Economic sanctions and trade diversions in Sudan

The latest episode of the armed conflict between Northern and Southern Sudan erupted in 1983 and ended with the signing of the ＂Comprehensive Peace Agreement （CPA）＂ in 2005. The CPA allows for a referendum on independence for South Sudan in 2011. A similar scenario is possible for Darfur, where an armed conflict broke out in 2003 over demands for greater decentralization and development in the region. The peace agreement between the central government and the Eastern Sudan region continues to be fragile, and the risk of escalation of across the border spillovers of conflicts with Uganda and Chad persists. The U.S., EU, among other global players, is putting pressure on the Khartoum government to change its policies. Economic sanctions are among the tools used by the U.S. government while encouraging others follow suit. This paper investigates the response of the Sudanese economy to eliminating trade flows with the EU in the first phase and with East-Asian countries in the second. It discusses the changes in the macro-indicators, trade variables and welfare measures that would result. Moreover, it assesses the potential trade diversion and resource reallocation due to sanctions in each phase. To simulate these scenarios, detailed economic databases for Sudan, EU, East-Asian region, MENA, COMESA and the rest of the world are needed. For this purpose, GTAP Africa database and the standard GTAP model are employed. The 57 sectors of Africa database are aggregated to ten sectors including： grains and crops, livestock and meat products, mining and extraction, processed food, textiles and clothing, light manufacturing, heavy manufacturing, utilities and construction, transport and communication and other services. Moreover, the database regions are aggregated to six including Sudan, the EU, East Asia, MENA, COMESA and the Rest of the world. Results show that Sudanese trade reallocates to Asia in the first phase and to COMESA and MENA regions in the second. Sanctions exact a devastating toll on the Sudanese economy： GDP declines, trade shrinks and welfare deteriorates. The deterioration in the country＇s trade is mainly in the imports side, which justifies an improvement of the country＇s balance of trade, while welfare losses are derived by a deteriorated terms of trade and allocative efficiency.     

Efficiency Gains from Liberalizing Labor Mobility

In this paper, we quantify the effect of a complete liberalization of cross‐border migration on the world GDP and its distribution across regions. We build a general equilibrium model, endogenizing bilateral migration and income disparities between and within countries. Our calibration strategy uses data on effective and potential migration to identify total migration costs and visa costs by education level. Data on potential migration reveal that the number of people in the world who have a desire to migrate is around 400 million. This number is much smaller than that predicted in previous studies, and reflects the existence of high “incompressible” migration costs. In our benchmark framework, liberalizing migration increases the world GDP by 11.5–12.5 percent in the medium term. Our robustness analysis reveals that the gains are always limited, in the range of 7.0 percent (with schooling externalities) to 17.9 percent (if network effects are accounted for).     

Dynamic linkages between tourism transportation expenditures,carbon dioxide emission,energy consumption and growth factors: evidence from the transition economies

Tourism transport profoundly affects economic growth, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. This study is an attempt to examine the impact of international tourism transportation expenditures, energy demand, foreign direct investment inflows, trade openness and urban population on carbon dioxide emission and per capita income for the panel of 11 transition Economies, over the period of 1995–2013. The results show that per capita income escalates the carbon dioxide emission (CO₂), which deteriorates the natural environment. International tourism receipts and international tourism expenditures for travel items are associated with the intensifying CO₂ emission and per capita income in the region. The study confirmed the energy-led emissions, FDI-led emissions, FDI-led growth, income-led emissions, income-led energy demand, trade-led growth and trade-led energy demand. The causality results further substantiate the the tourism-led growth and FDI hypothesis in the region. Finally, the variance decomposition analysis confirmed the following results, that is, (i) per capita income is the contributor that least influences CO₂ emissions, (ii) urban population influences per capita income and (iii) international tourism transportation expenditures will influence CO₂ emissions and per capita income for the next 10-year period.     

Work-Family conflict and turnover intentions: A study comparing China and U.S. hotel employees

Employee turnover continues to be a major problem within the hotel industry. This survey-based study examined the relationship between work-family conflict and turnover intentions among hotel employees in both China and the U.S., with an additional emphasis on female employees. While the results do confirm that work-family conflict is positively related with turnover intentions, work-family conflict is more strongly related to turnover intentions among males than females. The relationship is also stronger in Chinese hotel female employees than their U.S. counterparts. Results demonstrated that neither marital status nor parenthood influences the relationship between work-family conflict and turnover intentions among hotel female employees. Management implications and future research directions are provided.     

善用大数据“资产”

正成功的关键因素是首先要把数据看作是资产——作为建立价值主张和商业模式的基础;其次,努力培养利用大数据潜能的各种能力,或许最重要的是要用创新的方式打破现有的商业模式"创新,究其本质,意味着迈出一大步,做出重大变革……实际上,创新之前最佳的‘做事方式’在创新之后就不再是最佳方式了。"20世纪著名经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼德的话,反映出大数据的潜能,它可以创造性地破坏现有的商业模式。世界数据总量的90%是在过去两年产生的,预计全球商业数据量每1.2年就翻1倍,2020年产生的数据量将是2009年的44倍。     

Cost-efficiency and financial and geographical characteristics of banking sectors in the MENA countries

We utilize the translog stochastic frontier model to estimate the cost-efficiency levels for conventional and Islamic, Cooperation Council (GCC) and non-GCC banks in the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. The estimated cost-efficiency averages around 77% for those MENA banks, but with slight changes in this score for the individual countries. The results also show that the banks in the GCC countries are the most efficient in the region and the efficiency scores for the conventional and Islamic banks are similar. Finally, the recent financial crisis seems to have a slight impact on the observed efficiency scores of those banks.     

Do channels of financial integration matter for FDI’s impact on growth? Empirical evidence using a panel

This paper adds to the debate on the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth which suggest that the link between FDI and economic growth is rather the consequence of both FDI and growth responding endogenously to economic integration. We investigate if the impact of FDI on growth is dependent on the channel of integration used to attract FDI. We use four different indexes of economic integration including Trade Openness, Chinn-Ito, and KOF and our newly constructed index of financial integration. We employ these four indexes to investigate the role played by economic integration in linking FDI and growth. We use a panel consisting of 134 developing countries and data spanning the period 1989-2017 estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) technique. The results show that FDI is an important determinant of growth. The results also suggest that at least some of the integration variables do matter and work as channels to attract FDI leading to growth. However, after stratifying countries by income level, we also find that integration matters mainly for high income countries. Integration variables for other income groups do not show much significance. These are interesting results and may have important policy implications.     

Optimal Task Design: To Integrate or Separate Planning and Implementation?

Integrating planning and implementation, by having one agent perform both tasks, may be effective in encouraging planning activity whose outcome is not observable. Emphasizing its information-generating role, we find that planning activity is best encouraged by partially integrating the tasks. This is because the value of information is nonmonotonic in the degree of task integration. Therefore, the threat of using a second agent to implement the project may relax the moral hazard constraint associated with the planning task. The project size is distorted to increase the value of information, and there can be overinvestment relative to the first best.     

Private monitoring,collusion, and the timing of information

When a principal's monitoring information is private (nonverifiable), the agent should be concerned that the principal could misrepresent the information to reduce the agent's wage or collect a monetary penalty. Restoring credibility may lead to an extreme waste of resources—the so‐called burning of money. A more realistic and efficient outcome is feasible when the private information arrives in time to rescale the agent's effort. Rescaling is more effective than pure monetary penalties because effort has different values to different parties whereas money is equally valuable to all parties. Furthermore, when rescaling is feasible, private monitoring is more efficient than public monitoring subject to collusion because nonmonetary penalties are ineffective to deter collusion.     

RETRACTED: Distributional effects of rising food prices in Pakistan: Evidence from HIES 2001–02 and 2005–06 survey

This article has been retracted: please see Elsevier Policy on Article Withdrawal (http://www.elsevier.com/locate/withdrawalpolicy).This article has been retracted at the request of the Editor and the Publisher.After a thorough investigation, the Publisher has concluded that the Editor was misled into accepting this article based upon the positive advice of at least one faked reviewer report. The report was submitted from a fictitious email account which was provided to the Editor by the corresponding author during the submission of the article. The corresponding author, Dr Zaman, wishes to admit sole responsibility and to state that his co-authors were not aware of his actions.This manipulation of the peer-review process represents a clear violation of the fundamentals of peer review, our publishing policies, and publishing ethics standards. Apologies are offered to the reviewers whose identities were assumed and to the readers of the journal that this deception was not detected during the submission process.