On the Edge of Buying: A Targeting Approach for Indecisive Buyers Based on Willingness-to-Pay Ranges

Targeting the “right” consumers is a core part of marketing. Whereas existing techniques to identify these consumers use demographic or psychographic variables or behaviors such as response probabilities, a proposed new targeting approach builds on consumers’ incremental responses to identify them by their willingness-to-pay (WTP) ranges. These WTP ranges reveal a consumer as a definite buyer, a definite non-buyer, or an indecisive buyer. The proposed theoretical framework indicates that indecisive buyers offer the highest incremental responses to targeted marketing mix activities and thus should be the most preferred targeting group. A sequence of three laboratory experimental studies validates the proposed approach for targeted price discounts and non-price tactics. In addition, a large-scale field experiment involving a consumer engagement campaign that includes observed purchase behavior demonstrates the high external validity and applicability of this approach.     

A temporal analysis of how entrepreneurial goal intentions,positive fantasies,and action planning affect starting a new venture and when the effects wear off

The road from intentions to actions and new venture creation is long. So far, the literature has provided insights into action-regulatory factors that contribute to new venture creation. However, the literature has neglected to take into account the temporal dynamics underlying these relationships. We contribute to action-regulation theories in entrepreneurship by theorizing about and investigating how the effects of action-regulatory factors hold over time. We hypothesize that the action-regulatory factors of entrepreneurial goal intentions, positive fantasies, and action planning have combined effects on new venture creation. Furthermore, we hypothesize that these effects become weaker over time. To test our hypotheses, we studied 96 Ugandan entrepreneurs over 30 months. Our results supported our hypotheses. Action planning moderated the effects of entrepreneurial goal intentions and positive fantasies on new venture creation. Furthermore, the effects were significant in the beginning and wore off over time. Our study shows that including a time frame in theoretical models is important to derive valid conclusions from empirical results and to develop more precise theories.     

On the evasion of employment protection legislation

This paper analyzes how the option to evade employment protection legislation impacts on unemployment. Using a stylized model, it is established that the level of unemployment is non-monotonous in the degree of strictness with which employment protection legislation is enforced. Considering just cause and social criteria requirements for three regulatory regimes representative of a large number of industrialized countries, we find that different regimes generate different dismissal decisions only if the regimes are strictly enforced. In contrast, unemployment rates may differ across regimes even in the case of weak enforcement. Additionally, we find that it may be worse for the economy to weakly enforce harmful regulations than to strictly enforce them.     

Why don’t they answer? Unit non-response in the IAB establishment panel

The paper proposed focuses on the unit-nonresponse in the IAB (Institute for Employment Research) Establishment Panel, a comprehensive data set describing the employer side of the labour market in Germany. Every year since 1993 (1996) the IAB Establishment Panel has surveyed the same establishments from all branches and different size categories in western (eastern) Germany. Although great efforts are taken to convince the owner/manager to take part in the survey there are always firms that do not answer the questionnaire. In this paper the authors try to find out why some establishments are not willing or able to respond to the questionnaire. If the respondent has the authority to provide relevant information, is able to give reliable answers to the questions with a justifiable amount of effort and is interested in the survey in business terms, participation is less frequently refused. The results also confirm the central significance of the interaction between the respondent and the interviewer. If one of the two individuals changes, the probability of further participation falls clearly.     

SPAC merger announcement returns and subsequent performance

Special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) are created to raise capital and then find non-listed operating companies with which to merge. While most of the extant research has focused on SPAC initial public offerings, we study what happens when SPACs announce business combinations. Our analysis of 236 ‘deSPACs’ completed between January 2012 and June 2021 in the United States documents an average short-term announcement return of +7.4% and a 1-year abnormal return of −14.1% (−18.0% over 2 years) for public investors beginning from the merger announcement. Short-term returns decrease with longer times from initial public offering until announcement.     

Local volatility under rough volatility

Several asymptotic results for the implied volatility generated by a rough volatility model have been obtained in recent years (notably in the small-maturity regime), providing a better understanding of the shapes of the volatility surface induced by rough volatility models, supporting their calibration power to SP500 option data. Rough volatility models also generate a local volatility surface, via the so-called Markovian projection of the stochastic volatility. We complement the existing results on implied volatility by studying the asymptotic behavior of the local volatility surface generated by a class of rough stochastic volatility models, encompassing the rough Bergomi model. Notably, we observe that the celebrated “1/2 skew rule” linking the short-term at-the-money skew of the implied volatility to the short-term at-the-money skew of the local volatility, a consequence of the celebrated “harmonic mean formula” of [Berestycki et al. (2002). Quantitative Finance, 2, 61–69], is replaced by a new rule: the ratio of the at-the-money implied and local volatility skews tends to the constant $1/(H+3/2)$ (as opposed to the constant 1/2), where H is the regularity index of the underlying instantaneous volatility process.     

General Bayesian time-varying parameter vector autoregressions for modeling government bond yields

US yield curve dynamics are subject to time-variation, but there is ambiguity about its precise form. This paper develops a vector autoregressive (VAR) model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility, which treats the nature of parameter dynamics as unknown. Coefficients can evolve according to a random walk, a Markov switching process, observed predictors, or depend on a mixture of these. To decide which form is supported by the data and to carry out model selection, we adopt Bayesian shrinkage priors. Our framework is applied to model the US yield curve. We show that the model forecasts well, and focus on selected in-sample features to analyze determinants of structural breaks in US yield curve dynamics.     

TAIL FORECASTING WITH MULTIVARIATE BAYESIAN ADDITIVE REGRESSION TREES

We develop multivariate time-series models using Bayesian additive regression trees that posit nonlinearities among macroeconomic variables, their lags, and possibly their lagged errors. The error variances can be stable, feature stochastic volatility, or follow a nonparametric specification. We evaluate density and tail forecast performance for a set of U.S. macroeconomic and financial indicators. Our results suggest that the proposed models improve forecast accuracy both overall and in the tails. Another finding is that when allowing for nonlinearities in the conditional mean, heteroskedasticity becomes less important. A scenario analysis reveals nonlinear relations between predictive distributions and financial conditions.     

High reliability Human Resource Management (HRM): A system for high risk workplaces

High Performance Work Systems (HPWS) research is based on the search for the most suitable bundle of complementary practices appropriate for the organisation and its operating environment. We examine the contents of a HPWS in organisations seeking impeccable safety and reliability as their foremost ‘performance’ outcome. We propose a ‘High Reliability HRM’ framework, and examine the degree of implementation in a three case study of Australian state emergency services organisations. The findings highlight HRM practices inconsistent with the framework, and illustrated by rich interview accounts, we detail associated negative implications for employee behaviour and attitudes. We contribute to HPWS research by empirically examining how reliability-seeking organisations conceptualise and implement HRM systems. This study emphasises how inconsistency in HRM practice bundles can pose a threat to reliable service provision, a critical finding for emergency services and reliability-seeking organisations more broadly.