New development: The protective role of conservatism in public sector accounting

This article picks up a discussion in international business accounting about the appropriate definition and use of conservatism (or prudence) and calls for a similar discussion in public sector accounting. If financial reports present an overly optimistic situation, politicians might use them to justify spending public money that is not there, risking the sustainability of services and ‘borrowing’ from future generations.     

Survey-based forecast distributions for Euro Area growth and inflation: ensembles versus histograms

Ensemble methods can be used to construct a forecast distribution from a collection of point forecasts. They are used extensively in meteorology, but have received little direct attention in economics. In a real-time analysis of the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, we compare ensemble methods to histogram-based forecast distributions of GDP growth and inflation in the Euro Area. We find that ensembles perform very similarly to histograms, while being simpler to handle in practice. Given the wide availability of surveys that collect point forecasts but not histograms, these results suggest that ensembles deserve further investigation in economics.     

Determinants of TFP growth: A close look at industries driving the EU–US TFP gap

This paper explores the determinants of the EU–US TFP growth gap using EU KLEMS. As found in previous analyses, TFP growth appears to be driven by catching-up phenomena associated with the gradual adoption of new technologies. TFP growth is also significantly driven by developments at the “technological frontier”, especially since the mid-1990s. Industries with higher R&D expenditures and higher adoption rates for ICT-intensive technologies appear to exhibit higher TFP growth rates, whilst human capital has mostly a significant effect across countries. Regarding determinants in industries relevant for the different TFP performance of the EU versus the US, ICT-producing industries appear to benefit from R&D in terms of stronger spillovers from TFP gains at the frontier, network utilities are strongly affected by product market regulations, whilst the retail and wholesale trade industry is significantly influenced by consumption dynamics which permit a better exploitation of scale economies.     

Multi-product firms,product mix changes and upgrading: Evidence from China's state-owned forest areas

Product selection matters for a firm's productivity and long-run growth. Recent theoretical and empirical studies indicate that an important margin of adjustment to policy reforms is the reallocation of output within firms through changes in product mix decisions. This paper examines the frequency, pervasiveness and determinants of product-switching and upgrading activities in firms located in China's state-owned forest areas during a period of gradual institutional and managerial reforms (2004–2008). We find that changes to the product mix are pervasive and characterized by adding or churning products rather than only shedding products. Moreover, changes in firms’ product mix have made a significant contribution to the aggregate output growth during our sample period. We also find that firms with different characteristics, human capital and market conditions differ in their propensity to diversify and upgrade product mix.     

Perceived trust in contractual channel dyads: an exploratory investigation of Finnish food retailers

Distributor firms have found long-term contracting an effective means of gaining competitive advantage. To realize these benefits, the alliance should involve trusting others. However, contracts can also be one-sided rather than reciprocal, favouring the larger business partner. Should trust develop naturally where there are formal contracts defining the terms of the relationship? And what inducements should a supplier take to gain retailers' trust? The trade-off is further complicated when the retailers operate in a small market with few suppliers and high barriers to entry. This study focuses on these questions. We use original field data from Finnish food retailers who have signed a written agreement with their focal wholesaler. We find that maintaining autonomy increases trust in the relationship. We also find that regular communication in the dyad and balance between perceived rewards and contributions are associated with higher levels of trust. In turn, intrachannel competition strongly reduces retailers' trust in the dyad.