Which projects are selected for an innovation subsidy? The Portuguese case

Portuguese Economic Journal - Several empirical studies have analyzed which firm characteristics influence government evaluators in the decision to select specific firms to participate in Research...     

Dynamic Tax Evasion with Habit Formation in Consumption*

We model the optimal intertemporal decision of an agent who chooses tax evasion and consumption, over an infinite lifetime horizon, where consumption is driven by habits. We find the following: (i) tax evaders reduce consumption in the early stages of habit accumulation and increase it over time; (ii) habit formation has a dampening effect on tax evasion; (iii) neglecting tax evasion can lead to habit overestimation; (iv) the effect of the tax rate on tax evasion is ambiguous; (v) heavy fines are more efficient than frequent controls in reducing tax evasion.     

Assessing students’ equality of opportunity in OECD countries: the role of national- and school-level policies

This article analyses the relationship between equality of opportunity and the characteristics of the educational system, jointly considering country- and school-level policies. Because school social environment represents a fundamental channel in shaping educational opportunities, we consider all policies, recorded in PISA 2012 dataset, that affect the sorting of students to schools. We show that including sorting policies enriches the explanation of the socio-economic gradient, that is, the association between students’ performances and parental background, with respect to previous studies including only country-level features. The negative impact of early tracking on equality of opportunity is overvalued without including other sorting policies, while grouping students’ within-school by ability increases the socio-economic gradient and a greater students’ heterogeneity in the school reduces the gradient.     

Assessing financial distress dependencies in OTC markets: a new approach using trade repositories data

In this paper, we study the relationships among financial market sub-segments as a way to identify potential financial distress through increased co-movements among them. To study how sub-markets are mutually co-dependent, we combine granular data on over-the-counter derivatives by trade repositories and the joint probability of distress (JPoD) approach introduced by the International Monetary Fund. We define an indicator that combines several distress drivers and observe that results on co-dependencies are similar to those that would be expected: similarities between financial and contractual terms seem to be responsible for stronger co-movements among sub-markets. However, high values for JPoD even in correspondence of quite dissimilar sub-markets suggest the presence of other drivers that should be investigated in future research. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first empirical study on systemic risk assessment based on micro-founded trade repositories’ data on interest rate swaps.     

Deep trade agreements and vertical FDI: The devil is in the details

Although pre‐1990s preferential trade agreements focused mostly on tariff liberalization, recent agreements increasingly contain deep provisions in diverse areas, such as intellectual property rights, investment and standards. At the same time, there has been a remarkable increase in the internationalization of production through foreign direct investment and outsourcing. This paper studies how deep trade agreements affect the international organization of production. Using new measures of the depth and content of preferential trade agreements and of vertical foreign direct investment, the analysis finds evidence that the depth of trade agreements is correlated with vertical foreign direct investment. Furthermore, this relationship is driven by the provisions that improve the contractibility of inputs provided by suppliers, such as standards, while provisions that increase the contractibility of headquarter services, such as intellectual property rights and investment protection, are generally negatively correlated with foreign investment. This finding is consistent with the so‐called “property rights” theory of the multinational firm according to which improving the contractibility of an input reduces the importance of giving incentives through ownership.     

The future of pensions in Europe

Unfunded state pension schemes are projected to become financially unsustainable. This is usually attributed to demographic trends. Yet trends in unemployment and in female labour force participation are quantitatively as important. Improvements in either or both might be sufficient to rescue existing state schemes, especially if combined with an end to the practice of allowing, even after retirement, the value of a pension to rise with national earnings rather than prices.
Attempts at piecemeal reform are important because nothing in economic theory suggests a switch to the alternative, fully funded pensions is desirable. Not only would such a transition be costly, and therefore politically difficult; it also neglects the fact that it makes sense to diversify the retirement portfolio, holding claims both on labour productivity and on capital assets. One can even view pensions as part of a more sophisticated system of intergenerational transfers through which workers finance their earlier education and subsequent retirement.     

The Chinese Enigma: Impacts of WTO Accession Upon Canadian and U.S. Exports and Imports

China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) is an important milestone in the integration of this nation into the world economy. Substantial reduction in trade barriers by China, one of the world's largest and most rapidly growing economies, is expected to have a significant impact, both on China itself and on the global economy. In assessing likely impacts on trade between China and North America of China joining the WTO, a priori one might expect new opportunities for China in labor intensive activities/products, while for the United States and for Canada one might expect added export market opportunities, as China grows, in activities/products that require land, resources and capital. However, the extent to which China and its trading partners will benefit from China's increasing integration into the global economy will largely depend on the internal changes in policy and infrastructure that may be adopted by China. China has embarked on a process of economic reform, but the speed and extent to which this continues to be pursued will affect this nation's ability to capitalize on its comparative advantages and to meet new challenges that are associated with the opportunities of access to a larger market. The difficulty of forecasting such internal changes means that China continues to be a major source of uncertainty in projecting world markets and trade flows. This uncertainty is particularly evident for trade in agricultural products     

“Social Freedom” in the Twenty-First Century: Rereading Polanyi

Karl Polanyi’s analysis of the genesis, crises, and institutional transformations of contemporary society is grounded on a theory of the basic features and dynamics of capitalism as a peculiar form of society. This article intends to develop this thesis on the basis of a reading of Polanyi’s The Great Transformation, with references to Polanyi’s preceding and later research. Polanyi’s theoretical and methodological achievements suggest a wide comparative outlook and offer a critique of economics, in addition to being deeply connected with his political philosophy. Polanyi’s approach seems to be nearer to the original institutional thought — from Karl Marx to Thorstein Veblen, from Max Weber to Adolf Löwe and Karl William Kapp — than to current neo-institutional tendencies in economics, sociology, and historiography. The hard problems society presently faces suggest the need to adhere to Polanyi’s radical point of view — that is, to a radical approach to Polanyi’s thought.