The role of small bettors in price formation in betting exchanges

ABSTRACT

The presence of small bettors in betting exchanges generates mispricing, which can lead to exploitation by informed traders or result in permanent price deviations. This paper shows that mispricing from this source is also dependent upon variables of established relevance such as tournament round, the level of attention to the event, the volume of the betting, and bet type, further confirming these findings by means of cumulative accuracy profile (CAP) curves. It also offers evidence of the relevant role played by the type of device used to place the bet, whereby higher mispricing is observed in live bets placed via a mobile device, which appears to be associated with impulsive betting. This last finding could have practical implications for the regulation of the use of mobile devices to access gambling platforms.     

The business plan as a project: an evaluation of its predictive capability for business success

Although there is extensive research aimed at identifying the main success factors for new ventures, efforts directed at evaluating the real effect of the existence and quality of a business plan on a firm's survival chances have been limited. This study attempts to fill this gap by analyzing to what extent the quality of a business plan, measured according to its economic, financial and organizational viability, constitutes a good predictor of business survival; and how other variables related to the characteristics of the entrepreneur and the business can affect the predictive capability of the model under consideration. Hypotheses are tested using data collected from 2142 service firms. The results show that none of the three variables that evaluate business plan quality (economic, financial and organizational viability) seems to have a determining influence on survival chances. Adding essential characteristics related to the entrepreneur and the business (education and training, experience, kind of motivation, number of employees and start-up capital) does little to increase the model's predictive capabilities.     

Automated Certification for Compliant Cloud-based Business Processes

A key problem in the deployment of large-scale, reliable cloud computing concerns the difficulty to certify the compliance of business processes operating in the cloud. Standard audit procedures such as SAS-70 and SAS-117 are hard to conduct for cloud-based processes. The paper proposes a novel approach to certify the compliance of business processes with regulatory requirements. The approach translates process models into their corresponding Petri net representations and checks them against requirements also expressed in this formalism. Being based on Petri nets, the approach provides well-founded evidence on adherence and, in case of noncompliance, indicates the possible vulnerabilities.     

Pricing equity default swaps under the jump-to-default extended CEV model

Equity default swaps (EDS) are hybrid credit-equity products that provide a bridge from credit default swaps (CDS) to equity derivatives with barriers. This paper develops an analytical solution to the EDS pricing problem under the jump-to-default extended constant elasticity of variance model (JDCEV) of Carr and Linetsky. Mathematically, we obtain an analytical solution to the first passage time problem for the JDCEV diffusion process with killing. In particular, we obtain analytical results for the present values of the protection payoff at the triggering event, periodic premium payments up to the triggering event, and the interest accrued from the previous periodic premium payment up to the triggering event, and we determine arbitrage-free equity default swap rates and compare them with CDS rates. Generally, the EDS rate is strictly greater than the corresponding CDS rate. However, when the triggering barrier is set to be a low percentage of the initial stock price and the volatility of the underlying firm’s stock price is moderate, the EDS and CDS rates are quite close. Given the current movement to list CDS contracts on organized derivatives exchanges to alleviate the problems with the counterparty risk and the opacity of over-the-counter CDS trading, we argue that EDS contracts with low triggering barriers may prove to be an interesting alternative to CDS contracts, offering some advantages due to the unambiguity, and transparency of the triggering event based on the observable stock price.     

Effects of dissatisfaction in tourist services: The role of anger and regret

Dissatisfied customers due to a service failure probably will switch the provider, will complain and/or will spread negative word-of-mouth. However, to what extent some specific emotions triggered by dissatisfaction can mediate between the latter and the previous mentioned behaviours? A sample of 359 users of restaurants and 308 users of hotel services has shown that, whereas anger has a significant influence on the three behaviours under study, regret only affects switching and negative word-of-mouth. Furthermore, slight differences between hotels and restaurants have been found because, in the case of restaurants, anger is not an antecedent of switching whereas regret has an inverse effect on complaining.     

Functional dependence and productive dependence of SMEs

This article analyzes the quality of business structure from a macroeconomic perspective in the regional context. In addition to “traditional” variables such as innovation, internationalization, or entrepreneurial collaboration, new variables have been introduced: functional dependence and productive dependence. Two different economic territories have been chosen within the Spanish economy: the province of Barcelona (high relative income per capita) and the province of Seville (low relative income per capita). We find it is possible to distinguish two types of firms: a) “product-maker” firms (mainly located in advanced areas) and b) “market-maker” firms (mainly located in less developed areas).      

Export Growth and Economic Development in Colonial British America

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between tobacco and the rest of the economy in the colonial Chesapeake to test the staple theory version of the export-led growth hypothesis. The paper adopts a multivariate time-series approach which accommodates the presence of cointegration and contemporaneous correlations among innovations. The empirical evidence strongly supports the staple theory. British demand for tobacco is statistically exogenous and found to induce cyclical fluctuations in the colonial price of tobacco as well as temporary over- or underproduction, as measured by a long-term cointegration relationship between the British demand for tobacco and the colonial price of land.     

Market potential and city growth: Spain 1860–1960

In this paper, we employ parametric and nonparametric techniques to analyse the effect of market potential on the structure and growth of Spanish cities during the period 1860–1960. Even though a few attempts have been made to analyse whether market potential might influence urban structures, this period is especially interesting because it is characterised by advances in the economic integration of the national market together with an intense process of industrialisation. By using an elaborated measure of market potential at the city level, our results show a positive influence of this market potential on city growth, although this influence is heterogeneous over time. Only changes in the market potential from 1900 have a significant effect on population growth.     

The Abatement Market A Proposal for Environmental Cooperation among Asymmetric Countries

We present a model of interaction among technologically asymmetriccountries whose use of an open-access environmental resource generatesmutual externalities. We show that countries can improve bothenvironmental quality and their individual welfare levels by buying/sellingpollution abatement. This market mechanism, which reduces incentive forfree-riding, is more effective the larger the technological gap betweencountries.     

Determinants of Hotels and Restaurants entrepreneurship: A study using GEM data

The objective of this work is to assess the influence of certain factors on the likelihood of being a Hotels and Restaurants (H&R) entrepreneur. The factors evaluated are demographic and economic variables, variables related to perceptions of the environment and personal traits, and variables measuring the individual's intellectual and social capital. The work uses logistic regression techniques to analyze a sample of 33,711 individuals in the countries participating in the GEM project in 2008. The findings show that age, gender, income, perception of opportunities, fear of failure, entrepreneurial ability, knowing other entrepreneurs and being a business angel are explanatory factors of the probability of being an H&R entrepreneur.