Energiesparen: Warum wird Beratung gefördert?

Home renovation is generally asserted to be a highly effective means to increase residential energy efficiency and thereby contribute to climate protection from reduced energy consumption. As part of a larger package of measures in the residential sector, the German government is consequently providing financial support for home audits from recognized energy experts who provide advice on retrofitting options. To date, the question concerning the effectiveness these home audits has largely escaped empirical scrutiny. The present paper fills this void by providing evidence for considerable free-rider effects within the home audit program, yielding serious reservations with respect to both the effectiveness of the program and its fiscal costs. Moreover, given the substantial differences between the gross- and net effects of home audits that are revealed by this analysis, the program’s contribution to climate protection and thereby the central justification for the associated government outlays is called into question. The social benefit of the program emerges only from those retrofits that would not have been undertaken in the absence of the home audit.     

Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: Longer-term,non-linear orientation on PPP

How is it possible that exchange rates move in the long run towards fundamentals, while professionals form consistently irrational exchange rate expectations? We look at this puzzle from a different perspective by analyzing investor sentiment in the US-dollar market. First, long-horizon regressions show that investor sentiment is connected with exchange rate returns at longer horizons, i.e. more than two years. Second, sentiment is cointegrated with fundamentals, whereas third, this relation becomes stronger, the larger exchange rate's misalignment from long-run PPP. In sum, investor sentiment's behavior in the US-dollar market closely matches with established facts of empirical exchange rate research.     

A parsimonious model to forecast financial distress,based on audit evidence

This paper provides evidence that audit reports convey relevant evidence for inferring the existence of underlying, unrevealed, financial imbalances. Unlike previous works, which studied US listed-firms bankruptcy, our research deals with Spanish non-financial SMEs under financial stress. Our results indicate that the audit of distressed SMEs has several distinctive features: higher auditor rotation, more qualified reports, and non-compliance with deadlines to approve and file the annual financial statements. We use this evidence to build and test a parsimonious and reliable forecast model. Several implications for auditors’ independence, information quality, and failure forecast are discussed.     

Evolving China Strategies: How the Japanese Compare

Taking a sceptical view of the ‘Asian miracles’ proposition that government failure is the main culprit behind development failure, this article reviews the Philippine development experience. The Philippine configuration consists of a weak state carrying out industrial promotion and a large private sector whose dynamics depend heavily on state-managed privileges. In the final section, the article proposes an alternative to the rent-seeking model, in which rents defined as returns contingent on political position and rivalry over political position determine private investment behaviour. In such a society, there is limited internal basis for structural change and growth is accidental to external developments.     

The use of trading strategies by fund managers: some first survey evidence

A questionnaire survey has found that most fund managers rely on the strategies of buy-&-hold, momentum and contrarian trading. These strategies are typically applied mutually. Their use is rooted in the attributes and beliefs of the respective fund managers: buy-&-hold traders are fundamentally oriented, risk averse and are less (over)confident than others. Momentum traders appear as the least risk-averse professionals, going aggressively with the trend. Contrarian traders, however, show signs of overconfidence and peculiar risk aversion, both indicating difficulties in successful strategy implementation. The behavioural patterns revealed are not easily reconciled with efficient markets.     

GENERAL AND PARTIAL EQUILIBRIA IN A CONSUMPTION ECONOMY

We consider a simple aggregative consumption economy, where there is a market for commodities and four financial markets: for bonds, deposits, credits and some speculative asset. There is a Wicksellian central bank. The existence of temporary equilibrium is discussed by considering partial equilibria in the different markets.