EQUITY VALUATION EFFECTS OF WARRANT-DEBT FINANCING

Stock price reactions to warrant-debt unit financing announcements are examined and a significant two-day average abnormal return of ?1.32 percent is found. The negative average abnormal return is similar to that observed for convertible debt financing announcements in previous research. Warrant-debt financing decisions result in large increases in capitalization; on average, issuers' long-term debt increases by 84 percent, and common shares outstanding increase by 18 percent assuming full exercise of the warrants.     

WILL THE “TRUE” LABOR SHARE STAND UP? AN APPLIED SURVEY ON LABOR SHARE MEASURES

Labor's share of income is a key variable in economics. It plays a leading role in analysis of (in)equality, globalization, technical change, growth theories, etc. Notwithstanding this broad application, there are many different definitions of the labor share. Understanding and synthesizing those differences is the purpose of this applied survey. Empirical measures may vary reflecting the allocation of income components that cannot be directly ascribed to capital or labor. We examine the alternative assumptions made in the literature in this regard and quantify and motivate the resulting discrepancies. Focusing (mostly) on US data, we show that different measures can have very distinct properties in terms of the observed stochastic trends, shares of short‐, medium‐, and long‐run variation and volatilities, persistence and mean‐reversion properties, and susceptibility to structural breaks. For instance, while “short‐run” properties of the surveyed labor share measures are relatively consistent across all definitions (and countercyclical), their “medium‐” and “long‐run” trends may diverge substantially (and are procyclical). To substantiate our analysis, we document the implications of discrepancies in the empirical labor share definition for growth accounting, analyzing the effect of technology shocks, and for estimating inflation dynamics.     

Client Perceptions of Reported Outcomes of Group Model Building in the New Zealand Public Sector

System dynamics modellers sometimes involve decision-makers in the modelling process, a method known as “group model building”. Group model building has been associated with a number of different outcomes, and it is not clear which of these outcomes are important to clients. The public sector is a significant audience for group model building interventions; this paper reports on what outcomes are most valued by potential clients in the New Zealand public sector. Senior management within four government agencies identified the employees who were most likely to commission and conduct group decision processes. These individuals participated in detailed semi-structured interviews, and completed a written questionnaire, exploring the contexts in which group model building may be useful and the outcomes sought in each situation. The results suggest that, even within the public sector, the importance of a particular outcome will depend upon context. However, public servants generally appear to value trust and agreement over policy quality when conducting group-decision processes. Knowledge of the outcomes sought by potential clients helps guide the outcomes measured by researchers, and helps practitioners to tailor communication messages to clients.     

Hierarchies and Groups in DEA

Conventional applications of data envelopment analysis (DEA) presume the existence of a set of similar decision making units, wherein each unit is evaluated relative to other members of the set. Often, however, the DMUs fall naturally into groupings, giving rise first to the problem of how to view the groups themselves as DMUs, and second to the issue of how to deal with several different ratings for any given DMU when groupings can be formed in different ways. In the present paper we introduce the concept of hierarchical DEA, where efficiency can be viewed at various levels. We provide a means for adjusting the ratings of DMUs at one level to account for the ratings received by the groups (into which these DMUs fall) at a higher level. We also develop models for aggregating different ratings for a DMU arising from different possible groupings. An application of these models to a set of power plants is given.     

Short-term Perturbations and Tourism Effects: The Case of SARS in China

The 2003 SARS epidemic created a significant negative impact on tourism development in China. This paper reviews the effects on tourism of different short-term crises, analyses the effects of SARS and explores the possibility of tourism businesses being buffered from such short-term crisis and the possible new motivations derived from the crisis. Tourism’s lack of resistance but high resilience to short term crises provides tourism and regional planning challenges. These characteristics suggest diversification and partnerships can minimise community vulnerability to crises and rapid economic recovery is possible based on tourism’s resilient nature.     

Probability models and robust policy rules

We consider Sims's (2008) argument that robust policy making requires that policy models be treated as “probability models”. In a welfare-based setting, we estimate by Bayesian methods a number of variants of a New Keynesian macroeconomic model and use both the model odds and posterior densities to design robust interest rate rules consisting of an inflation-forecast-based rule and a wage-targeting one. Each are shown to have distinct robustness qualities and distinct implications for the probability-models approach. To ensure feasible policy, we further impose that rules are stable, determinate and lower-bound compatible. Our results have important implications for the design, evaluation and analysis of the probability models approach to robust monetary policy making.     

A new perspective on the Gold Standard: Inflation as a population phenomenon

The purpose of this paper is to contribute a new model of the Gold Standard, focusing on the interaction between resource scarcity and demographics. In a dynamic micro-founded model we find that: i) prices and equilibrium gold holdings increase with population (a scale effect), but decrease with the population growth rate; ii) that the Gold Standard implies deflation unless extraction resources outstrip population growth; and iii) there is no optimal quantity of money. The predictions of the model are examined using a structural VAR. Our results also shed light on debates about the viability of a return to the Gold Standard, and, more generally, on the interaction between policy variables and scarce resources.