Food Security and Food Productivity in Sudan, 1970–95

Against the backdrop of a persistent food insecurity problem in Sudan which has prevailed since the mid 1970s, this paper makes use of the ordinary least squares (OLS) method of analysis to assess the performance of the national development strategies encapsulated in various medium‐term plans and programs between 1970/71 and 1992/93 with respect to achieving their objective of national self sufficiency in food production through both vertical and horizontal expansion in food production. An exponential function is used to estimate the trends in area, production, and productivity for three major staple crops, namely sorghum, wheat, and millet using annual time series data covering the period 1970–95. The results provide clear evidence that vertical expansion alone does not pay off in terms of output. Instead, policies should focus more on improving agricultural productivity via the introduction of new varieties and the application of technological packages. These policies must then be reinforced by efforts to improve infrastructure, including health and education, to pave the way for a positive supply response at lower costs. Experience has shown that food security, as a prelude to industrial growth is not likely to be achieved if agricultural productivity is not increased. Face à l’insécurité alimentaire persistante qui a prévalu au Soudan depuis le milieu des années 70, cette étude utilise la méthode des moindres carrés ordinaires pour évaluer la performance des stratégies nationales de développment. Celles‐ci sont consacrées par les différents plans et programmes à moyen terme appliqués entre 1970/71 et 1992/93 en vue de réaliser l’objectif d’autosuffisance alimentaire par l’expansion verticale et horizontale de la production alimentaire. Une fonction est utilisée pour estimer, par le biais de séries chronologiques annuelles couvrant la période 1970–1995, l’evolution des superficies, de la production et de la productivité des trois grandes cultures que sont le sorgho, le blé et le mil. Il ressort clairement des résultats que l’expansion verticale à elle seule ne permet pas d’augmenter les rendements. Les mesures devraient viser davantage à améliorer la productivité agricole en introduisant de nouvelles variétés et en appliquant des programmes technologiques. Ces mesures doivent ensuite à tre renforcées par des actions tendant à améliorer les infrastructures, notamment celles de santé et d’éducation, pour favoriser une réaction positive de l’offre à des coûts moins élevés. On sait par expérience que la sécurité alimentaire, en tant que prélude à la croissance industrielle, a peu de chances d’être réalisée si la productivité agricole n’est pas renforcée.     

Fixed price equilibria in an overlapping generations model with investment

We study fixed price temporary equilibria (with rationing) and sequences of temporary equilibria in a three commodities (goods, labor, bonds) overlapping generations model with endogenous investment. Young consumers, living two periods, work, consume, and buy bonds for financing next period's consumption. New firms, existing for two periods, make a production plan for the next period, taking into account expected rationing, assumed similar to present rationing. The plan determines the amount of goods to buy as capital, financed by bonds. Old firms produce, using labor and the previously bought capital. Different regimes exist and expectations can be self-fulfilling and self-destroying.We are grateful to the referees for helpful comments.     

CONTROLLING SERIOUS FINANCIAL CRIME: A JAMAICAN PERSPECTIVE

This paper examines the approach taken by Jamaica to control money laundering, terrorist financing and market abuse. With respect to money laundering and terrorist financing, the discussion involves a review of the statutory offences, the confiscation/forfeiture regime and the reporting obligations imposed on the financial sector. The analysis of market abuse focuses on both insider dealing and market manipulation.     

Parental Income and Continuing Education of Second Generation Immigrants in Sweden

Understanding the economic integration of minority ethnic communities requires an analysis of the educational process. This paper examines second‐generation immigrant youths’ educational attainments in comparison with those of similarly aged native Swedes. Binomial‐logit, grouped‐regression and multinomial‐logit models are applied to longitudinal data, 1991–1996. The results give evidence for socioeconomic determinants of post‐compulsory education and for parental influence on educational choices. Parental income affects second‐generation immigrants’ post‐compulsory education and Swedes’ choice of level of education. In general, the stronger the labour market positions of the parents, the higher the probability of the children continuing education. It is also found that the geographical origin of second‐generation immigrants matter, with youths of Asian origin having a higher probability of continuing their education. We suggest policy changes on different levels based on the evidence of the paper, as short‐run, long‐run and in general.     

Consumer credit and monetary policy in Malaysia

What is the impact of monetary policy on the Malaysian consumer? The study addresses this issue by empirically investigating the consequences of interest rate shocks on consumer credit in Malaysia. The study relies on the impulse response functions and the variance decomposition analysis based on the structural Vector Auto‐regression methodology. Apart from analysing the responses of aggregate consumer loans (ACL) to interest rate changes, further disaggregation is made in efforts to arrive at more detailed findings. In particular, the ACL data are categorized into loans for purchase of residential property, loans for personal uses, loans for credit cards, loans for purchase of consumer durables, loans for purchase of passenger cars and loans for purchase of securities. Through this disaggregation, the study shows the relative sensitivity of the various types of consumer loans to interest rate shocks.     

Consumption-based CAPM models: International evidence

We examine the performance of several types of the consumption-based CAPM (C-CAPM) models to explore if consumption factors matter for determining excess returns across 17 MSCI country indexes. While the classic world C-CAPM does exhibit some power in explaining cross-sectional variations of expected excess returns, the model seems to require an implausibly large coefficient of risk aversion. The more sophisticated models including the heterogeneous C-CAPM, the world surplus consumption and the habit-formation models provide more reasonable estimates and add substantial explanatory power for the variation in the cross section of excess stock returns. Our results suggest that country-specific consumption risk is not fully diversified thus implying that stock returns are related to idiosyncratic consumption risk.     

MODELLING THE ADAPTATION OF BUSINESS CONTINUITY PLANNING BY BUSINESSES USING NEURAL NETWORKS

Business continuity planning is an important element of business continuity management and is regarded as a fundamental step towards reducing the negative impacts of business disruptions caused by internal and external hazardous events. Many businesses are not prepared for such events, and very few studies have tried to examine and model the factors that contribute to business continuity management planning by various companies. In this paper we propose and develop a feed‐forward neural network for modelling businesses continuity planning by businesses based on a dataset of 283 businesses operating in the Greater Toronto Area in Ontario, Canada. The fully connected neural network applied was trained on 65 % of the dataset records using different subsets of input variables. In order to preserve the generalization ability of the trained network, 15 % of the dataset records were used as a validation set for early stopping during the network's training process. Prediction capability of the trained networks was evaluated on 20 % and never‐seen records of the dataset. The classification ability of the networks was then analysed using receiver operating characteristic and detection error trade‐off curves, where the results obtained were promising. The equal error rate for the best models was 12 %, which reflects a very good accuracy of these models in predicting the existence of business continuity planning for a generic company. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determinants of Stability in International Joint Ventures: Evidence from a Developing Country Context

Though the number of international joint ventures (IJVs) from developing countries has grown considerably, little has been reported on their operations and performance. The extant literature is based largely on IJVs from developed countries. To help fill this knowledge gap, this paper examines the determinants of stability from a study of 59 IJVs from developing and developed countries operating in a developing country. A multivariate model investigates the impact of a set firm, managerial and culture related factors on the stability of IJVs. Logistic regression analysis reveals that cooperation and physic distance between partners have significant impact on the stability of an IJV. There were no significant differences between stability rates for IJVs from developing and developed countries, but their determinants varied. The paper discusses the implications and limitations of the study, and identifies areas for further research.