Text-analytic measurement of effectuation and causation orientations among small and global business managers

We demonstrate how one can measure overall quality in texts gathered from interviews by means of PERTEX text analytic method. We compare text analytic measures and content for locally active Scandinavian small business managers and globally operating Indian IT managers when recapitulating the reasons behind company growth. Using Ward’s clustering method (J Am Stat Assoc 58:236–244, 1963) on a binary matrix for connections between textual components, we suggest using the ESS value from clustering to calculate AFFI as an overall measure of quality. By further splitting the AFFI into three sub-components we are also able to display the degree of fragmentation, focus and integration in the text. We show how AFFI measures differ between managers with a causation or effectuation orientation irrespective of their role as small business manager or as an established global manager. Hence, we posit that effectuation and causation orientations may be generic characteristic of managers in general.     

The information content of money in forecasting euro area inflation

This article contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analysing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using Bayesian and other estimation techniques. We find that money contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models and Vector Autoregressions (VARs) incorporating money perform better than their cashless counterparts. But there are also indications that the contribution of money has its limits. The marginal contribution of money to forecasting accuracy is often small, money adds little to dynamic factor models, and it worsens forecasting accuracy of partial equilibrium models. Finally, nonmonetary models dominate monetary models in an all-out horserace.     

Intentions to use mobile services: Antecedents and cross-service comparisons

This article develops and tests a model to explain consumers’ intention to use mobile services. Through triangulating theories from the diverse fields of information systems research, uses and gratification research, and domestication research, the authors put forth an integrated model that explains intention to use mobile services. The model proposes four overall influences on usage intention: motivational influences, attitudinal influences, normative pressure, and perceived control. The authors study the type of interactivity and process characteristics associated with the service that moderate the effects on the relationship between the proposed antecedents and usage intention. The results from empirical studies of four mobile services show strong support for the effects of motivational influences, attitudinal influences, normative pressure, and perceived control on consumers’ intentions to use mobile services. Some of the effects are moderated by process characteristics (goal-directed vs. experiential services) that are associated with the service.     

Is Corporate Governance in China Related to Performance Persistence?

This paper examines the relationship between performance persistence and corporate governance (as proxied for by board characteristics and shareholder structure). We document systematic differences in performance persistence across listed companies in China during 2001–2011, and empirically demonstrate that firms with better corporate governance show higher performance persistence. The results are robust over both the short and long terms. We also find that performance persistence is an important factor in refinancing, and it can lower companies’ costs of borrowing. Overall, our findings offer important implications for business ethics, as we demonstrate how corporate governance can lower companies’ costs of debt.     

Does financial integration make banks more vulnerable? Regulation,foreign owned banks,and the lender-of-last resort

We describe a simple model in which banks’ prudential efforts and public regulation can reduce the probability of bankruptcy. Focusing on the European example, we contrast the national case with an integrated banking market and find that banks will exert, and public regulators will demand, greater prudential effort to monitor their bank’s activities. Thus, financial integration may increase voluntary prudential behavior by banks, avoid a regulatory “race to the bottom,” and improve the soundness of the financial system. Along similar lines, we show that the absence of a dedicated lender of last resort within the euro area can reduce the probability of financial crisis. Despite these findings, the overall level of regulatory activity may remain suboptimal from a European perspective. We also discuss incentives for European banks to organize their foreign holdings in branches or subsidiaries.

Customer reactions to acquirer-dominant mergers and acquisitions

This article investigates consumer reactions to acquirer-dominant mergers and acquisitions (M&As) from the perspective of the (smaller) target brand and explores how marketing actions can mitigate negative effects. The findings from five studies show that consumers tend to react negatively to M&As by devaluing the acquirer brand, increasing their intention to switch, and adjusting their attitudes toward the target brand upward. We suggest that psychological reactance is a mediator of the negative effects of merger information on customers' attitudes and switching intentions. We also demonstrate that brand managers can attenuate reactance by involving consumers in merger decisions, thus providing important managerial implications for M&A decisions and processes.     

Geography, skills or both: What explains Fed watchers’ forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?

The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the ability of Fed watchers to forecast US monetary policy decisions. Based on a novel database for 268 individual professional forecasters since 1999, the average absolute forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5–10 basis points between the best and worst-performers across the sample. This heterogeneity is found to be related to both the skills of analysts – such as their educational and employment backgrounds – and to geography. In particular, forecasters located in regions which experience more idiosyncratic economic conditions perform worse in anticipating monetary policy. This evidence is indicative that limited attention and heterogeneous priors are present even for anticipating important events such as monetary policy decisions.