Counting combinatorial choice rules

I count the number of combinatorial choice rules that satisfy certain properties: Kelso–Crawford substitutability, and independence of irrelevant alternatives. The results are important for two-sided matching theory, where agents are modeled by combinatorial choice rules with these properties. The rules are a small, and asymptotically vanishing, fraction of all choice rules. But they are still exponentially more than the preference relations over individual agents—which has positive implications for the Gale–Shapley algorithm of matching theory.     

Public expenditure, international specialisation and agglomeration

It is widely recognised that public-sector purchasers tend to favour domestic suppliers. We study the consequences of such home-biased public procurement on international specialisation. Using a general-equilibrium model with a monopolistically competitive sector, we find that a country will specialise in that sector if it has relatively large home-biased procurement (the “pull” effect). Furthermore, home-biased procurement can counter agglomeration forces in that sector and thereby attenuate the overall degree of international specialisation (the “spread” effect). Our empirical analysis, conducted on input-output data for the European Union, yields supporting evidence for the pull effect and some support for the spread effect.     

Explaining the early years of the euro exchange rate: An episode of learning about a new central bank

Many observers were surprised by the depreciation of the euro after its launch in 1999. Handicapped by a short sample, explanations tended to appeal to anecdotes and lessons learned from the experiences of other currencies. Now sample sizes are just becoming large enough to permit reasonable empirical analyses. The model of this paper provides empirical support for the euro exchange rate to be affected by learning. By focusing on euro-area inflation as the key fundamental, the model is structured toward the dynamics of learning about ECB policy with regard to inflation. While a stated target inflation rate of 2 percent existed, it may be that market participants had to be convinced that the ECB would, indeed, generate low and stable inflation. With a prior distribution drawn from the pre-euro EMS experience and updating based upon the realized experience each month following the introduction of the euro, the evidence suggests that it was not until December of 1999 that the market assessed a greater than 50 percent probability that the inflation process had changed to a new regime. From this point on, trend depreciation of the euro ends and further increases in the probability of the new inflation process are associated with euro appreciation versus the US dollar, the British pound and the Japanese yen.     

GROWTH AND INCOME POVERTY IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EVIDENCE FROM HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS

This paper provides evidence on growth and income poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Results are obtained by processing microdata from household surveys of 18 LAC countries covering the 1990s and early 2000s. Over this period the LAC economies experienced heterogeneous patterns of growth and poverty changes. Most countries in the region had a rather meager performance in terms of poverty reduction. Episodes of positive, significant and unambiguously pro-poor income growth have been rare in Latin America.     

Outward FDI and Local Employment Growth in Italy

Using several data sources, we assess the impact of Italy’s outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on local employment growth between 1996 and 2001 for 12 manufacturing industries and 103 administrative provinces. Our main result is that, controlling for the local industrial structure and area fixed effects, FDI is associated with faster local employment growth, relatively to the national industry average. We also find that employment in small plants is not negatively influenced by higher levels of FDI. Our findings do not support therefore the idea that FDI is detrimental to local employment growth in the home country. JEL no.  C21, F21, F23     

The relationship between firm growth and labor demand

Gibrat's Law is tested on a sample of Italian firms. The results are similar to those recently obtained on various sets of U.S. data and confirm that departures from Gibrat's Law are modest, also when firms' age is accounted for.     

Can PIGLOG preferences identify equivalence scales?

This paper clarifies the conditions under which PIGLOG and extended PIGLOG preferences can identify household equivalence scales. The results are of interest to practitioners who have to elect preferences suitable for welfare analysis. It also shows that independent of the base utility equivalence scales are the same whether the budget shares of the demand systems are linear or quadratic in log income. (JEL: D11, D13) The author is grateful to an anonymous referee for several helpful suggestions.     

Services trade and credit frictions: Evidence with matched bank–firm data

The effects of credit supply shocks on the exports of services are not clear a priori. On the one hand, services need lower initial investment in physical capital than manufacturing. On the other hand, competitiveness for exporting services requires investments in intangible capital and in product customisation that may be subject to credit frictions. Using Italian matched bank–firm data and focusing on the sovereign debt crisis, we find an elasticity of services exports to credit supply, between 0.3 and 0.4. The effects of credit shocks are especially relevant for firms exporting complex services to countries with weaker institutions and for services that are not the main product of the firms. Overall, our results suggest that credit supply plays a relevant role for exporting services during crises.