Dynamics of the federal funds target rate: a nonstationary discrete choice approach

We apply a discrete choice approach to model the empirical behaviour of the Federal Reserve in changing the federal funds target rate, the benchmark of short‐term market interest rates in the US. Our methods allow the explanatory variables to be nonstationary as well as stationary. This feature is particularly useful in the present application as many economic fundamentals that are monitored by the Fed and are believed to affect decisions to adjust interest rate targets display some nonstationarity over time. The chosen model successfully predicts the majority of the target rate changes during the time period considered (1994–2001) and helps to explain strings of similar intervention decisions by the Fed. Based on the model‐implied optimal interest rate, our findings suggest that there is a lag in the Fed's reaction to economic shocks during this period. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The quality of cooking oil used in informal food processing in Malawi: a preliminary study

A survey was conducted in Lilongwe city urban markets in Malawi, to assess the quality of cooking oil used for frying potato chips. Purposive sampling was performed to come up with respondents who were using vegetable oils. A stratified random sampling was used to select the 32 informal food processors who were interviewed using a structured questionnaire. Oil samples were collected from the most commonly used brand of oil. Fifteen respondents were selected and these were divided into three categories of five: those who were not reusing the oil, those who were reusing the oil and those who were preparing potato chips and chicken in the same oil, for chemical analysis. The preliminary results showed that while the majority (59.4%) of the informal food processors discarded the oil after 1 day, 3.1% discarded it after 4 days and another 12.5% after 3 days. A larger proportion of the respondents (40.6%) used the leftover oils at home, 37.5% kept it in oil bottles, 3.1% kept it in plastic papers for reuse the following day. Also, most respondents (57%) indicated dark colour as the sign of oil deterioration, 29% discarded the oil after noticing foam formation while 8.2% and 6.1% said they discarded the oil after noticing a bad smell and food absorbing the oils respectively. A physical observation of the various oils showed that for most of the respondents (34%), the oils were dark brown in colour, in 22%, the oils were slightly dark brown and 16%, the oils were brown. Foam formation was noticed in 13% of the respondents. It was also noted that 91% of the respondents had not been trained or briefed of food quality and safety issues. A chemical analysis of the oils showed high values of free fatty acids (range, 0.84–1.4112 compared with 0.42 in the fresh oil) and peroxide values (range 14.7–16.6 compared with 9.0 in the fresh oil). It may be concluded that the oils being used by the informal food processors in Malawi are of poor quality and so the foods cooked in them may be a health hazard to the consumers and the processors themselves. Although this work in ongoing, it may be recommended at the outset that the health department of the city assemblies should inspect these oils for the good health of the consumers.     

Real Estate Valuation Models: Lender and Equity Investor Criteria

The use of valuation models that focus on lender criteria has been growing in the appraisal field. In the rush to build lender criteria into real estate valuation models, equity investor criteria, expectations, and requirements occasionally have been ignored. The specific criteria considered in this paper are the loan-to-value ratio and the debt coverage ratio for lenders and the equity dividend rate for equity investors. Each of these three criteria may be a binding constraint on value.
Graphical analysis provides a framework within which major real estate valuation models (i.e., Ellwood, McLaughlin, Gettel, Lusht-Zerbst, and Steele) are compared. A new valuation model (i.e., the Cannaday-Colwell model) is developed which utilizes the equity dividend rate.
The three definitional models (i.e., McLaughlin, Gettel, and Steele) are found to be relevant only by mere coincidence. Each of these models simultaneously considers two of the three key criteria, completely eliminating the possibility of consideration of anything else; i.e., the models become tautological.
It is shown that the discounted cash flow based models (i.e., Ellwood, Lusht-Zerbst, and Cannaday-Colwell) each tell one-third of the story. One of these models will be relevant depending upon whether the binding constraint is the maximum loan-to-value ratio, the minimum debt coverage ratio, or the minimum equity dividend rate. The relevant model is the one that yields the lowest value estimate of the three.     

Price uncertainty and the effect of capital costs in a point in-point out inventory investment

This paper analyzes a point in-point out inventory investment under price uncertainty. The optimal quantity is determined by maximizing the expected value of the investor's risk preference function, which is a function of profit. Using an exponential risk preference function, the adjustment in the optimal quantity stemming from a change in the interest rate is investigated. The main conclusion is that the sign of the adjustment depends both on how profit is expressed and on the type of price distribution applied. Contrary to what is assumed in conventional managerial control practices, a rise in the interest rate might lead to an increase in the optimal quantity when present value serves as a measure of profit.     

Rural Population Growth, 1950–1990: The Roles of Human Capital, Industry Structure, and Government Policy

Human capital raises rural incomes, but this effect is swamped by higher returns to human capital in urban markets. This leads to "brain drain" from rural areas. Populations grow more rapidly in rural counties that have a diversified employment base. Farm population grows faster (or declines more slowly) in counties with relatively high farm income, and nonfarm populations grow faster in counties with relatively high nonfarm income. However, higher farm incomes lead to slower nonfarm population growth and vice versa. Rural county government services financed by local taxes or debt have neutral or negative effects on population growth.     

Managerial Equity Ownership and the Demand for Outside Directors

This paper examines the linkage between the use of outside directors and managerial ownership. We conjecture there are two linkages: the standard incentive‐alignment demand for monitoring when managers own little stock and an entrenchment‐amelioration demand when managerial stock ownership is high. As a consequence, we predict the association between managerial ownership and board composition will be nonlinear (U‐shaped if the entrenchment effect is sufficiently pronounced). Using UK data, we find that both quadratic and logarithmic models outperform the simple linear relationship assumed in prior research and that the substitution between managerial ownership and board composition is stronger than hitherto supposed.     

Estimating the Size of a Criminal Population from Police Records Using the Truncated Poisson Regression Model

The truncated Poisson regression model is used to arrive at point and interval estimates of the size of two offender populations, i.e. drunk drivers and persons who illegally possess firearms. The dependent capture–recapture variables are constructed from Dutch police records and are counts of individual arrests for both violations. The population size estimates are derived assuming that each count is a realization of a Poisson distribution, and that the Poisson parameters are related to covariates through the truncated Poisson regression model. These assumptions are discussed in detail, and the tenability of the second assumption is assessed by evaluating the marginal residuals and performing tests on overdispersion. For the firearms example, the second assumption seems to hold well, but for the drunk drivers example there is some overdispersion. It is concluded that the method is useful, provided it is used with care.     

Charity Technology Trust: a case study

Charity Technology Trust (CTT) is one of a new breed of philanthropic initiatives aimed at helping UK charities become more efficient by better use of technology. Its founder believes that charities are ideally placed to benefit from the reduced costs and shared benefits of jointly developed strategies and fundraising, communications and data management tools. CTT was formed to catalyse a move in this direction from the major UK fundraising charities and is supported by the personal philanthropic contributions of its trustees—a group of successful businessmen. The challenge for such a new organisation with a new idea is considerable, but after 18 months CTT is working with 27 of the top 100 UK charities on projects from online raffles through e‐mail communications to IT strategy. Copyright © 2003 Henry Stewart Publications