Rebuilding the limit order book: sequential Bayesian inference on hidden states

The limit order book of an exchange represents an information store of market participants’ future aims and for many traders the information held in this store is of interest. However, information loss occurs between orders being entered into the exchange and limit order book data being sent out. We present an online algorithm which carries out Bayesian inference to replace information lost at the level of the exchange server and apply our proof of concept algorithm to real historical data from some of the world’s most liquid futures contracts as traded on CME GLOBEX, EUREX and NYSE Liffe exchanges.     

Technological advances and the decision to invest

Technological advances impact a firm’s investment decision, as they affect the investment cost. They can also affect the profitability due to demand shocks. We study a firm’s optimal investment decision when technological advances occur as surprises and induce uncertain reductions in the investment cost and in earnings. Despite this complex setting we derive closed-form solutions for the investment option value and the investment threshold. When technological advances only impact the investment cost, we demonstrate significant contributions compared to existing research, which restricts the analysis by keeping the expected investment cost path constant. For example, we show that, albeit the investment threshold is constant, the option value is very sensitive in the expected impact of technological advances. Leaving the restrictive setting, we obtain more intuitive results, e.g. that more frequent technological advances increase the option value. When technological advances impact future earnings we find important long-term effects: the investment threshold increases, whereas the option value decreases. Finally, earnings volatility postpones investment, while uncertainty due to technological advances expedites investment.     

Food for Thought on the ABS Academic Journal Quality Guide

This paper discusses issues relating to the use of the Association of Business Schools' (ABS) Academic Journal Quality Guide within UK business schools. It also looks at several specific issues raised by the Chair of the British Accounting Association/British Accounting and Finance Association regarding the ratings for top international journals, and for accounting education and accounting history journals. The increasing use of this guide by business school deans/heads as a tool for staffing and research resource allocation has significant implications both for individuals and specialist areas of research.     

The Measurement of Harmonisation and the Comparability of Financial Statement Items: Within-Country and Between-Country Effects

This paper reports on an analysis of accounting policy choices made by European companies with an international shareholding. The accounting policies analysed in depth in this paper comprise the treatment of goodwill and accounting for deferred taxation. In the paper, the van der Tas comparability index is developed by separating the index into two components relating to the within-country (intra-national) effects of domestic standardisation and the between-country (inter-national) effects of harmonisation. It is shown in this paper that the value of the index may be interpreted as the probability that two companies selected at random will report financial information that is comparable, and that the lowest level of comparability exists when the accounting methods are assumed to be distributed equiprobably over the companies, the outcome of a random selection of accounting policies. The paper also considers the problems of non-disclosure, and a comprehensive ‘disclosure-adjusted’ comparability index is proposed.     

Linkages in international stock markets: evidence from a classification procedure

In this article, we propose a new approach to evaluate the predictable components in stock indices using a boosting-based classification technique, and we use this method to examine causality among the three main stock market indices in the world during periods of large positive and negative price changes. The empirical evidence seems to indicate that the Standard & Poors 500 index contains incremental information that is not present in either the FTSE 100 index (Financial Times Stock Exchange Index) or the Nikkei 225 index, and that could be used to enhance the predictability of the large positive and negative returns in the three main stock market indices in the world. This in turn would suggest a causality relationship running from the Standard & Poors 500 index to both the FTSE 100 and the Nikkei 225 indices.     

Still waiting for Mister Right? Asymmetric information,abortion laws and the timing of marriage

Previous studies have suggested that more liberal abortion laws should lead to a decrease in marriage rates among young women as ‘shotgun weddings’ are no longer necessary. Empirical evidence from the United States lends support to that hypothesis. This article presents an alternative theory of abortion access and marriage based on the cost of search which suggests that more liberal abortion laws may actually promote young marriage. An empirical examination of marriage data from Eastern Europe shows that countries that liberalized their abortion laws saw an increase in marriage rates among nonteenage women.     

A Field Experimental Investigation of Managerially Facilitated Consumer-to-Consumer Interaction

Positive social interactions among consumers are considered increasingly important elements in corporate relationship marketing efforts. There is scant empirical research, however, demonstrating the effect of consumer interactions facilitated by service industry managers on consumer evaluations and behavioral intentions. This study employs a field experimental methodology utilizing four half-day cultural heritage tours (n = 156) to examine consumer-to-consumer (C-to-C) interactions within the group travel context. Research findings demonstrate that managerially facilitated C-to-C interactions significantly increase tour member satisfaction and enjoyment. Theoretical and managerial implications are discussed, and calls are made for more field experimental methodologies to be used in tourism research.