Designing a linear pension scheme with forced savings and wage heterogeneity

This paper studies the optimal linear pension scheme when society consists of rational and myopic individuals. Myopic individuals have, ex ante, a strong preference for the present even though, ex post, they would regret not to have saved enough. While rational and myopic persons share the same ex post intertemporal preferences, only the rational agents make their savings and labor supply decisions according to these preferences. Individuals are also distinguished by their productivity. The social objective is “paternalistic”: the utilitarian welfare function depends on ex post utilities. We examine how the presence of myopic individuals affects both the size of the pension system and the degree of redistribution it operates, with and without liquidity constraints. The relationship between proportion of myopic individuals and characteristics of the pension system turns out to be much more complex than one would have conjectured. Neither the impact on the level of pensions nor the effect on their redistributive degree is unambiguous. Nevertheless, we show that under some plausible assumptions adding myopic individuals increases the level of pension benefits and leads to a shift from a flat or even targeted scheme to a partially contributory one. However, we also provide an example where the degree of redistribution is not a monotonic function of the proportion of myopic individuals.      

Fiscal Consolidation and the Public Sector Balance Sheet in South Africa

Between 1994 and 2008 the South African government reduced its debt/GDP ratio from almost 50% to 27%. Unfortunately this reduction was accompanied by a significant decrease in government's fixed capital/GDP ratio from 90% to 55% – fiscal sustainability might have been restored, but government's balance sheet did not improve. A similar story can be told for State Owned Enterprises. Since the Great Recession the fiscal situation worsened markedly – the public debt ratio again approaches 50%. To restore fiscal sustainability this article suggests that the government faces two options: (1) to create room for future countercyclical policy, the government must cut current expenditure and reduce the public debt/GDP ratio to its pre‐crisis level, or (2) substitute much‐needed infrastructure capital expenditure for current expenditure while stabilising the debt/GDP ratio at its post‐crisis level. Given that the much lower fixed capital/GDP ratio inhibits economic growth, the latter option might be more sensible.     

A robust house price index using sparse and frugal data

In this article, we describe a house price index algorithm which requires only sparse and frugal data, namely house location, date of sale and sale price, as input data. We aim to show that our algorithm is as effective for predicting price changes as more complex models which require detailed or extensive data. Although various methods are employed for determining house price indexes, such as hedonic regression, mix-adjusted median or repeat sales, there is no consensus on how to determine the robustness of an index, and hence no agreement on which method is the best to use. We formalise an objective criterion for what a house price index should achieve, namely consistency between time periods. Using this criterion, we investigate whether it is possible to achieve strong robustness using frugal data covering only 66 months of transactions on the Irish property market. We develop a simple multi-stage algorithm and show that it is more robust than the complex hedonic regression model currently employed by the Irish Central Statistics Office.     

Optimal currency area theory and monetary integration in the Andean and Caribbean regions

In this article, the author analyses the prospects for monetary integration in the Andean and Caribbean regions and stresses the regional specificities that should be taken into account. He points to the necessity to combine economic, political economy and institutional approaches to assess scenarios for monetary integration. The author also argues that the application of optimum currency area theory to regions with specific characteristics (in many respects different from the EU) might produce positive feed‐back effects for the development of OCA theory itself, highlighting specific aspects and implications of the same theory and stimulating theoretical research.     

Constitutional Rules of Exclusion in Jurisdiction Formation

The rules under which jurisdictions (nations, provinces) can deny immigration or expel residents are generally governed by a constitution, but there do not exist either positive or normative analyses to suggest what types of exclusion rules are best. We stylize this problem by suggesting four constitutional rules of admission: free mobility, admission by majority vote, admission by unanimous consent, admission by a demand threshold for public goods. In a simple model we characterize the equilibria that result from these rules, and provide a positive theory for which constitutional rules will be chosen.     

Latin American multinationals: A historical and theoretical approach*

Among the so‐called multinationals from the South, Latin American multinationals are outstanding for being pioneers. Their history goes even back to the end of the 19th century. In this article, we sketch a brief history of Latin American multinationals, but we concentrate on their development and growing importance since the 1980s within the context of economic reforms and globalization. We then apply a theoretical and typological perspective in order to characterize these multinational companies and to identify the elements that will condition their future behavior and development