跨国石油巨头何去何从

从表面上看，对于石油行业来说，没有比当下更好的时代了。需求迅猛增长，全球供给紧张，将油价一路推升至历史高点，至今尚未看到向下的拐点。虽然新的开发和开采项目的投资水平已经达到历史最高，大型石油公司仍然富余足够现金返还股东，未来的5至8年内在开发项目上仍将持续产出。     

食物消费与肥胖——基于食物特点的消费者分层研究

本文结合当今中国最突出的现象——日益增长的消费者社会和快速上升的肥胖流行趋势，利用2002年中国居民营养与健康状况调查资料，采用因子分析和聚类分析相结合的方法，将消费者按照食物消费特点进行分层，结果得到4个不同的膳食特点的消费群体，即“黄土高坡”、“江南水乡”、“小康之家”、“西洋情调”。本文比较了各类膳食特点人群的肥胖率及社会人口学特点，结果显示，处于社会经济状况较好的“小康之家”和“西洋情调”组由于膳食中较高比例的动物性食物的摄入，超重和肥胖率最高；中等生活水平的“江南水乡”组由于较为平衡的膳食结构，超重和肥胖率最低；而社会经济状况较差的“黄土高坡”人群，膳食质量较差，但超重和肥胖率却较高，是应特别引起关注的人群。     

Rating versus ranking: What is the best way to reduce response and language bias in cross-national research?

We propose solutions to two recurring problems in cross-national research: response style differences and language bias. In order to do so, we conduct a methodological comparison of two different response formats—rating and ranking. For rating, we assess the effect of changing the commonly used 5-point Likert scales to 7-point Likert scales. For ranking, we evaluate the validity of presenting respondents with short scenarios for which they need to rank their top 3 solutions. Our results – based on two studies of 1965 undergraduate and 1714 MBA students in 16 different countries – confirm our hypotheses that both solutions reduce response and language bias, but show that ranking generally is a superior solution. These findings allow researchers to have greater confidence in the validity of cross-national differences if these response formats are used, instead of the more traditional 5-point Likert scales. In addition, our findings have several practical implications for multinational corporations, relating to issues such as selection interviews, performance appraisals, and cross-cultural training.     

IMF Support and Inter-Regime Exchange Rate Volatility

It is widely agreed that when moving from fixed to floating exchange rates the increase in exchange rate volatility is not matched by an equivalent rise in the volatility of fundamentals. We argue and demonstrate that in inter-regime comparisons one has to account for ‘missing variables’ that compensate for the fundamental variables’ volatility under fixed exchange rates. Previous studies have often used foreign exchange reserves, but without much success. We argue why reserves are not a reliable measure, while IMF credit support is. Our empirical analysis identifies IMF support as a crucial and significant compensating variable.     

The political economy of tax projections

This paper addresses the political economy of tax projections. It argues that governments face incentives to present upward biased tax projections. In election years, this may help them to increase the chance of reelection. If this chance is low, biased tax projections help governments to bring forward favorable expenditures and to burden their successors. These hypotheses are tested using West German states between 1992 and 2002. While there is only weak support for a general upward bias in tax projection and the importance of elections and partisanship, the degree of overestimation is found to be significantly higher, the less popular the incumbent party is and the poorer the state-specific economic performance.     

Inflation Expectations and Inflation Uncertainty in the Eurozone: Evidence from Survey Data

This paper uses the European Commission’s Consumer Survey to assess whether inflation expectations have converged and whether inflation uncertainty has diminished following the introduction of the euro in Europe. Consumers’ responses to the survey suggest that inflation expectations depend more on past national inflation rates than on the ECB’s anchor for price stability. Inflation expectations do not converge significantly faster than actual inflation rates. Regarding inflation uncertainty, the data indicate a relationship with country size following the introduction of the euro. This suggests that within EMU, inflation uncertainty may increase in countries that have a smaller influence on ECB policy. JEL no.  D84, E31, E58     

European time-series relationships between inflation and inflation uncertainty: In search of threshold levels

Summary Cross-country studies have found threshold levels of inflation below which the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty appears to break down. However, Ball's (1992) theory suggests that threshold levels should be studied in a time-series context. This study documents these threshold levels. For this purpose, the conditional variance of inflation is modeled as a GARCH process that includes not only lagged squared residuals and conditional variance estimates but also a predetermined inflation variable. A two-step procedure is used to identify the ranges of this inflation variable that determine the significance of its coefficient. Empirical results are presented for the four West European G-7 countries: Italy, Germany, the UK, and France.The second author appreciates financial support by The Netherlands Organization for Science Research (N.W.O.). The authors thank Eduard Bomhoff, the editor and two anonymous referees for their useful comments and suggestions.