EXCHANGE RATE FUNDAMENTALS,FORECASTING, AND SPECULATION: BAYESIAN MODELS IN BLACK MARKETS

Although speculative activity is central to black markets for currency, the out‐of‐sample performance of structural models in those settings is unknown. We substantially update the literature on empirical determinants of black market rates and evaluate the out‐of‐sample performance of linear models and non‐parametric Bayesian treed Gaussian process (BTGP) models against the random walk benchmark. Fundamentals‐based models outperform the benchmark in out‐of‐sample prediction accuracy and trading rule profitability measures given future values of fundamentals. In simulated real‐time trading exercises, however, the BTGP achieves superior realized profitability, accuracy and market timing, while linear models do no better than a random walk. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring the landscape of wind farm developments; local area characteristics and planning process outcomes in rural England

Despite broad public support for wind energy in principle, windfarm developments are often met with local opposition. There is theoretical, case-based and anecdotal evidence to suggest that ‘the local’ is relevant for planning process outcomes, but the nature and extent of this relevance is not so clear. We embark on an initial exploration of local factors that, on aggregate, may be of relevance to planning outcomes of proposed windfarms in rural England. Applying a broad scanning approach we use an existing small area GIS dataset of 117 variables related to education, health, demography, employment and housing. We identify a number of strong associations, and discuss to what extent these make sense in the light of existing literature on environmental equity and social capital, or throw up questions for further study. Notwithstanding the methodological caveats of this explorative study, and the scope for more in-depth analysis, our findings suggests that beyond the myriad of individual planning cases, the emerging landscape of wind energy development in England is markedly uneven, and sometimes inequitable. Evidence of the latter emerges notably through the strong significance of local democratic deficit (i.e. low voter turn-out) as a predictor of a ‘positive’ planning outcome for windfarms and the further strengthening of predictive associations at the appeal stage.     

Adäquate Wundauflagen

Wundumgebung und Wundauflagen - Die wundumgebende Haut, sofern sie intakt ist, hat eigentlich keinen direkten Einfluss auf die Wundheilung, da aber die Wundauflagen oder der Sekund?rverband auf der wundumgebenden Haut fixiert wird, ist die Beurteilung und Schutz dieser Hautareale für die Wundheilung von Bedeutung.     

On nonparametric estimation of the Schumpeterian link between innovation and firm size: Evidence from Belgium,France, and Germany

This paper analyses the Schumpeterian link between innovative activity and firm size by means of the nonparametric Nadaraya-Watson estimator and of the partially linear approach by Speckman. Four data sets referring to the manufacturing industries of three European countries are available for the analysis. We demonstrate how nonparametric methods can produce more reliable conclusions than conventional methods. For this purpose, the roles of bandwidth choice, wild bootstrap, density estimation and trimming are studied. For the German data set of 1984 and for the French data set we find that small firms and large firms are more innovative than firms of intermediate size while the relation is rather hump-shaped for Germany 1989 and decreasing for Belgium. Including an additional parametric component into the estimations based on the French data contributes considerably to the explanation of innovative activity without affecting the U-shaped link between innovation and firm size.     

Agrarpolitik in der EG

Zusammenfassung In der Wirkungsanalyse der EG-Agrarpolitik wird zwar auf eine Reihe von M?ngeln und Fehlentwicklungen hingewiesen, im ganzen aber die gemeinsame Agrarpolitik verh?ltnism?\ig günstig beurteilt. M?ngel der gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik werden weniger der Natur des Systems als dessen Handhabung zugeschrieben. Das Urteil über die EG-Agrarpolitik w?re vermutlich negativer ausgefallen, h?tte der Analyse ein st?rker am Freihandelsideal orientiertes Referenzsystem zugrunde gelegen. Als Ergebnis der Diskussion alternativer agrarpolitischer Systeme wird ein Mischsystem aus preispolitischen Ma\nahmen und sogenannten produktionsneutralen Beihilfen, die ihrem Wesen nach aber Faktorsubventionen darstellen, vorgeschlagen. Ein System personengebundener Transfers, das tats?chlich produktionsneutral w?re, wird hingegen abgelehnt. Auch hier w?re man vermutlich zu etwas anderen Ergebnissen gekommen, h?tte man der Analyse den Freihandelszustand als das relevante Referenzsystem zugrunde gelegt. Der Beitrag über Agrarpolitik und W?hrungsentwicklung enth?lt im wesentlichen überlegungen, die im Kern darauf hinauslaufen, reale Auswirkungen einer Wechselkurs?nderung von der Landwirtschaft fernzuhalten. Gesamtwirtschaftliche Argumente für die Berechtigung eines dauerhaften Grenzausgleichs enth?lt dieser Beitrag nicht.      

Rezensionen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Das Stoma richtig versorgen

Stomaformen und Versorgungssysteme — In Deutschland leben circa 100.000 Menschen mit einem Stoma. Entscheidend für die Lebensqualit?t dieser Patienten ist eine optimale Versorgung des künstlichen Darmausgangs – auch durch die professionelle Pflege.     

Total factor productivity, the east Asian miracle, and the world production frontier

Total Factor Productivity, the East Asian Miracle, and the World Production Frontier. — The post WWII growth of the East Asian Tiger states has stimulated the discussion about its determinants. Young and Krugman hold that high capital accumulation rather than gains in efficiency or technological progress has spurred growth. Nelson and Pack, however, have recently criticized the methods of measuring technological progress. Applying the nonparametric approach to frontier production function determination and the Malmquist index of total factor productivity change, the authors take up this criticism. They calculate productivity indicators for a sample of 18 American, Asian, and European countries. For the Tiger states, their results confirm that capital accumulation was the main source of growth in 1960-1973, whereas they find evidence for an increasing importance of efficiency improvements for the growth in 1973-1990.