商品价格指数是消费价格指数的前导变量吗?——基于二阶单整向量自回归模型的实证研究

本文首先阐述二阶单整协整向量自回归模型(I(2)CVAR)的理论和方法,然后构造一个包括消费价格指数以及其他三个商品价格指数的I(2)CVAR模型,用来实证检验中国总体价格指数和主要商品价格指数的长期和中期的均衡关系。此外还建立了一个I(1)CVAR模型作为补充,用来分析价格指数变动之间的协整关系以及调整系数。实证研究的结果表明,从长期看,消费价格指数的走势决定商品价格指数走势;从短期看,原材料价格指数的上涨会引起消费价格指数的上涨,因此,从短期看,原材料价格指数的通货膨胀可以作为总体价格指数通货膨胀的前导变量。     

我国货币政策效应的实证分析

本文通过建立VECM模型,基于协整与Granger因果关系检验,并运用脉冲响应函数对我国货币政策效应做实证分析。结果表明,我国货币政策效应主要体现为促进经济增长,经济系统对货币需求缺乏显著的抑制作用。宽松的货币政策在促进产出增长的同时也助长了股票市场和房地产市场价格的高涨。因此在经济运行中要注意通货膨胀的风险,防范股票市场和房地产市场泡沫。     

Can you get what you pay for? Pay‐for‐performance and the quality of healthcare providers

Despite the popularity of pay-for-performance (P4P) among health policymakers and private insurers as a tool for improving quality of care, there is little empirical basis for its effectiveness. We use data from published performance reports of physician medical groups contracting with a large network HMO to compare clinical quality before and after the implementation of P4P, relative to a control group. We consider the effect of P4P on both rewarded and unrewarded dimensions of quality. In the end, we fail to find evidence that a large P4P initiative either resulted in major improvement in quality or notable disruption in care.     

财富效应、地区异质性与中国货币需求函数再估计

本文研究财富效应对我国货币需求的影响,将家庭住房财富变量加入标准货币需求函数,运用2005年第一季度至2019年第四季度分省数据,建立时间序列面板模型,对我国货币需求函数进行实证分析.研究发现住房价格和住房存量对货币需求有显著正向影响;加入住房财富变量后,货币需求的实际GDP弹性显著减小;当出现相对于均衡的偏离时,货币总量向均衡方向移动,说明货币总量主要由需求决定.本研究在几个方面有所创新:一是实证分析了住房财富变量对于我国货币需求函数的影响;二是实证模型的设定应用了最新时间序列面板模型分析技术,考虑了异质性和相关性,从而得到更加稳定的货币需求函数,提高了实证分析结果的可信性.研究结果为理解货币总量的决定因素和走势,判断货币政策状况提供了有用信息.     

Analysis and testing of a hidden stepladder hazard - excessive twist flexibility

Accidental falls from stepladders are responsible for tens of thousands of injuries in the US each year. This paper augues recent research concerning excessive stepladder twist flexibility, which can lead to ladder falls. Such falls can easily occur when only three of a ladder's four legs are in contact with the ground and an unknowing climber shifts his weight, causing the ladder's raised leg to move suddenly downward and the climber to lose his balance. The static and dynamic test and analysis results presented show a major cause of this hazard, its effect on climbers and the influence of ladder design on the likelihood of its occurrence. The inadequacy of existing stepladder safety standards to protect against such accidents is noted and a call for a new testing standard is outlined. It would be prudent to develop and implement a new racking test and stiffer ladder twist requirements to reduce the likelihood of inadvertent ladder racking.     

The influence of licence status on Kansas child fatalities due to motor vehicle crashes

The influence of driver licensure on child motor vehicle crash (MVC) deaths in Kansas was investigated. Fatalities from 1994-2000 due to MVCs were extracted from the Kansas State Child Death Review Board and the Fatality Analysis Reporting Systems databases. It was found that 14% (52 of 363) of child fatalities from MVCs in Kansas occurred in vehicles where the driver was not licensed. Driver licence status was associated with use of safety restraints, the victim's age and race, weekend driving and rural county location. All child deaths involving unlicensed drivers were preventable. New legislation on vehicle sanctions may be required to assist law enforcement. Safety restraint laws should be enforced and promoted to the public. Transportation options are necessary for unlicensed drivers, particularly if they have young children and live in a rural community. Thus, a multi-system approach involving law enforcement, accident prevention strategies and transportation options will save the lives of children.