Agriculture and small towns in Africa

Africa is urbanizing rapidly. Yet most dual economy models focus on the sectoral rather than spatial dimensions of development. This article adopts a “dual–dual” approach to measuring rural/urban and farm/nonfarm linkages. We develop an economy‐wide model of Ethiopia that distinguishes between cities, towns, and rural areas. The model captures detailed sectoral and regional linkages, internal migration flows, and externalities from urban agglomeration. We find larger linkages between agricultural production and small towns and show that redirecting urban growth toward towns rather than cities leads to broader‐based economic growth and poverty reduction. In contrast, industry and services, particularly within cities, are far less effective in reaching rural areas and the poor. Africa's current urbanization pattern—toward major cities rather than towns—will weaken national growth–poverty linkages. Urbanization that takes advantage of the synergistic relationship between agriculture and small towns has the potential to result in a more inclusive growth trajectory.     

Who determines the trade-offs between agricultural production and environmental quality? An evolutionary perspective from rural eastern China

We explore the evolutionary nature of interactions between government policy, farm decision-making and ecosystem services in Shucheng County, Anhui Province, 1950–2015. Analyses of ecological, social and economic trends are complemented by interviews with local farmers. Since the Household Responsibility System started in 1980, there has been a trade-off between rising levels of provisioning services and falling levels of regulating services with evidence that critical thresholds have been passed for water quality. Using a Framework for Ecosystem Service Provision, we argue that farmers have acted only as ecosystem service providers and have not influenced the policies that have brought about the trade-offs. Over the period, ecological degradation is best described as an example of ‘creeping normalcy’ where cumulative conventional actions by individual farmers produce unsustainable losses in regulating services. The Chinese government should act to balance the various ecosystem services through valuation and national policy. In this respect, there is a need for agencies that can provide place-based advice to farmers that will allow them to maintain productivity levels while pursuing restorative actions. Even with new policies, the draw of urban employment, high production costs and an ageing population threaten the viability of farming in these marginal agricultural areas.     

Uncertainty, power and trust

This paper suggests that personal trust is best understood as a discursively constructed social relation that arises when interaction between people is governed by the norm of reciprocity (according to which one good turn deserves another and that people should treat others as they themselves would like to be treated). It is argued that trust enables people to deal with their ignorance of the future and so act in a purposeful, goal-driven fashion even in the face of radical uncertainty. However, where there are imbalances of access to economic and cultural resources and to positions of authority, there may arise an imbalance of reciprocity, so that what appear to be relations of genuine trust may in fact be no more than a façade of trust that conceals a relationship of domination.     

A Note on Perry's Reconsideration of Macroeconomic Evidence from New Zealand

Perry in this journal draws on two new sources to challenge claims by Dalziel (2002) and Peetz (2005) about relatively weak labour productivity growth in New Zealand after the introduction of its Employment Contracts Act (ECA) in 1991. While new data raise further research questions, they do not overturn our original conclusions. Whether the ECA contributed to higher labour input growth compared with Australia, it failed to improve labour productivity growth.     

Serial and spatial error correlation

This paper demonstrates that jointly modeling serial and spatial error correlation results in a trade-off between the serial and spatial autocorrelation coefficients. Ignoring this trade-off causes inefficiency and may lead to nonstationarity.     

Running the Numbers on Lotteries and the Poor: An Empirical Analysis of Transfer Payment Distribution and Subsequent Lottery Sales

State lottery revenues are shown to increase during the week transfer payments are distributed. The timing of the increase in lottery purchases suggests a portion of the transfer payments is used to purchase lottery tickets. In addition to providing information on the timing of lottery purchases, this study finds sales of Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets increase during the period, while sales of Pick 5 and Pick 6 games do not, suggesting a general preference for the relatively higher probability, smaller jackpot games for the group.

Fundamentals of service science

Service systems are value-co-creation configurations of people, technology, value propositionsconnecting internal and external service systems, and shared information (e.g., language, laws, measures, and methods). Service science is the study of service systems, aiming to create a basis for systematicservice innovation. Service science combines organization and human understanding with business andtechnological understanding to categorize and explain the many types of service systems that exist as wellas how service systems interact and evolve to co-create value. The goal is to apply scientific understandingto advance our ability to design, improve, and scale service systems. To make progress, we think servicedominantlogic provides just the right perspective, vocabulary, and assumptions on which to build a theory ofservice systems, their configurations, and their modes of interaction. Simply put, service-dominant logicmay be the philosophical foundation of service science, and the service system may be its basic theoreticalconstruct.

Sportsbook pricing and the behavioral biases of bettors in the NHL

The betting market for the NHL is investigated using actual betting percentages on favorites and underdogs from real sportsbooks. Sportsbooks do not appear to attempt to price to balance the book as betting percentages are not proportional to set odds. As in the NFL and NBA, bettors are shown to have a strong preference for favorites and road favorites in particular. Simple strategies of betting against significant imbalances toward the favorite are shown to generate positive returns. Although not pricing to balance the book, sportsbooks do not appear to price to exploit known bettor biases in all cases. Clear bettor behavioral biases for road favorites are not priced into the odds as the prices set in these cases appear to be a forecast of game outcomes. Pricing as a forecast may ensure long-run viability for the sportsbook as it discourages entry into this market by informed traders and still allows the sportsbook to capture its commission on losing bets over time.