Modelling the emergence of the interbank networks

Interbank contagion has become a buzzword in the aftermath of the financial crisis that led to a series of shocks to the interbank market and to periods of pronounced market disruptions. However, little is known about how interbank networks are formed and about their sensitivity to changes in key bank parameters (for example, induced by common exogenous shocks or by regulatory initiatives). This paper aims to shed light on these issues by modelling endogenously the formation of interbank networks, which in turn allows for checking the sensitivity of interbank network structures and hence, their underlying contagion risk to changes in market-driven parameters as well as to changes in regulatory measures such as large exposures limits. The sequential network formation mechanism presented in the paper is based on a portfolio optimization model, whereby banks allocate their interbank exposures while balancing the return and risk of counterparty default risk and the placements are accepted taking into account funding diversification benefits. The model offers some interesting insights into how key parameters may affect interbank network structures and can be a valuable tool for analysing the impact of various regulatory policy measures relating to banks’ incentives to operate in the interbank market.     

A new look at variance estimation based on low,high and closing prices taking into account the drift

The joint distribution of low, high and closing prices of the arithmetic Brownian motion is used to evaluate the properties of the most popular estimators of the variance constructed on the basis of high, low and closing prices. The expected values and mean square errors of the Parkinson, Garman–Klass and Rogers–Satchell estimators for the process with a zero drift and a non‐zero drift are derived. Moreover, new volatility estimators, more efficient in the majority of financial applications than the Rogers–Satchell estimator, are proposed. The considered estimators are applied to the estimation of the volatility of the Polish stock index WIG20.     

Bootstrapping Parametric Models of Mortality

We consider a general problem of modeling a mortality law of a population of failing units with some parametric function. In this setting we define a mortality table of crude rates as a statistical estimator with multinomial distribution and show its consistency as well as asymptotic normality. We further derive the statistical properties of parameter estimators in a parametric mortality model based on a weighted square loss function. We use the obtained results to study consistency and appropriateness of the parametric bootstrap method in our setting. We derive the conditions on the assumed parametric mortality law and the loss function, under which the bootstrap is consistent for estimating the model parameters, their standard errors and corresponding confidence intervals. We apply our results to a model of Aggregate US Mortality Table based on a so called mixture of extreme value distributions suggested by Carriere ().     

Determinants of capital flows to emerging and advanced economies between 1990 and 2011

The previous and latest crises confirmed that stability of external financing of the economy is determined not only by the volume of capital inflow but also by its structure. It is established that a bias in gross external liabilities towards debt, especially short-term, may rise vulnerability to financial crises. Greater share of equity capital, mainly direct investment is not found to bear such financial risk. The results of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) show that influence of variables inherent in macroeconomic and portfolio approaches varies depending on the type of capital inflow and the group of countries. We also find some arguments that equity investment is a more desirable form of foreign capital because debt inflows are more responsive to global factors and therefore more volatile. As a word of caution, we highlight the need for diversification and careful monitoring of external financing sources and forms.     

Electric and hybrid car use in a free-floating carsharing system

A free-floating carsharing system is a flexible way to provide cars to members in a limited area. This paper discusses the user behavior and choice between electric and hybrid cars in a free-floating system. We use Auto-mobile's transactional and Global Positioning System (GPS) datasets to analyze car use. We develop a binomial logit model to find the probability of choosing an electric car when there is a choice. The analysis reveals that travel distance has a major influence on this probability: electric vehicles are less popular for distances of more than 24 km. Cold temperatures and being a female also decrease the probability, while higher energy level increases odds. The spatial analysis shows a difference in behavior between both car technologies. Trips made by electric cars are less dispersed spatially than those made by hybrid cars.     

Personality,Risk Perception,Benefit Sought and Terrorism Effect

Risk perception can affect travel decision‐making. It is subjective and variable among different people. The purposes of this study are threefold: it examines the relationship between personality and risk perception, risk perception and benefit sought and finally tests to see whether willingness to travel alters after a terrorist attack and how this differs across different personalities. To do this, a random sample of 475 British households was selected to facilitate the analysis. The findings show that there are differences in terms of people's personality and risk perception. Benefit sought and risk perceptions are partially related, but not in the context of terrorism attacks in seaside resorts, where terrorism creates an atmosphere of uncertainty that leave the door open for fear, and the lack of ability to control the risk stops even the most confident traveller. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Foreign acquisition and post-privatization exit of state-owned firms

This paper analyzes the impact of foreign and domestic ownership on the exit rates of privatized state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in transitional countries. The exit of privatized SOEs can have a profound impact on employment and on the development of local economies of transitional countries. An oligopoly model that incorporates country-level trade costs and individual SOE's productivity is developed to assess the exit of SOEs under either foreign or domestic ownership. The model shows that market competition between firms can lead to liquidation of the SOE by a domestic firm when trade costs increase. When the productivity of SOE is high, neither foreign nor domestic firm will liquidate. The predictions of the model are tested using firm-level privatization data from Central and Eastern Europe. By controlling for productivity, trade costs, and other attributes of SOEs after privatization, it is found that foreign ownership significantly reduces the probability of SOE's exit as compared to domestic ownership. Furthermore, there is evidence that as trade costs increase, the exit probability of domestically owned SOEs increases and the exit probability of foreign-owned SOEs declines.     

Do long-term interest rates drive GDP and inflation in small open economies? Evidence from Poland

This article investigates the impact of long-term interest rates on macroeconomic variables in a small open economy. It shows that the time-varying term premium stabilizes GDP without affecting significantly inflation volatility in Poland – a typical open economy with flexible exchange rate. This conclusion is drawn from an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which segmented asset markets and imperfect asset substitutability give rise to the time-varying term premium in the long-term interest rate. Furthermore, the impulse response analysis of the model reveals that the term premium stabilizes GDP when the small economy is hit by shocks that are absent in closed economy models (country risk premium and export preference) which points to the different impact of the term premium on relatively close (large) and open (small) economies.     

Fiscal tensions and risk premium

Empirica - The main goal of the paper is to analyse one-dimensional, isolated impact of particular variables which are used in the literature as explanatory variables for risk premium following...     

How much of the world economy is state-owned? Analysis based on the 2005–20 Fortune Global 500 lists

This paper analyzes the share of state-owned enterprises on the Fortune Global 500 lists from 2005 to 2020. The purpose is to answer two research questions—what is the share of SOEs among the world's largest companies, and is this share increasing over the years? Regarding studies of large sets of companies, the novelty of this article is the method in which SOEs were identified—based on the criterion of actual corporate control of the state and not the threshold of state ownership. The results show that the share of SOEs in the group of the world's largest companies is higher than indicated in previous similar studies, and this value has increased significantly over the last 15 years. In 2005, there were 64 SOEs on the list; in 2020, there were 141 (with the highest number—142—in 2015). In this period, the share of SOEs in revenues doubled (to almost 30%), in assets more than tripled and the total number of employees from SOEs from the list more than doubled. However, these increases were almost solely due to the growth of the Chinese economy, which resulted in more Chinese SOEs being included on the list.