近期国际石油价格回顾与预测

回顾 1.原油 9月份国际原油价格稳步上扬.尽管欧佩克部长级会议同意把原油日产量提高50万桶,但是对市场供需影响不大.     

完善我国推定课税制度的对策思考——《中国推定税制度检讨》系列之三

完善推定课税制度最为根本的一点就是必须坚持税收法定主义原则,只有这样,才可以较好地从法律的高度上界定推定课税中纳税人的权利,才可以较为完善地界定推定课税的适用条件、方法和程度.除此之外,在税收立法与执法中还必须遵循信赖合作保护原则.     

Overconfidence and Resistance to Abandoning Unprofitable Capital Budgeting Projects: The Effects of Autonomy,Internal Audit,and Accountability

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of managers' autonomy in choosing a capital budgeting project has on their confidence in managing the project. Furthermore, this study examines the role that internal audit reports and accountability play in mitigating the impact of autonomy on managers' resistance to abandoning unprofitable capital budgeting projects. Building on motivated reasoning theory, we hypothesize and find that managers who are given autonomy to choose their own projects are more confident that their projects will be successful than managers who are assigned the projects by their superiors. This study also shows that internal audit reports and accountability are effective mechanisms for reducing the influence of prior decisions on managers' resistance to abandoning unprofitable projects.     

Environmental regulation,total factor productivity,and enterprise duration: Evidence from China

Environmental regulation has been confirmed to have an important impact on enterprise productivity, which is regarded as a crucial factor of enterprise duration. However, existing studies have paid little attention to how environmental regulation affects enterprise duration. Using firm‐level data from the Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database (2003–2007) and the stochastic frontier analysis method, we estimate enterprise total factor productivity (TFP) and its four decomposed components (scale efficiency change, technological change, factor allocation efficiency change, and technical efficiency change). Meanwhile, we adopt a comprehensive index to measure the environmental regulation intensity. Furthermore, we use the linear probability model and the proportional hazards model to investigate the effect of environmental regulation on enterprise duration through the mediating role of enterprise TFP. The results show that although environmental regulation per se negatively impacts on enterprise duration, environmental regulation can present a synthetic positive effect on enterprise duration due to its positive effect on enterprise TFP. Specifically, environmental regulation significantly mitigates the scale efficiency and technical efficiency of regulated enterprises. It also stimulates regulated enterprises' technological innovation and improves their factor allocation efficiency. In addition, state‐owned and large‐scale enterprises are more malleable when facing environmental regulations. We propose that the government should encourage enterprises to innovate and improve the allocation efficiency of production factors, so as to achieve the purpose of controlling environmental pollution in stages while extending enterprise duration.     

Locational effects and the cost of corporate bonds: the role of information

The public yield spreads of bonds vary widely between Chinese provinces/municipalities, with the average for the highest province double that of the lowest one. Although we find that these patterns are mainly attributable to economic and legal conditions, locational effects like geographic distance and public firm credit ratings also appear to be contributory. We show that these effects are induced by different regional informational environments and are robust to controlling for potential endogenous location choices.     

What types of homeowners are more likely to be entrepreneurs? The evidence from China

Small Business Economics - This paper highlights a previously undocumented observation regarding the heterogeneity of the association between entrepreneurship and homeownership across ownership...     

Reassessing the productivity gains from trade liberalization

This paper reassesses the impact of trade liberalization on productivity. We build a new, unique database of effective tariff rates at the country‐industry level for a broad range of countries over the past two decades. We then explore both the direct effect of liberalization in the sector considered, as well as its indirect impact in downstream industries via input linkages. Our findings point to a dominant role of the indirect input market channel in fostering productivity gains. A 1 percentage point decline in input tariffs is estimated to increase total factor productivity by about 2 percent in the sector considered. For advanced economies, the implied potential productivity gains from fully eliminating remaining tariffs are estimated at around 1 percent, on average, which do not factor in the presumably larger gains from removing existing non‐tariff barriers. Finally, we find suggestive evidence of complementarities between trade and FDI liberalization in boosting productivity. This calls for a broad liberalization agenda that cuts across different areas.     

Measuring price discovery between nearby and deferred contracts in storable and nonstorable commodity futures markets

Using price discovery measures, including Putniņš’ (2013) information leadership share and intraday data, we quantify the proportional contribution of nearby and deferred contracts in price discovery in the corn and live cattle futures markets. On average, nearby contracts reflect information more quickly than deferred contracts in the corn market, but have a relatively less dominant role in the live cattle market. In both markets, the nearby contract loses dominance when its relative volume share dips below 50%, which typically occurs when the nearby is close to maturity. Regression results indicate that the share of price discovery is mainly related to trading volume and time to expiration in both markets. In the corn market, price discovery share between nearby and deferred contracts is also related to inverse carrying charges, crop year differences, USDA announcements, market crashes, and commodity index position rolls. Differences between corn and live cattle markets are consistent with differences in the contracts’ liquidity and commodity storability.     

Understanding Heterogeneous Consumer Preferences in Chinese Milk Markets: A Latent Class Approach

We examine heterogeneous consumer preferences in Chinese milk markets. Using a discrete choice experiment, we examine how the brand, quality certification, traceability label and price influence consumers' milk choices. We identify four consumer segments using a latent class model: price conscious (9.8%), balanced thinking (19.8%), health conscious (57.5%), and environment conscious (12.9%) consumers. These four segments have distinct preferences: price conscious consumers prefer green certification; balanced thinking consumers have the highest willingness to pay for traceability labels; health conscious consumers have strong brand awareness; and environment conscious consumers prefer organic certification and traceability labels and use price as a quality signal. Such diversity of consumer preference can be explained by four psychological factors: price consciousness, food safety concerns, health consciousness and environmental concerns.     

The impact of trading restrictions and margin requirements on stock index futures

Stock index futures in Chinese market have consistently diverged from their theoretical values. In this paper, we try to provide some explanations by proposing an equilibrium model. Although the model itself does not provide analytical solutions, it enables us to conduct extensive numerical studies and compare them with our empirical results on two major Chinese market indices, CSI300 and SSE50. Our results show that the divergence of stock index futures prices from their theoretical values may be due to various trading and regulatory constraints, such as position limits and margin requirements, which play significant roles in Chinese market.