WORLD OUTLOOK

The slowdown in the world economy, which followed last year's oil price collapse and which awakened fears that the world was on the threshold of a new recession, is coming to an end. Output growth in the first half of the year was stronger than we had previously expected and a gentle acceleration is forecast over the next eighteen months. In contrast to this improvement on output, there has been little or no progress on the major problems of the world economy, including the USA's twin structural deficits, budget and trade, and the international debt crisis. Moreover, with the US facing elections in just over a year's time, no economic initiative is likely until 1989. Hence the prevailing view that the US and world economies will "muddle through" for another year. But in 1989 a new US administration is likely to face up to the trade and budget imbalances and many US forecasters believe that the required fiscal tightening will lead to recession. As we explain below, this is not our view and the forecast embodies steady 3 per cent growth in the world economy over the medium term. Inflation has now passed the low point brought about by the oil price collapse. On our forecast of output, inflation is expected to remain close to its present underlying rate of 4 per cent.     

Teamwork,Skill Development and Employee Welfare

There has been a sharp divergence in the literature about the benefits of teamwork. Some have claimed that it is solely in the interests of management, others that it is beneficial for employees and yet others that it makes little difference to either productivity or well‐being. This article draws upon the British Skills Survey Series. It shows that while teamwork did expand between the early 1990s and 2006, this was due primarily to the growth of the type of teamwork that allowed employees little in the way of decision‐making power. Indeed, there was a decrease in the prevalence of self‐directive teamwork. At the same time, our evidence shows that the benefits of teamwork, in terms of both enhancing work motivation and employee welfare, are confined to self‐directive teams, while non‐self‐directive teams suppress the use of personal initiative and discretion at work.     

Word-of-mouth marketing influence on offline and online communications: Evidence from case study research

This case study reports results from three research studies conducted over 12 weeks as part of a product seeding campaign. Partnering with a word-of-mouth marketing (WOMM) agency for this research, studies 1 and 2 report agency-conducted surveys of campaign participants' online and offline word-of-mouth (WOM) behaviors. Study 3 deployed an innovative web-based methodology to map and visualize WOM communication patterns, to reveal how campaign-related conversations spread within and across offline friendship networks and the role played by tie strength in that process. We find that agency reports of WOMM campaign results overstate reach and understate frequency. Our results have implications for the measurement of reach and frequency of WOMM campaigns.     

What do we know about audit quality?

This paper reviews empirical research over the past 25 years, mainly from the United States, in order to assess what we currently know about audit quality with respect to publicly listed companies. The evidence indicates that outright audit failure rates are infrequent, far less than 1% annually, and audit fees are quite small, less than 0.1% of aggregate client sales. This suggests there may be an acceptable level of audit quality at a relatively low cost. There is also evidence of voluntary differential audit quality (above the legal minimum) along a number of dimensions such as firm size, industry specialization, office characteristics, and cross-country differences in legal systems and auditor liability exposure. The evidence is very positive although there is some indication that audit quality may have declined in the 1990s, in which case there could be merit in recent reforms such as the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 in the US. However, we do not know from research the optimal level of audit quality and therefore whether we currently have ‘too little’ or ‘too much’ auditing? Despite this lacuna we are entering an era of more mandated auditing in response to high-profile corporate governance failures including the Enron–Andersen affair. Finally, while recent reforms have scaled back the scope of non-audit services due to independence concerns, a case can be made that audit quality will always be somewhat suspect if other services are provided that are perceived to potentially compromise the auditor's objectivity and skepticism. For this reason public confidence in audit quality may be increased by proscribing all non-audit services for audit clients. Recommendations are also proposed with respect to legal liability reform and changes in partner compensation arrangements.     

Estimating global bank network connectedness

We use LASSO methods to shrink, select, and estimate the high‐dimensional network linking the publicly traded subset of the world's top 150 banks, 2003–2014. We characterize static network connectedness using full‐sample estimation and dynamic network connectedness using rolling‐window estimation. Statically, we find that global bank equity connectedness has a strong geographic component, whereas country sovereign bond connectedness does not. Dynamically, we find that equity connectedness increases during crises, with clear peaks during the Great Financial Crisis and each wave of the subsequent European Debt Crisis, and with movements coming mostly from changes in cross‐country as opposed to within‐country bank linkages.     

Random Effects Misspecification Can Have Severe Consequences for Random Effects Inference in Linear Mixed Models

There has been considerable and controversial research over the past two decades into how successfully random effects misspecification in mixed models (i.e. assuming normality for the random effects when the true distribution is non‐normal) can be diagnosed and what its impacts are on estimation and inference. However, much of this research has focused on fixed effects inference in generalised linear mixed models. In this article, motivated by the increasing number of applications of mixed models where interest is on the variance components, we study the effects of random effects misspecification on random effects inference in linear mixed models, for which there is considerably less literature. Our findings are surprising and contrary to general belief: for point estimation, maximum likelihood estimation of the variance components under misspecification is consistent, although in finite samples, both the bias and mean squared error can be substantial. For inference, we show through theory and simulation that under misspecification, standard likelihood ratio tests of truly non‐zero variance components can suffer from severely inflated type I errors, and confidence intervals for the variance components can exhibit considerable under coverage. Furthermore, neither of these problems vanish asymptotically with increasing the number of clusters or cluster size. These results have major implications for random effects inference, especially if the true random effects distribution is heavier tailed than the normal. Fortunately, simple graphical and goodness‐of‐fit measures of the random effects predictions appear to have reasonable power at detecting misspecification. We apply linear mixed models to a survey of more than 4 000 high school students within 100 schools and analyse how mathematics achievement scores vary with student attributes and across different schools. The application demonstrates the sensitivity of mixed model inference to the true but unknown random effects distribution.     

Unpredictable times: the extent,characteristics and correlates of insecure hours of work in Britain

This article presents new British evidence that suggests that cutting working hours at short notice is twice as prevalent as zero-hours contracts and triple the number of employees are very anxious about unexpected changes to their hours of work. The pay of these employees tends to be lower, work intensity higher, line management support weaker and the threat of dismissal and job loss greater. In addition, the well-being of these employees is lower and they are less committed to the organisations that employ them. However, the prevalence of insecure working hours is reduced by workplace level employee involvement exercised individually or through collective representation.