Prospect theory in the wild: how good is the nonexperimental evidence for prospect theory?

ABSTRACT

Prospect theory is widely thought to be one of the best-confirmed accounts of human decision-making under risk. There are numerous claims in the literature that various kinds of nonexperimental, observational evidence provide strong support for prospect theory. We investigate the veracity of these claims using a set of philosophy of science morals and a careful delineation of models of choice under risk, focussing on the extant versions of prospect theory and their various components. We challenge the claim that prospect theory is well supported because it explains the equity premium puzzle. In addition, we analyse a major international survey thought to support prospect theory and argue that the support is questionable, both for statistical reasons and because the evidence itself is mixed. Our analyses highlight some important ideas in the philosophy of science and caution against strong claims about support for prospect theory that rely on nonexperimental, observational evidence.     

The impact of tax on foreign direct investment: Empirical evidence and the implications for tax integration schemes

We estimate the impact of taxation on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, using data on flows between seven countries for 1984 through 1989, and a sophisticated measure of the cost of capital. We find that the choice between domestic investment and total outward FDI is not significantly affected by taxation but that taxation does affect the location of outward FDI. These results are used to examine the impact of tax integration systems. Giving a tax credit to foreign shareholders may induce a large increase in inward FDI from exemption countries but not from partial-credit countries. For the United States, the total effect would be small.     

Book Reviews

Ruth McVey (ed.), Southeast Asian Capitalists, Ithaca: Southeast Asia Program, Cornell University, 1992, pp. 218.

Joan Hardjono (ed.), Indonesia: Resources, Ecology and Environment, Singapore: Oxford University Press, 1991, pp. xvi + 262. Cloth: A$50; £25.

Chris Dixon, South East Asia in the World-Economy: A Regional Geography, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991, pp. xv + 281. Paper: A$29.95; Cloth: npg.

Kym Anderson (ed.), New Silk Roads: East Asia and World Textile Markets, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, for the Trade and Development Series, National Centre for Development Studies, Australian National University, 1992, pp. xxvi + 24. A559.50.

K. S. Sandhu et al. (comps), The ASEAN Reader, Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1992, pp. xxvi + 582.

Kim Seung Jin and Suh Jang-Won (eds), Cooperation in Small and Medium-Scale Industries in ASEAN, Kuala Lumpur: Asian and Pacific Development Centre, 1992, pp. xiv + 389.     

Delphi: A brief look backward and forward

In response to a request by the guest editors, we have set down our thoughts regarding the evolution of Delphi, beginning with our immersion in the subject in the late 1960s and concluding with some rumination about its future. Our focus is on the changing roles of Delphi. Most importantly, with the profound impact of the internet on organizational and community planning systems, it will foster a new age of participation through communication, coordination, and collaboration.