Parliamentary election cycles and the Turkish banking sector

This paper analyzes the effects of parliamentary election cycles on the Turkish banking system. Using annual bank-level data representing all banks in Turkey during 1963–2007, we present evidence of meaningful differences in the structure of bank assets, liabilities and financial performance across different stages of the parliamentary election cycle. However, we find that government-owned banks’ behavior does not meaningfully differ from that of either domestic and foreign-owned private-sector banks before, during or after elections. Our estimates also show that government-owned banks underperform both domestic and foreign-owned private-sector counterparts.     

Political patronage in Ukrainian banking1

This paper empirically investigates the link between political patronage and bank performance for Ukraine during 2003Q3–2005Q2. We find significant differences between politically affiliated and non‐affiliated banks. The data suggest that affiliated banks have significantly lower interest rate margins and increase their capitalization. Furthermore, we show that the level of activity of affiliated deputies in parliament has a positive (negative) impact on banks’ capitalization ratio (interest rate margin). Our findings imply, in line with the related literature, that political affiliation has important effects on banks’ behaviour.     

Shifting International Competitiveness: An Analysis of Market Share in Manufacturing Industries in Japan,Korea, Taiwan and the USA*

In the present study we conduct constant market share analysis of the imports and apparent consumption of the manufacturing industries of four major economies‐Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the USA. Additionally, the current study disaggregates import penetration in manufacturing, including sectors with relatively high technological requirements. Statistical tests of the significance of changes in import penetration in manufacturing industries are also conducted. The real growth of exports and apparent consumption in the two largest OECD markets is decomposed into: (i) the commodity composition effect; and (ii) the competitiveness effect. Finally, we examine the significance of trade policy for changes in import penetration in Japan and the USA.     

Residual demand measures of market power of Russian wheat exporters

Traditionally, the international wheat market has been considered a good example of a market with perfect competition. Yet, several articles provide evidence of imperfect competition and price discrimination in the wheat trade. However, these studies focused on traditional high‐quality wheat exporters such as Canada and the United States. In contrast, this article investigates whether Russian wheat exporters exercise market power in eight selected importing countries using the residual demand elasticity (RDE) model. The article makes two major contributions. First, it focuses on a nontraditional exporter, who exports mainly wheat of mediocre quality to low‐ and middle‐income countries. Second, the RDE model is estimated for the first time using a nonlinear estimator, the instrumental variable Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood estimator. This is important because the double logarithmic functional form can provide biased results in the presence of heteroskedasticity. The results indicate that Russian wheat exporters can exercise market power in only a few markets, while they are price takers in the majority of importing countries.     

Regional‐Level Analysis of Oligopsony Power in the Ukrainian Dairy Industry

Transition was characterized by massive structural changes in most economic sectors in Ukraine. This is especially true for the dairy sector. Several countervailing developments took place under transition that affected the dairy industry. Interregional trade became feasible, the importance of milk delivered by households increased significantly, and most dairies became investor‐owned companies. The latter point and the fact that the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine detected several price cartels in the industry lead us to offer that after transition, dairies were able to exercise oligopsony power toward dairy producers at the regional level. This paper estimates market structure models for raw milk in Ukraine using a translog production function for the processing sector at the national and regional level. The results suggest the existence of oligopsony power in three of 25 administrative regions in Ukraine, coupled with a potential deviation of procurement prices for raw milk from the value marginal product of raw milk ranging from 24.6% to 49.4%.     

The impact of the financial system’s structure on firms’ financial constraints

We estimate firms’ cash flow sensitivity of cash to empirically test how the financial system’s structure and level of development influence their financial constraints. For this purpose we merge Almeida et al.’s work, a path-breaking design for evaluating a firm’s financial constraints, with that of Levine, who paved the way for comparative analysis of financial systems around the world. We conjecture that a country’s financial system, both in terms of its structure and its level of development, should influence the cash flow sensitivity of cash of constrained firms but leave unconstrained firms unaffected. We test our hypothesis with a large international sample of 30,000 firm-years from 1989 to 2006. Our findings reveal that both the structure of the financial system and its level of development matter. Bank-based financial systems provide constrained firms with easier access to external financing.     

Uncertainty determinants of corporate liquidity

This paper investigates the link between the optimal level of non-financial firms' liquid assets and uncertainty. We develop a partial equilibrium model of precautionary demand for liquid assets showing that firms alter their liquidity ratio in response to changes in either macroeconomic or idiosyncratic uncertainty. We test this hypothesis using a panel of non-financial US firms drawn from the COMPUSTAT quarterly database covering the period 1993–2002. The results indicate that firms increase their liquidity ratios when macroeconomic uncertainty or idiosyncratic uncertainty increases.     

Are Russian Wheat Exporters Able to Price Discriminate? Empirical Evidence from the Last Decade

Significant changes have taken place in the world wheat market in the last decade. Russia, a former net wheat importer, has become a leading exporter with a world market share of 11.2% in 2009. This increasing importance and the discussion about the establishment of a grain‐OPEC consisting of Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Russia has raised the issue of pricing behaviour of Russian wheat exporters. Although there are several studies on the pricing behaviour of Canadian and US wheat exporters, there is none so far for Russian wheat exporters. This study provides a quantitative analysis of the pricing behaviour of Russian wheat exporters, explicitly taking account of the export tax imposed between 2007 and 2008. We employ a pricing‐to‐market (PTM) model on quarterly Russian wheat‐export data, covering the period from 2002 to 2010 and 25 export destinations. Our findings indicate that (i) Russian wheat exporters exercised PTM in only a few importing countries over the whole time period, and (ii) PTM behaviour was more pronounced in the aftermath of the export tax period (i.e. 2008–2010) than before.     

Portfolio credit-risk optimization

This paper evaluates several alternative formulations for minimizing the credit risk of a portfolio of financial contracts with different counterparties. Credit risk optimization is challenging because the portfolio loss distribution is typically unavailable in closed form. This makes it difficult to accurately compute Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) at the extreme quantiles that are of practical interest to financial institutions. Our formulations all exploit the conditional independence of counterparties under a structural credit risk model. We consider various approximations to the conditional portfolio loss distribution and formulate VaR and ES minimization problems for each case. We use two realistic credit portfolios to assess the in- and out-of-sample performance for the resulting VaR- and ES-optimized portfolios, as well as for those which we obtain by minimizing the variance or the second moment of the portfolio losses. We find that a Normal approximation to the conditional loss distribution performs best from a practical standpoint.