一些相应的对策建议,以期为有关部门的政策制定提供参考.     

物权法中“私权保护”的新亮点及意义

物权法是国家的基本财产法，其最重要的任务就是界定及保护私权。2007年3月16日被高票表决通过的《中华人民共和国物权法》，是一部具有里程碑意义的法律。其冲破中国传统制度与观念，对公民私权保护提出许多切实可行的新制度。这些制度的设立对保护广大人民群众的根本利益。促进社会和谐有着重要意义。     

This is what the leading indicators lead

We propose an optimal filter to transform the Conference Board Composite Leading Index (CLI) into recession probabilities in the US economy. We also analyse the CLI's accuracy at anticipating US output growth. We compare the predictive performance of linear, VAR extensions of smooth transition regression and switching regimes, probit, non‐parametric models and conclude that a combination of the switching regimes and non‐parametric forecasts is the best strategy at predicting both the NBER business cycle schedule and GDP growth. This confirms the usefulness of CLI, even in a real‐time analysis. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The system of Ferney: A fable

This paper is an allegorical essay which attempts to provide a critical perspective on systems analysis. It employs both the language and rationale of systems analysis within the structure of the fable. More specifically, it uses the schematic representation of The World Model (found in the Meadows, et al., The Limits to Growth) as the political and social divisions of the Ferney System. The integrating tool for technological assessment within this metaphorical system is the Delphi Method of Futures Research. Expert opinion-consensus serves as the chief mode of governance. The actual history of Ferney, within the fable, is a loop feedback process.     

东北经济的未来选择与发展战略

东北老工业基地通常是指东北地区的传统工业格局，为了使东北经济能够步入良性发展轨道，从而振兴东北地区。本文针对东北经济发展现状及其面临的艰难选择，对东北经济的未来发展方向进行了科学分析，并提出了东北经济未来发展战略。     

Linking Public Investment to Private Investment. The Case of Spanish Regions

Public investment constitutes one of the main instruments of regional policies. The existence of a direct link between infrastructure and regional income per capita is usually accepted. Literature also describes a positive effect of public investment on private capital accumulation. This paper seeks to provide new empirical evidence on this latter relationship for the case of Spanish regions over the period 1965–1997 using panel data methodology. The results show a positive effect of productive and social public investment (especially in education) on private investment. The spillover effects generated by the productive infrastructures located in other regions do not seem to encourage the private investment in neighbouring regions. Public consumption and interest rate exert a negative influence on private capital accumulation. These results are robust to changes in the econometric specification.