Modeling Marketing Dynamics by Time Series Econometrics

This paper argues that time-series econometrics provides valuable tools and opens exciting research opportunities to marketing researchers. It allows marketing researchers to advance traditional modeling and estimation approaches by incorporating dynamic processes to answer new important research questions. The authors discuss the challenges facing time-series modelers in marketing, provide an overview of recent methodological developments and several applications, and highlight fruitful areas for future research. This discussion is based on the First Annual Conference on Modeling Marketing Dynamics by Time Series Econometrics at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth, Hanover, New Hampshire, USA on September 16–17, 2004.Insights from the First Annual Conference, Tuck School of Business at DartmouthThis revised version was published online in May 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

Functional fixation: Experimental evidence on the presentation of financial information through different digital formats

This study examines whether, in the presentation of financial information, digital formats address the concern over users’ functional fixation. The accounting literature indicates that the presentation of financial information either within the financial statements or in the notes to the financial statements often creates functional fixation where users of financial statements fail to adjust for differences in accounting policy. This leads users to judge what would otherwise be identical financial situations as being different due to the different accounting policies and methods adopted. It has been suggested that the use of digital formats in presenting financial reports may overcome functional fixation. Using an experimental design involving accountants in public practice, the results indicate that the use of digital formats to present financial reports does not fully overcome the issue of functional fixation in the processing of financial information. Although the participants were able to identify and extract relevant information, irrespective of whether or not the information was presented within the financial statements or in the notes to the accounts, the evidence indicates that functional fixation remained when the participants made final decisions based on available information. This suggests that functional fixation may not be caused by access to or extraction of information but by the level of perceived significance based on where the information is reported in the financial statements. In general, the results indicate that current technology may not be able to fully reduce functional fixation in the evaluation of financial information prepared in accordance with different accounting policies and methods.     

Price expectations of sheep and goats by producers and intermediaries in Quetta market,Pakistan

Analysis of producers' and intermediaries' livestock price expectations was used to describe the market in Quetta, the largest livestock market in the highlands of Balochistan Province, Pakistan, and to identify factors that determine price expectations of small ruminants. A total of 4800 expected prices for sheep and goats were collected from producers and market intermediaries at monthly intervals between January 1991 and December 1992. In addition to the expected price of the animal, liveweight, species, sex, breed, body condition (fatness), calendar day and month were recorded, and whether data were collected on a meat or meatless day. Monthly rainfall data were also collected. Models of goat and sheep price expectations were built to compare the similarity of the behaviour of producers and intermediaries. Results indicated that producers and intermediaries expected high prices from November to January and during religious holidays. They expected premiums and discounts related to animals' attributes. Liveweight and seasonality had the strongest effect on prices. Rainfall in the current and previous month was positively related to seller's expected prices suggesting that livestock are retained to take advantage of favourable grazing conditions. The models of price expectations showed that producers adjusted expected goat prices (P ≤ 0.10) for seasonality, liveweight, body condition, age, sex and breed, while they adjusted sheep prices for seasonality and liveweight only. High pay-offs could be expected if extension efforts focused on factors that determine sheep meat quality; however, the retail ceiling price of meat and the lack of grading are a disincentive to work in this direction. Seasonality of supply and demand is important in determining prices and this study provides baseline information for market scheduling; however, scheduling of sales of transhumant pastoralists may be difficult to achieve. Further investigation is justified to understand the gap in marketing knowledge between producers who sell in the villages and those who sell in Quetta.     

Household bargaining over fertility: Theory and evidence from Malaysia

We develop and test a model of household bargaining over fertility when transfers between spouses are possible. The model makes precise how the fertility preferences of each spouse translate into fertility outcomes. We show this depends on whether or not spouses can commit to their future actions within marriage. If couples bargain with commitment, fertility outcomes take account of both spouses' fertility preferences and do not depend on the threat point in marital bargaining. If couples bargain without commitment, the influence of each spouse's fertility preference on fertility outcomes depends on the relevant threat point in marital bargaining, and the distribution of bargaining power. We test the models using household data from the Malaysia Family Life Survey. This data set contains information on each spouse's desired fertility level, as well as fertility outcomes. We exploit differences in threat points in marital bargaining across ethnic groups to help identify the underlying bargaining model. The evidence suggests couples bargain without commitment.     

Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Impacts of High-Ability Peers in Early Years*

The sorting of students into ability groups is one of the most common, controversial and long-examined educational practices. Ability grouping also mechanically changes peer groups. We provide novel evidence on the cognitive and non-cognitive impacts in early years, of being exposed to higher-ability classroom peers through being assigned to the top within-class ability group. We exploit panel data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study, which allows us to construct trajectories of the cognitive and non-cognitive development of children from birth to entry into primary school. The data also record school grouping policies and the specific within-class group assignment of each child, by subject. We combine these rich data with an instrumental variable design using child-level variation in group assignment due to month of birth, in order to measure the local average treatment effect (LATE) of being assigned to the highest-ability peer group. We find that if a marginal student is assigned higher-ability peers, this significantly reduces their cognitive achievement in mathematics, and has no impact on literacy. There are countervailing impacts on non-cognitive outcomes for the marginal student assigned higher-ability peers: although they are more motivated to study and parents respond with an improved home learning environment, these children have more study-related difficulties and their relations with their peers significantly worsen. These findings have important policy implications for the use and design of within-class ability grouping in early years.     

Markets and welfare effects of food fraud

This study develops a theoretical framework of heterogeneous consumers and producers and imperfectly competitive food companies to analyse the system‐wide market and welfare effects of food fraud in the form of food adulteration and mislabelling. The results show that, while the price impacts of food fraud are product‐specific with the equilibrium prices of high‐quality and low‐quality products moving in different directions, the equilibrium quantities depend on the relative magnitude of the demand and supply effects of food fraud. Regarding the welfare effects of food fraud, they are shown to be highly asymmetric across different consumers and producers. In addition to enabling the disaggregation of the welfare effects of food fraud, the explicit consideration of agent heterogeneity, asymmetries in the probability of fraud detection and the endogeneity of the producer quality choices also enables the derivation of a key result of this study; contrary to what is traditionally believed, both low‐quality and high‐quality producers can have economic incentives to commit fraud. The group that is more likely to cheat is determined by the social attitudes towards fraudulent behaviour, the enforcement policy parameters and the relative magnitude of the demand and supply effects of food fraud. A comparison of the market effects of mislabelling and food adulteration reveals that, while the equilibrium quantity of the high‐quality product is higher in the presence of mislabelling, producers are more likely to mislabel than adulterate their products.     

The determinants of international migration: Unbundling the role of economic,political and social institutions

International migrants may relocate because of economic, political and social factors in their origin or destination countries. Using global bilateral migration flows from 103 countries over the period 1990–2000, we explore whether emigrants self-select based on economic, political and social institutions. Our study adds social dimension as a potential determinant of migration and separates the pull and push effects of political, economic and social institutions. Our results indicate that economic, political and social institutions are significant pull factors of migration; economic freedom has the most substantial pull effect followed by the political institutions; social institutions have the weakest pull effect on migration. Moreover, economic and social institutions are significant push factors of migration, while political institutions do not show any push effect. Furthermore, educated migrants are more sensitive to the destination economic, political and social institutions than less-educated migrants, and less-educated migrants are more sensitive to the social institutions at the origin.     

Customer-based brand equity and destination visit behaviour in the tourism industry: the contingent role of social media

Quality & Quantity - This study aims to examine the role of customer-based brand equity (CBBE) in relation to the intention to select a destination as a tourist destination with the moderating...     

Social capital in the workplace: Evidence on its formation and consequences

The existence of social ties between co-workers affect many aspects of firm and worker behavior, such as how workers respond to a given set of incentives, the optimal compensation structures for workers at different tiers of the firm hierarchy, and the optimal organizational design for the firm. This paper presents evidence on the social capital in one particular firm, as embodied in the friendship ties among its workers. We describe the structure of the friendship network as a whole and present evidence on the determinants of social ties. Finally, we review evidence from a field experiment we conducted in the firm to highlight one particular mechanism through which social capital significantly affects worker performance.     

Effect of analysts’ earnings pressure on marketing spending and stock market performance

Despite the clearly visible effects of analysts’ pressures on C-level executives in the popular press, there is limited evidence on their effects on marketing spending decisions. This study asks two questions. First, how do analysts’ pressures affect firms’ short-term marketing spending decisions? Based on a sample of 2706 firms during 1987–2009 compiled from Institutional Brokers Earning System, COMPUSTAT, and CRSP databases we find that firms cut marketing spending. Second, more importantly, we ask if firms which remained more committed in the past to marketing spending under analysts’ pressures have higher longer-term stock market performance. We find that the stock market performance of firms more committed to marketing spending under past periods of analysts’ pressures is higher. The findings are replicated for R&D spending and are robust across measures, controls, and methodologies. Consideration of two industry-based moderators, R&D spending and revenue growth, and one firm-based moderator, whether the firm is among the industry’s top four market share or other lower share firms, reveals that the findings are stronger for high R&D and growth industries and lower market share firms. One key implication is that top executives respond to analysts’ pressures by cutting marketing spending in the short term; however, if they can resist these pressures, longer-term stock market performance is higher.