Owner liability and financial reporting information as predictors of firm default in bank loans

We examine the effects of owner liability and non-accounting and financial accounting information on the probability of default as defined in Basel II in bank loan contracted by non listed firms. We model default as a function of owner liability and accounting and non-accounting information of non-listed firms, drawing on 43,117 annual accounts of 16,029 firms over a 7-year period. Our estimations based on mixed logistic regressions with random parameters show that the predicted default probability of full-liability firms is 0.72 times that of limited liability firms. The likelihood ratio test for omitted variables confirms the additional predictive ability of liability status over and above other non-accounting and financial accounting information. A Heckman self-selection model does not indicate sampling bias. The particular definition of default used in the study enables the findings to be generalizable across other institutional contexts.     

Moral economics

An adequate normative economics – one that is consistent with recent developments in our discipline (and in philosophy and psychology) and that resonates with widely held moral intuitions – will have to address the following challenges. First, utility cannot be both the basis of our predictions of economic behaviour and the evaluation of the outcomes of this behaviour. Second, we need to conceive of individual well-being and other desiderata in ways that are interpersonally comparable and that go beyond efficiency and fairness. Third, the representation of the economy as a ‘morality-free zone’ (requiring that contracts, including employment contracts, are complete) must give way to a recognition of the unaccountable exercise of power by private actors, even in a perfectly competitive equilibrium, and the way that this may violate democratic principles and limit the freedom and compromise the dignity of other actors. Fourth, the commitment to ‘liberal neutrality’ (thereby sidestepping the evaluation of preferences) and the related assumption of ‘unrestricted preferences’ in mechanism design and public policy must be abandoned, making room for a concern about the nature of our preferences and the ways that institutions shape our values.     

Very fast money: High-frequency trading on the NASDAQ

This paper provides evidence regarding high-frequency trader (HFT) trading performance, trading costs, and effects on market efficiency using a sample of NASDAQ trades and quotes that directly identifies HFT participation. I find that HFTs engage in successful intra-day market timing, spreads are wider when HFTs provide liquidity and tighter when HFTs take liquidity, and prices incorporate information from order flow and market-wide returns more efficiently on days when HFT participation is high.     

One Share - One Vote: the Theory

The theoretical literature on security-voting structure canbe organized around three questions: What impact do nonvotingshares have on takeover outcomes? How does disproportional votingpower affect the incentives of blockholders? What are the repercussionsof mandating one share - one vote for firms' financing and ownershipchoices? Overall, the costs and benefits of separating cashflow and votes reflect the fundamental governance trade offbetween disempowering blockholders and empowering managers.It is therefore an open question whether mandating one share- one vote would improve the quality of corporate governance,notably in systems that so far relied on active owners.     

Illiquidity Premium in the MILA

This article analyzes the illiquidity premium in the MILA. Using seven proxies for illiquidity, we find a positive and significant illiquidity premium for our sample. A microstructure bias-free portfolio weighting based on past returns is critical in our finding of an illiquidity premium, which is robust to several methodological changes in our portfolio simulations. We also document that the premium is present only in small and high book-to-market stocks. Nonetheless, when we control for size and distress effects, the difference and significance in risk-adjusted returns between portfolios of high and low illiquidity stocks remains.     

Earnings management and accrual anomaly across market states and business cycles

This paper examines if the conditioning on market states is important to earnings management behaviors and profitability of accrual hedge strategy. This paper discusses four findings. First, accrual profits are consistently positive across both market states and significantly higher in DOWN markets. Second, while earnings management exists in both market states, the management effort is less effective and short-lived in the DOWN state. Third, this paper finds that the accrual effect exists but varies across industries. Finally, this paper examines how business cycles associate with accrual anomaly and show that accruals mispricing cannot be fully captured by macroeconomic model predicted returns.     

Corporate Multinationality and Acquirer Returns

This paper provides evidence on how corporate multinationality from the perspective of acquiring firms relates to M&A returns. Using multivariate regressions and a large dataset of over 6,000 M&As (both cross-border and domestic) by UK firms during 1987 to 2014, the paper finds multinationality to be associated with significantly higher short-run announcement returns and long-run operating performance. While the multinationality premium (higher M&A returns for multinationals) persists over time, it seems to be restricted to firms with superior resource/managerial capabilities and minimal agency problems. Finally, the multinationality premium appears to be driven by foreign acquisitions into advanced economies. The results are robust to correcting for sample selection bias and controlling for several firm and deal characteristics, as well as accounting for firm-, industry-, and year-fixed effects. Collectively, the findings imply that multinationality could be a source of value creation for acquiring firms, particularly in foreign acquisitions, which tend to be complex, and, thereby, require superior managerial capabilities to succeed.     

The Role of Banks in Dividend Policy

We use loan‐specific data to document a significant inverse relation between a firm's dividend payouts and the intensity of a firm's reliance on bank loan financing. Banks limit dividend payouts to protect the integrity of their senior claims on the firm's assets. Moreover, dividend payouts decline in the presence of monitoring by relationship banks, which acts as an effective governance mechanism, thereby reducing the gains from precommitting to costly dividend payouts. Bank monitoring and corporate governance (insider stake and institutional block holdings) are complementary mechanisms to resolve firm agency problems, both reducing the firm's reliance on dividend policy.     

Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions II

Market cycles play a great role in reinsurance. Cycle transitions are not independent from the claim arrival process: a large claim or a high number of claims may accelerate cycle transitions. To take this into account, a semi-Markovian risk model is proposed and analyzed. A refined Erlangization method is developed to compute the finite-time ruin probability of a reinsurance company. Numerical applications and comparisons to results obtained from simulation methods are given. The impact of dependency between claim amounts and phase changes is studied.     

Compound mixed Poisson distributions I

The concept of compound mixed Poisson distributions in actuarial science is used to represent such variables as the total amount of claims or losses payable by an insurer. In this paper, comprehensive collections of approximate forms are derived for the compound mixed Poisson distribution. The calculations involve use of several special functions and their properties. We believe that the results will serve as an important reference in actuarial science.