Bayesian updates using precursor events

It is common practice among technological forecasters to use precursor events to anticipate technological change. However, the information obtained from precursor events is usually qualitative in nature. A previous paper demonstrated that information about prior “similar” innovations can be used to generate a probability distribution of lag times between a precursor event and the event to be forecast, thus making the forecasts more quantitative. This paper presents a method for using Bayes' Equation to update probability distributions of lag time using the occurrence of additional precursor events.     

The effect of pro-environmental attitudes and eco-labelling information on green purchasing decisions in Australia

The main purpose of this study is to measure the effects of pro-environmental attitudes, knowledge, and eco-labeling information on green purchasing decisions. Data were collected from 400 undergraduate students studying at an Australian University. The findings suggest that pro-environmental attitude and eco-labeling information significantly affect green purchasing decisions. Eco-labeling, however, plays a more significant role in influencing green purchasing decisions. Finally, implications and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

SOLVABLE AFFINE TERM STRUCTURE MODELS

An Affine Term Structure Model (ATSM) is said to be solvable if the pricing problem has an explicit solution, i.e., the corresponding Riccati ordinary differential equations have a regular globally integrable flow. We identify the parametric restrictions which are necessary and sufficient for an ATSM with continuous paths, to be solvable in a state space     , where     , the domain of positive factors, has the geometry of a symmetric cone. This class of state spaces includes as special cases those introduced by Duffie and Kan (1996) , and Wishart term structure processes discussed by Gourieroux and Sufana (2003) . For all solvable models we provide the procedure to find the explicit solution of the Riccati ODE.     

Bond Price and Impulse Response Function for the Balduzzi, Das, Foresi and Sundaram (1996) Model

In this paper, we analyse the Affine Term Structure Model (ATSM) proposed by Balduzzi, Das, Foresi and Sundaram (BDFS, 1996) and provide the closed-form expression of the bond price. In addition, we extend the notion of Impulse Response Function to the class of ATSM. We show that it is closely related to the duration measure, and we compute it explicitly in the BDFS model.     

Risk,success, and failure: female entrepreneurship in late Victorian and Edwardian England

This article analyses female entrepreneurship in late Victorian and Edwardian England. Traditional views on female entrepreneurship in nineteenth‐ and twentieth‐century England point towards a decline in the number and relevance of women as business owners in comparison to the eighteenth century, and their retreat into a ‘separate sphere’ away from the world of trade and production. Recent studies, however, have deeply challenged this view, suggesting that women still played an important role as entrepreneurs during industrialization and beyond. Nevertheless, a number of questions remain unanswered with regard to the features of female entrepreneurship during these phases of British history, and issues such as scale of operation, attitude to risk, credit structure, and managerial styles are still widely debated. Using original sources, this article provides a novel view on these issues, analysing female entrepreneurship from the perspective of bankruptcy. Analysing statistics on women's bankruptcy derived from Board of Trade reports, as well as a sample of archival cases, this article argues that overall female business owners traded in ways similar to their male counterparts in terms of business size, risk‐taking, and, eventually, success.     

Option pricing when correlations are stochastic: an analytical framework

In this paper we develop a novel market model where asset variances–covariances evolve stochastically. In addition shocks on asset return dynamics are assumed to be linearly correlated with shocks driving the variance–covariance matrix. Analytical tractability is preserved since the model is linear-affine and the conditional characteristic function can be determined explicitly. Quite remarkably, the model provides prices for vanilla options consistent with observed smile and skew effects, while making it possible to detect and quantify the correlation risk in multiple-asset derivatives like basket options. In particular, it can reproduce and quantify the asymmetric conditional correlations observed on historical data for equity markets. As an illustrative example, we provide explicit pricing formulas for rainbow “Best-of” options.     

Notes and Comments: Sup-convolutions of HARA utilities in the affine term structure

Abstract In the financial literature, the problem of maximizing the expected utility of the terminal wealth has been investigated extensively (for a survey, see, e.g., Karatzas and Shreve (1998), p. 153, and references therein) by using different approaches. In this paper, we extend the existing literature in two directions. First, we let the utility function U(.) of the financial agent (who is a price taker) be implicitly defined through I(.)=(U ^′ (.))^–1, which is assumed to be additively separable, i.e., I(.)=∑ _k=1 ^N I _k (.). Second, we solve the investment problem in the general affine term structure model proposed by Duffie and Kan (1996) in which the functions I _k (.), k=1,...,N are associated to HARA utility functions (with possibly different risk aversion parameters), and we show that the utility maximization problem leads to a Riccati ODE. Moreover, we extend to the multi-factor framework the stability result proved in Grasselli (2003), namely, the almost-sure convergence of the solution with respect to the parameters of the utility function. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B28 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: G11