Explaining Disagreement on Interest Rates in a Taylor‐Rule Setting

Most studies on disagreement focus on one specific variable, thereby neglecting the fact that disagreement can be co‐moving with disagreement on other variables. In this paper, we explore to what extent disagreement regarding the interest rate is driven by disagreement on inflation and unemployment. This relationship can be motivated by the theoretical concept of the Taylor rule. Using survey microdata for both professional forecasters and consumers, we provide evidence that disagreement on the interest rate is mainly driven by disagreement on inflation. We further show that disagreement is significantly influenced by central bank transparency, as well as news on money and credit conditions.     

Do birth order and family size matter for intergenerational income mobility? Evidence from Sweden

Previous studies of intergenerational income mobility have not considered potential birth-order or family-size effects in the estimated income elasticity. This article uses a large sample of individuals born between 1962 and 1964; income elasticities with respect to parents’ incomes are estimated for individuals with different birth-order positions and family sizes. Results based on labour income and total income for sons and daughters are reported separately. The elasticity tends to decrease with family size as well as with birth order for a given family size, especially in the labour-income analysis of fathers and sons.     

UNDERWRITER REPUTATION AND AFTERMARKET PERFORMANCE OF CLOSED‐END FUNDS

I find a positive relation between underwriter reputation and the initial and long‐run aftermarket performance of closed‐end funds. This relation persists even after controlling for fund characteristics, types, and investment strategies. The positive relation between underwriter reputation and initial returns supports the notion that prestigious investment bankers tend to promote a price run‐up in the immediate aftermarket to enhance their reputation with the issuers and the investors. The better long‐run performance for funds underwritten by prestigious underwriters suggests that prestigious underwriters protect their reputation by underwriting only high‐quality issues that will perform well in the long run.     

Occupational Choice: The Influence of Product vs. Process Innovation

Prior studies have found that knowledge gained from work experience is a way to gather insights for business opportunity recognition. However, little is known about the specific types of knowledge that lead to business founding. Utilizing concepts from knowledge spillovers and from the opportunity recognition literatures, this paper argues that an organization’s technological innovation activities can help its employees develop specialized knowledge that provides them with the entrepreneurial opportunities to found new businesses. Besides highlighting the positive relationship between technological innovation activities in organizations and the propensity of individuals leaving the organizations to start new businesses, this paper also provides a more fine-grained explanation of the types of technological innovation activities that can lead to business founding. We argue that knowledge acquired through product innovations is more easily adopted by individuals for commercial uses, while knowledge acquired through process innovations must be integrated with other parts of the organization to be valuable. This study proposes that product innovation activities in an organization, more so than process innovation activities, are related to new business founding. Implications for opportunity exploitation and ways to exploit knowledge spillovers are discussed.      

Inflation perceptions and expectations in Sweden – Are media reports the missing link?

We analyze the interrelation between consumers' quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations as well as actual inflation rates in Sweden. The role of media reports about inflation is emphasized. Structural vector error correction models show stable cointegration between actual, perceived and expected inflation. Impulse responses and forecast error variance decompositions suggest strong interaction between perceived and expected inflation, with a lesser role for actual inflation. Media effects are generally small, but imply an asymmetric reaction of inflation expectations and perceptions to news on increasing vs. decreasing inflation. Thus, to anchor inflation expectations, central banks should explore better communication channels to inform consumers about actual inflation.     

New Keynesian dynamics in a low interest rate environment

Recent research has found that the dynamic properties of the New Keynesian model are unorthodox when the nominal interest rate is zero. Improvements in technology and reductions in the labor tax rate lower economic activity and the size of the government purchase output multiplier is very large. This paper provides evidence that these results are not empirically relevant. We show that a prototypical New Keynesian model fit to Japanese data exhibits orthodox dynamics during Japan's episode with zero interest rates. We then demonstrate that this specification is more consistent with outcomes in Japan than alternative specifications that have unorthodox properties.     

Perceived inflation under loss aversion

Building on prospect theory, we apply the concept of loss aversion to the formation of inflation perceptions and test empirically for nonlinearities in the inflation-perceptions relation for a panel of 10 Euro area countries. Specifically, under the assumption of loss aversion, inflation changes above a certain reference rate will be perceived more strongly. Rejecting rationality of inflation perceptions in general under symmetric loss and in a majority of cases under flexible loss functions, panel smooth transition models give evidence of nonlinearities in the inflation-perceptions relation regarding both actual inflation and time. This result is confirmed by dynamic fixed effects estimates, where the slope of the estimated value function is significantly steeper in the loss region and the implied average reference inflation rate is found close to 2%.     

Examining the Influence of the Individual in Arts Sponsorship Decisions

Support from the corporate sector is an important revenue source for many nonprofit organizations. In this article, we consider individual-level influence within the decision-making processes of companies as they make decisions concerning nonprofit arts sponsorship. These decisions have often been linked to the influence of a single high-level executive, and the research contained here seeks to better understand the role of the individual in influencing these decisions. Through qualitative multiple-case research the authors find that a single individual, termed the advocate, is in fact influential. Furthermore, the advocate is determined not by their title or official ranking but by their possession of expert power, a combination of knowledge and the belief of others in that knowledge. In addition, how individuals influence these decisions relates to their application not of gut instinct, but of informed intuition. The article closes in suggesting new perspectives that will assist in better understanding this role.