Forecasting Heavy‐Tailed Densities with Positive Edgeworth and Gram‐Charlier Expansions*

This article presents a new semi‐nonparametric (SNP) density function, named Positive Edgeworth‐Sargan (PES). We show that this distribution belongs to the family of (positive) Gram‐Charlier (GC) densities and thus it preserves all the good properties of this type of SNP distributions but with a much simpler structure. The in‐ and out‐of‐sample performance of the PES is compared with symmetric and skewed GC distributions and other widely used densities in economics and finance. The results confirm the PES as a good alternative to approximate financial returns distribution, specially when skewness is not severe.     

State-society relations and national development: a comparison of Argentina and Taiwan in the 1990s

Research on national development in developing and newly industrializing countries (NICs) has focused on issues of economic growth and social change independent of each other, without paying much attention to the way the two elements relate to each other and to the conditions that could lead to their simultaneous occurrence. This paper argues that explanations of how economic growth with — or without —‘positive social change’ can occur require attention to changing state-society relations. This research investigates the cases of Argentina and Taiwan, where economic growth in the 1990s has not translated into positive social change. By analyzing changing state-society relations, this research shows that relations of power within societies have a clear effect on national development; it also reveals how different social actors may be able to influence a state’s developmental strategies. This paper re-evaluates traditional views of the state and society in Argentina and Taiwan by examining the fluctuating composition of the societal base of the state and the changing relations between the state and its societal coalition. The analysis reveals the processes under which economic growth without social change is occurring in both countries, and provides general insights into the way dynamic state-society relations can influence national development in other contexts. — La recherche sur le développement national des pays en voie de développement et les pays nouvellement industrialisés a exploré les questions de croissance économique et de changement social séparément, sans s’occuper du rapport entre les deux et des conditions qui pourraiemt mener à leur occurrence simultanée. Cet article soutient qu’une explication de la croissance industrielle, avec ou sans ‘changements sociaux positifs’, demande que l’on prête attention aux relations changeantes entre l’état et la société. Cet article examine les cas d’étude de l’Argentine et de Taï?wan, où la croissance économique n’a pas apporté de changements sociaux positifs. En analysant les relations changeantes de l’état et de la société, cette étude démontre que les relations de pouvoir à l’intérieur des sociétés ont un effet manifeste sur le développement national; elle révèle aussi comment les différents participants sociaux peuvent influencer les stratégies de développement de l’état. Cet article ré-évalue les vues traditionnelles de l’état et de la société en Argentine et à Taïrsquo;?wan en examinant les compositions changeantes de la base sociale de l’état et les relations variables entre l’état et sa coalition sociale. L’analyse révèle les processus par lesquels la croissance économique survient sans changement social dans les deux pays et offre un aperçu général de la façon dont les relations dynamiques entre l’état et la société peuvent influencer le développement national dans d’autres contextes.     

Economic inequality in Spain: the european community household panel dataset

This article uses data from the 1998 European Community Household Panel to study economic inequality in Spain. It reports data on the Spanish distributions of income, labor income, and capital income, and on related features of inequality, such as age, employment status, educational attainment, and marital status. It also reports data on the income mobility of Spanish households, and data on income inequality in other European countries and in the US. We find that income, earnings, and, especially, capital income are very unequally distributed in Spain and that economic inequality in Spain is well above the European average.     

Validating a model for forecasting the project termination phase using existing business cases

Studies on project failure and its subsequent termination phase are scarce; studies that use a quantitative approach are almost nonexistent. This is most likely because organizations usually do not collect data on project failures, are unable to share such data, or a combination of both. The contribution of this article is twofold: to (1) showcase a methodology to validate a model using actual business cases and (2) validate a project termination phase forecast model (PTPFM) using the methodology. The model is validated through four business cases, comparing the results from the model to the decisions made in reality.     

On the contribution of eco-innovation features to a circular economy: A microlevel quantitative approach

The circular economy (CE) and eco-innovation (EI) are two concepts deemed instrumental in achieving a sustainable transition. They have been proposed in the academic literature and by practitioners and have acquired very high public policy relevance, being endorsed by policymakers and ultimately leading to regulations supporting them. It has been argued that both concepts are compatible and interrelated and that EI is instrumental in achieving the CE. However, little is known about how different EI features contribute to the CE at the microlevel. This article tries to cover this gap. Its aim is to assess and quantify the causal relationship between different EI features and the CE with the help of a unique dataset of small- and medium-sized firms in Spain and an econometric analysis. Our results show that only systemic EIs contribute to a global CE, whereas other EI types such as component additions or small changes in existing production processes could even be barriers to high levels of circularity. It is found out that technological novelty is not relevant for reaching the CE. The results support the understanding of how EIs enable a transition to the CE. Care should be taken not to promote incremental EIs that do not only achieve low (or no) circularity but that effectively lock-in the economic system in solutions that entail a barrier to the achievement of high-level circularity.     

Firm size and productivity from occupational choices

Small Business Economics - We model the distributions of firm sizes and of firms’ total factor productivity (TFP) as outcomes of a market equilibrium from the occupational decisions of...     

The Dive and Disruption of Successful Current Products: Measures,Global Patterns,and Predictive Model

This study examines the diffusion of pairs of substitute products (current versus new) in five categories across 86 countries between 1977 and 2011. The study finds that current products reach a peak at about 56% of market penetration. Subsequently, they suffer a dramatic decrease in penetration of 286%, which we call the dive. A dive occurs in 96% of current products in five categories across 86 countries between 1977 and 2011. On average, the time from takeoff of new product to a peak in penetration of the current product is 6.6 years and to the dive of the current product is 8.4 years. The total time‐to‐dive includes a hidden discontinuance period (10.4 years), from the introduction of the new product to the peak of the current product, plus an overt time‐to‐dive (1.8 years), from the peak to the dive of the current product. The hidden discontinuance period and the overt time‐to‐dive are shorter, and the dive is steeper in emerging markets than in developed ones. A discrete‐time hazard model shows that the introduction of the new product, prior penetration of the current product, the population density of the country, and prior dives in other countries predict intercountry the hazard of a peak. Subsequently, takeoff of the new product, relative percentage growth in penetration of the current product prior to a peak, the length of the hidden discontinuance period, and prior dives in other countries predict the hazard of a dive. The models can predict the occurrence of a peak with true positive rate of 62% and a true negative rate of 87%, and a dive with a true positive rate of 82% and a true negative rate of 61%.     

Immigration and local spending in social services: evidence from a massive immigration wave

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between immigration and redistributive public spending by using the recent, massive arrival of immigrants in Spain. Specifically, we focus our analysis on the effect of 1998–2006 changes in local immigrant density on contemporaneous changes in municipal spending in social services. To address the potential endogenous location of immigrants, we adopt an instrumental variables approach that uses the distribution of rental housing in 1991 to predict the location of immigrant inflows. The results indicate that (per capita) social spending increased less in those municipalities that recorded the largest increases in immigrant density. We interpret our results as a reduction in natives’ demand for redistributive public spending.     

Pareto-improving Immigration in an Economy with Equilibrium Unemployment

A dynamic two-country labour matching economy is presented. Workers decide whether to search in their native country or look for a job abroad (bearing an additional cost). The number of vacancies posted by firms in each country depends on the average characteristics of the workers searching inside that country. Wages are determined in an individual Nash bargain. We show the existence of multiple steady-state equilibria: one no-migration equilibrium and two migration equilibria. The multiplicity of equilibria is due to a self-fulfilling prophecy phenomenon linking average wages and incentives to migrate. The equilibria are Pareto-ranked, with migration-equilibria dominating no-migration.