A social forecast revisited

In 1971, the authors produced a 30-year forecast of leisure in the UK. In 2001 they obtained survey data for comparison with the forecasts. The paper presents the original forecasts and describes the methods used to produce them, assesses their accuracy in the light of the survey data, and concludes with some reflections on the underlying forecasting methodology and on changes in leisure patterns.     

How Monetary Policy can have Permanent Real Effects with Only Temporary Nominal Rigidity

A macroeconomic model is developed in which the psychological concept of loss aversion is incorporated into workers' preferences. The impact of monetary policy in the presence of loss aversion depends on the specification of the reference wage. The plausible specification that a worker's reference wage is the real wage she was paid in the previous period is considered in detail. Specifying the reference wage in this way, we show that an unanticipated change in monetary policy has a permanent, real effect when short term labour contracts are written in nominal wages.     

The Development and Interim Validation of A Dimensions-Based Senior Management Assessment Centre

Hugh McCredie, Group Staff Manager of Glynwed International, and Viv Shackleton, Senior Lecturer in Work Psychology at Aston Business School, describe the design of a dimensionally based assessment centre for potential general managers and give an interim evaluation of the centre's operation. While confirming some of the doubts expressed by critics about the usefulness of such dimensions in arriving at overall assessment ratings, they make a case for their value in terms of longer term career progression and training/development action arising out of attendance at the centre.     

Identity Regulation as Organizational Control: Producing the Appropriate Individual

This paper takes the regulation of identity as a focus for examining organizational control. It considers how employees are enjoined to develop self-images and work orientations that are deemed congruent with managerially defined objectives. This focus on identity extends and deepens themes developed within other analyses of normative control. Empirical materials are deployed to illustrate how managerial intervention operates, more or less intentionally and in/effectively, to influence employees' self-constructions in terms of coherence, distinctiveness and commitment. The processual nature of such control is emphasized, arguing that it exists in tension with other intra and extra-organizational claims upon employees' sense of identity in a way that can open a space for forms of micro-emancipation.     

ISOLATING THE WILD CARD OPTION

Many embedded options are difficult to value the wild card option in the Treasury bond futures contract is one of these embedded options. We illustrate how narrow theoretical bounds on the value of this option, relative to the price of the contract, may be obtained in the presence of other embedded options. Simulations suggest that the value of the wild card option is close to zero. This implies that, in this economy, a simpler pricing model of the Treasury bond futures contract, which ignores the wild card option, will result in only a small loss of accuracy.