Full information estimation and stochastic simulation of models with rational expectations

A computationally feasible method for the full information maximum-likelihood estimation of models with rational expectations is described in this paper. The stochastic simulation of such models is also described. The methods discussed in this paper should open the way for many more tests of the rational expectations hypothesis within macroeconomic models.     

CORPORATE CULTURE: THE LAST FRONTIER OF CONTROL?[1]

The purpose of this paper is to examine the present U.S. use of the concept of ‘corporate culture’ using the sociology of Emile Durkheim as a conceptual framework. Durkheim was concerned with understanding where potential sources of morality might reside in a rapidly changing, increasingly differentiated society. Proponents of corporate culture do not rely specifically on Durkheim's work but essentially answer his question by suggesting that the corporation is the appropriate site for moral order. In this paper it is argued that the attempted manipulation of a corporation's culture is simply an addition to other forms of control which companies have tried to implement. More than other forms of control, however, corporate culture elicits sentiment and emotion, and contains possibilities to ensnare workers in a hegemonic system. On the other hand, strengthening corporate cultures in the U.S.A may also lead to increased worker homogenization and activism.     

Short reviews

FOUR SHORT REVIEWS ON THE THEME OF MARKETS AND JOBS

Leedale, M. 1988: Working Paper No. 108 — Intervention and the East London Clothing Industry. Oxford Polytechnic School of Planning, £4.00 plus 85p p. & p.

Lemaitre, J. (ed) 1988: Long Term Unemployment: Which Way Out? Brussels: Elise Publications, 10/Ecus/BF440 + BF50 postage.

Stewart A. 1968: Planning Homes and Jobs: The Sheffield Report Sheffield City Council, £10.00 including postage.

Association of County Councils, Association of District Councils, Association of Metropolitan Authorities. Stimulating Local Enterprise, the local authority role. £5.50 including postage.

Anglo German Foundation and Otto-Blume-lnstitut fur Sozialforschung und Gesellschafts politik, 1988, Local Labour Market Policies in Britain and Germany, London: Anglo-German Foundation for the Study of Industrial Society. 17 Bloomsbury Square. London WC1A 1LP, £4.50.

Watson, J. (ed), 1989: An Introduction to Political Economy & Planning: Four Interesting Essays, Anglia Higher Education College.

Report for the Commission of Bishop's Council of Diocese of Birmingham, 1988: Faith in the City of Birmingham. Exeter. Paternoster Press, £3.50.     

The allocative efficiency and conservation potential of water laws encouraging investments in on-farm irrigation technology

Agricultural water conservation statutes are emerging in the West encouraging private irrigators to improve on‐farm irrigation efficiency as a basinwide conservation measure. We investigate whether private improvements promote the economic efficiency and conservation of water use basinwide under a wide variety of hydroeconomic circumstances. The standard of efficiency is how an irrigation district manager should optimally invest in improving the irrigation efficiencies of individual farms located along a stream while internalizing intrabasin allocative externalities of these investments. The results indicate that the popular Oregon legislative model may be the least effective in conserving water and promoting economically efficient water allocation.     

Is UK Vice Chancellor Pay Justified by University Performance?

The pay of university managers (vice chancellors, VCs) in the UK has risen sharply in recent years. This paper considers the extent to which VC pay awards are related to university performance measures based around institution mission and financial probity using an individual fixed effects strategy based on data covering academic years 1998–99 to 2008–09. In contrast to earlier studies on this theme, we find evidence that VCs are rewarded for observable mission‐based performance measures. Specifically, our results suggest that success in widening participation for students from comprehensive schools and those from areas with low university participation exerts a positive effect on VCs' pay. Securing income flows from university funding council grants also impacts positively on their remuneration. However, even after controlling for a rich array of observable and unobservable factors, there have been sizeable increases in real pay in recent years that cannot be readily explained.     

Economic Impacts of Inbound Tourism under Different Assumptions Regarding the Macroeconomy

On what is taken to be the 'Standard View', increased tourism expenditure from inbound markets has direct, indirect and induced effects on a host destination, leading to increased production, income and employment. Strong links between tourism and other sectors of business reduce import leakages from tourism expenditure thereby enhancing the multiplier effects of the injected expenditure on domestic output, value added and employment. The usual technique for analysing these effects is input-output analysis. This paper argues that economy-wide effects must be taken into account in determining the impacts of increased tourism expenditure on a destination, and that the 'Standard View' is superficial and very often misleading. An expanding tourism industry tends to 'crowd out' other sectors of economic activity, reducing the demand for traditional exports and import competing industries. The extent of these 'crowding out' effects depends, in turn, on the workings of labour markets, changes in prices and the real exchange rate, and the macroeconomic policy context. It is argued that these mechanisms can only properly be taken into account using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models rather than input-output modelling. The paper then looks at applications of CGE modelling to tourism growth in both nations and regions, classifying the various studies according to assumptions made about labour markets and government policies. The discussion has relevance for estimating the economic contribution of tourism in all destinations. The paper concludes with some observations regarding the use of CGE modelling in tourism contexts internationally and issues for further research.     

棉花市场近期展望

今年6月27日至29日,由中国棉花协会、农业部农村经济研究中心、全国棉花交易市场共同主办的"2007’中国国际棉花会议"在乌鲁木齐召开,与会政府官员、联合国粮农组织官员,以及专家、学者就"入世五年的中国棉业与全球未来市场"主题进行了热烈讨论。现将部分官员、专家、学者的发言摘要刊登如下: