Evaluating Expert Systems in a Financial Domain: A Study Demonstrating Issues in Case Selection,Validation Standards and Evaluator Bias

This article describes and generalizes a validation study of four commercially available personal financial planning expert systems and the rationale for the research methodology used. Our evaluation of these systems adds to the understanding of verification and validation issues related to case selection, validation standards and evaluator bias. The article describes the systems, their domain and the empirical method—field tests using hypothetical cases—and relates that method to the literature. Comparing same-task systems combines multiple system perspectives and multiple models. Our methodology did efficiently and effectively identify conflicting terminology, omissions and system weaknesses but was inadequate for comparing the complex plan recommendations. The results re-emphasize the importance of continual knowledge base updating, formal system testing and the need for external evaluation. The results also show the value of comparing multiple, same-task systems.     

Agricultural development and the distribution of water resources in Kgatleng District,Botswana

During Botswana's four decades of high levels of growth the agricultural sector has lagged behind, with smallholder productivity being especially poor. This paper applies an equity perspective: its main claim is that one important explanation for the current lack of agricultural development is the unequal distribution of agricultural resources. It takes into account both the national institutional structure, which promotes widespread inequality, and the distribution of boreholes and water resources on the communal grazing range in Kgatleng District. It argues that ever since the first administrative effort to develop water resources in the 1920s the country's official policy and legislation has directly or indirectly favoured the large-scale farmers over the smallholders and, further, that customary property rights principles have supported the process that has led to today's institutional inequality.     

Don't call us,we'll call you: Considering cognitive and physical effort in designing effective response systems to manage extended in-process wait

People must often wait for days or weeks to receive test results, price quotes, products, etc. Service providers may manage user experience during such in-process waits using notification systems that inform users when a response is available or inquiry systems that require users to inquire about response availability, thereby imposing prospective memory requirements on users. Based on the prospective memory and wait time literature, we make predictions regarding how response system (notification vs. inquiry) moderates the effects of waits that are shorter or longer than the provider promised on user evaluation of the wait. We find that users of a notification system evaluate a wait more positively and are less sensitive to deviations of actual from promised wait time than are users of an inquiry system. This advantage was more pronounced for a wait that was longer (vs. shorter) than promised. These effects of system and expectation on evaluation were fully mediated by their impact on the cognitive and physical effort of navigating the system. Finally, a week after having experienced a wait, users of an inquiry system who had waited longer (vs. shorter) than promised cooperated less on a follow-up task, highlighting another downside of using an inquiry system.     

Are structural VARs with long-run restrictions useful in developing business cycle theory?

No, unless technology shocks account for virtually all of the fluctuations in output.     

Changes in bonus contracts in the post-Sarbanes–Oxley era

We examine whether the relation between earnings and bonuses changes after Sarbanes–Oxley. Theory predicts that, as the financial reporting system reduces the discretion allowed managers, firms will put more weight on earnings in compensation contracts to encourage effort. However, the increased risk imposed by Sarbanes–Oxley on executives may cause firms to temper this contracting outcome. We examine and find support for the joint hypothesis that the implementation of Sarbanes–Oxley and related reforms led to a decrease in earnings management and that firms responded by placing more weight on earnings in bonus contracts. We find no evidence that firms changed compensation contracts to compensate executives for assuming more risk.     

Judging the relevance of deductive inquiry: The central role of theory

Abstract

This article argues that the relevance of deductive research is best judged according to how well it serves theory. This unavoidable basic tenet is examined for its implications to the practice of traditional social science: (a) that theory building would be a valued activity; (b) that scholars would focus on elaborating and critiquing a small number of influential theories; (c) that research papers would be theory based and hypothesis driven; and (d) that other aspects of relevance that deductive researchers now wish to embrace (e.g., social responsibility and practicality) are dependent on good theory.     

Executive Gender Pay Gaps: The Roles of Female Risk Aversion and Board Representation

Using a large sample of executives in S&P 1500 firms over 1996–2010, we document significant salary and total compensation gaps between female and male executives and explore two possible explanations for the gaps. We find support for greater female risk aversion as one contributing factor. Female executives hold significantly lower equity incentives and demand larger salary premiums for bearing a given level of compensation risk. These results suggest that females’ risk aversion contributes to the observed lower pay levels through its effect on ex ante compensation structures. We also find evidence that the lack of gender diversity on corporate boards affects the size of the gaps. In firms with a higher proportion of female directors on the board, the gaps in salary and total pay levels are lower. Together, these findings suggest that female higher risk aversion may act as a barrier to full pay convergence, despite the mitigating effect from greater gender diversity on the board.     

Supplier integration in new product development: Computer mediated communication,knowledge exchange and buyer performance

In new product development (NPD), the buyer–supplier relationship is changing. Suppliers are becoming an integral part of the design team. This study investigates the effectiveness of computer-mediated and face-to-face communication channels on knowledge exchange between buyer and supplier firms, and ultimately buyer NPD and market performance. Open innovation literature and media richness theory are used to develop hypotheses which are then empirically tested using data collected from 157 R&D project managers from U.S. manufacturing firms. To date, empirical studies on the link between supplier integration and buyer performance show conflicting results. Structural equation modeling found a significant positive link between knowledge exchange and NPD performance, measured both in terms of effectiveness and efficiency, and a significant positive link between effective and efficient NPD and market performance. A surprising finding is that contrary to media richness theory, email can perform like face-to-face communication transmitting rich information and having a positive relationship to knowledge exchange between buyer and supplier. It was also found that with face-to-face communication, knowledge exchange fully mediates the relationship with effective NPD while with email communication knowledge exchange fully mediates the relationship with efficient NPD. Video conferencing was found to have no significant effect on knowledge exchange and the effect of web-based tools was significant and negative. The implications of these findings in theory and practice are discussed.     

Financial factors and firm growth: evidence from financial data on Taiwanese firms

We investigate the possible predictability of firm growth in Taiwan using cross-sectional data of financial factors for the years 1997 and 2003 via principal component analysis. Our results reveal that the 18 financial variables (sales growth rate, total assets, total sales, return on assets, return on equity, gross margin, operating cost minus depreciation divided by sales plus other trading income, acid test ratio, debt–equity ratio, time interest earned, average receivables per average daily sales, inventory, average payables per average daily sales, working capital, working capital as a fraction of total assets, long-term liabilities as a fraction of total assets, and sales as a fraction of net worth of the firm) that we employ bunch together into five different financial ratios for the years 1997 and 2003 that are stable between these years. These financial factors are short-term liquidity, return on investment, long-term liquidity, firm size and capital turnover. Regressing these ratio groups (extracted principal components) on firm growth, we find return on investment in the year 1997 was positively and significantly related to firm growth, while long-term solvency was negatively related to firm growth. In addition, smaller firms tended to grow faster. By 2003, larger firms grew faster than smaller ones and short-term liquidity was positively and significantly related to firm growth, while return on investment was no longer a significant determining factor. Our findings suggest that firms that finance internally or do not rely too heavily on indebtedness may end up growing slower during boom periods but they are the ones that survive and outperform after the bust.     

Whistle-Blowing for Profit: An Ethical Analysis of the Federal False Claims Act

This paper focuses on the 1986 Amendments to the False Claims Act of 1863, which offers whistle-blowers financial rewards for disclosing fraud committed against the U.S. government. This law provides an opportunity to examine underlying assumptions about the morality of whistle-blowing and to consider the merits of increased reliance on whistle-blowing to protect the public interest. The law seems open to a number of moral objections, most notably that it exerts a morally corrupting influence on whistle-blowers. We answer these objections and argue that the law is not objectionable on these grounds. Since there are no compelling moral objections to the law, it is appropriate and acceptable to judge the law in terms of its economic costs and benefits. We assess the most salient of these and conclude that the benefits outweigh the costs. We suggest that a mechanism similar to the Act should be considered for protecting stockholders’ interests in the private sector. We conclude by making several proposals for improving the existing legislation. The authors' names are listed in alphabetical order. An earlier version of this paper was presented to the Society for Business Ethics August 2004.