Influence Allocation Methods in Group Decision Support Systems

Influence allocation processes are voting and opinion aggregating methods that allow members to distribute some or all of their decision making influence to others in the group in order to exploit not only the group's knowledge of the alternatives, but its knowledge of itself. Only with the common use of group decision support systems (GDSS) has their use become practical. In this paper we reconsider SPAN, an influence allocation process introduced by MacKinnon (1966a). Experimental comparison shows SPAN to be significantly better at selecting a correct option from a set of options than two common voting methods. An alternative influence allocation process that we call RCON (Rational Consensus), is based on a weighting method proposed by DeGroot (1974) and has been explicated as a normative standard for combining opinion by Lehrer and Wagner (1981). The judgmental inputs to SPAN would appear to be logically related to those for RCON. Submitting the SPAN inputs from the experiment, transformed in this logical way, to the RCON process results in somewhat better performance than with SPAN. However, evidence indicated that the two methods are conceptually and psychologically sufficiently different that an experimental comparison is needed between them.     

Determinants and impacts of environmental performance in SMEs

The paper analyzes empirical evidence from 368 environmentally responsive small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) operating in four industries. The results demonstrate that firms' environmental performance cannot be viewed as a one-dimensional concept and that determinants of firms' environmental performance depend on the dimension retained. The impacts of firms' environmental performance on their innovativeness and competitiveness vary according to the industry within which they operate. However, impacts on product and process innovations as well as on managerial innovations are positive and significant in all four industries.     

Alternative Demand for University Outreach Services from Georgia's Golf Industry

Recent technological advancements have influenced farmers' growing demand for private information suppliers, a service traditionally monopolized by public outreach programs of land grant educational institutions. This waning appeal for university extension services creates pressure for these institutions to explore other market segments to broaden their audience coverage. This study demonstrates a potential market niche in Georgia's golf industry for university outreach services. Binomial logistic regression results indicate that significant demand ( a ) is negatively influenced by golf facility size; ( b ) is directly related to the level of industry experience of the golf superintendents; and ( c ) could come from facilities that require assistance in growth-, pest-, and employment-related concerns.     

On the Consequences of Behavioral Adaptations in the Cost–Benefit Analysis of Road Safety Measures

It is sometimes argued that road safety measures or automobile safety standards fail to save lives because safer highways or safer cars induce more dangerous driving. A similar but less extreme view is that ignoring the behavioral adaptation of drivers would bias the cost–benefit analysis of a traffic safety measure. This article derives cost–benefit rules for automobile safety regulation when drivers may adapt their risk‐taking behavior in response to changes in the quality of the road network. The focus is on the financial externalities induced by accidents because of the insurance system as well as on the consequences of drivers' risk aversion. We establish that road safety measures are Pareto improving if their monetary cost is lower than the difference between their (adjusted for risk aversion) direct welfare gain with unchanged behavior and the induced variation in insured losses due to drivers' behavioral adaptation. The article also shows how this rule can be extended to take other accident external costs into account.     

Hungary's entry into the euro area: Lessons for prospective members from a monetary policy perspective

This paper evaluates the conduct of monetary policy in Hungary using standard Taylor rules as well as extended rules that incorporate real exchange rate effects. Moreover, we explicitly consider the impact of future euro area entry by estimating instrument rules that permit an influence from Maastricht Treaty inflation requirements via the estimation of Markov switching models as well as by estimating a differential rule vis-à-vis the existing euro area. Lastly, the paper also considers the impact on policy rules from the large data revision that affects real exchange rate and output estimates. I find that interest rate setting behavior in Hungary does not resemble that of the euro area. Also, counterfactual experiments reveal that the potential macroeconomic costs of entry into the euro area sooner rather than later may be lower than if membership in the single currency area is delayed beyond 2008.     

Introduction: Input–Output Analysis of Interindustry R&D Spillovers

As an introduction to this special issue on intersectoral R&D spillovers, I shall first explain what these spillovers are and how economists try to estimate them. I shall then describe the seven papers selected for this issue from the expanding literature on R&D spillovers, summarize their major results and suggest further avenues of research in this area.     

Market Orientation,Generative Learning,Innovation Strategy and Business Performance Inter‐Relationships in Bioscience Firms

We propose conceptual arguments to establish relationships between market orientation and generative learning and their respective impact on exploitative innovation strategy and explorative innovation strategy. We then consider the ambidextrous association between both forms of innovation strategy and business performance. This model is subject to an empirical test using data generated from 160 bioscience firms. Using structural equation modelling, two mutually exclusive paths are specified where market orientation leads to exploitative innovation strategy, while generative learning leads to explorative innovation strategy. We then find that the ambidexterity exhibited by firms in the form of exploitative innovation strategy and explorative innovation strategy significantly explains improvements in firms’ business performance. Discussion is given to these findings and managerial implications are presented along with avenues for further research.     

Explaining asset pricing puzzles associated with the 1987 market crash

The 1987 market crash was associated with a dramatic and permanent steepening of the implied volatility curve for equity index options, despite minimal changes in aggregate consumption. We explain these events within a general equilibrium framework in which expected endowment growth and economic uncertainty are subject to rare jumps. The arrival of a jump triggers the updating of agents' beliefs about the likelihood of future jumps, which produces a market crash and a permanent shift in option prices. Consumption and dividends remain smooth, and the model is consistent with salient features of individual stock options, equity returns, and interest rates.     

Allocative vs. technical spectrum efficiency

Achieving allocative and technically efficient spectrum management is a key aspect of deregulatory reforms in several OECD countries. However, reform legislation offers few clues as to how these objectives should rank when they conflict with one another. An ‘innocent’ prior acquisition of service-neutral spectrum at an efficiently run auction may prove allocative efficient but fail to be technically efficient if the spectrum is left fallow in the short term. Accountability for the productive usage of a public resource and pressures from short-term political cycles may induce regulators to mandate some minimal level of activity. Two plausible regulatory responses are considered: use it or lose it clauses and spectrum trading incentives. The former favours technical efficiency whilst the latter promotes allocative efficiency. The argument is formalised in a simple economic model buttressing the roles of uncertainty and transaction costs to assert the primacy of allocative efficiency over technical efficiency.