我国公共基础设施的规模效应及结构效应分析——基于1996-2010的制造业行业数据

基于三要素的成本函数,本文利用1996—2010年20个制造业行业的面板数据,考察了以能源、交通以及邮电通讯为代表的公共基础设施对产业部门的要素投入数量以及要素投入结构的影响。结果表明:公共基本设施投入不仅具有降低行业平均成本的作用,而且对行业成本结构具有显著影响。相对于劳动投入,要素投入更加向资本和中间品倾斜。     

企业动态能力-基于ZARA开发事业蓝海的研究

全球化时代的来临模糊了企业经营的边界，导致公司间的竞争更加激烈，企业惟有培养出感知环境机会与威胁的能力，建立起自身的动态能力支撑体系，才能应付顾客需求及技术的快速变化。本文应用Teeee提出的企业动态能力分析框架，分析ZARA如何打破传统服装公司的经营模式，在变化快速的时尚产业中快速感知机会、获取机会并创造出自身的动态能力经营模式，以便能快速掌握流行趋势及消费者需求变化，成功地在快速变化及竞争激烈的经营环境中打造出不断创新、适应外部环境的动态能力，在时尚产业中开发出自身的事业蓝海。     

论中国经济结构演变的动因及其趋势

改革开放30年来,我国经济取得了突飞猛进的发展,这与我国经济结构多次合理调整有着紧密联系.加入世界贸易组织后,我国经济加快融入国际经济中,一定程度上也对我国国民经济结构提出了更高要求.本文根据当前我国国民经济发展状况,充分考虑世界科技加快发展和国际经济结构重组的趋势,着眼干全面提高国民经济整体素质和效益,增强综合国力和国际竞争力,注重对"变化"的研究,强调时间与历史、制度变迁等在经济演化中的重要地位,全面考察我国经济结构演变的动因及其趋势.     

论东方管理的人道哲学

管理行为的基础是管理哲学，基于不同文化背景下的管理理论与实践的哲学基础是不同的，东方管理学的管理哲学就是“道”。文章通过概括和分析东方管理的哲学基础，阐述了道与人道以及人道原则在管理实践中的运用。     

从当代中国的消费特征看服装品牌的发展走势

中国现阶段正处于大历史背景下的社会转型期,此时的中国消费市场出现了一些显著的特征：炫耀性消费,盲目追随性消费和冲动性消费,并且这些消费特征有明显上升的趋势。面对这一现象,服装企业该如何在危机中寻找机遇？如何调整市场战略以适应眼下消费者的需求？本文认为：增强品牌意识,改变经营思路,拓宽营销渠道是转机的基础。我们说有＂危＂才有＂机＂,中国的服装产业应在消费市场变化的当下找出自己的发展道路。     

Nonlinearity and stationarity of inflation rates: evidence from the euro-zone countries

Earlier studies hardly reject the hypothesis of a unit root in inflation. Few studies have examined the possibility of nonlinearity in inflation and tested nonlinear stationarity of the inflation rates. This study thus intends to fill the gap. This study utilizes the tests for nonlinearity along with the unit root tests that allow for nonlinearity in the variables to examine the stationarity of inflation rates of 12 European countries that formed the Euro Zone (EZ) later in the sample period. The results suggest that the majority of these countries’ inflation rates can be characterized by mean reversion during the floating exchange rate period. Many of them appear to be nonlinear stationary. This finding is essential in conducting applied economic studies for these countries, when constructing models whose validity relies on whether or not inflation is stationary. The results of this study also imply that shocks to inflation have a transitory effect on inflation in the euro area. Therefore, it would be less costly in exercising the policies of disinflation for the monetary authorities of the euro area than for those of the countries with nonstationary inflation.     

农业劳动力老龄化对生计效率的影响

目的 随着农业劳动力老龄化问题日益加剧，农户家庭生计资本和生计产出结构也发生了显著的变化。文章主要探讨农业劳动力老龄化对生计资源要素配置的影响及作用机理，进而为缓解农业老龄化危机、提高农户的自我发展能力提出合理化建议。方法 基于2021年陕南秦巴山区农户实地调研数据，运用DEA-Tobit二阶段模型验证二者之间的关系。结果 （1）陕南秦巴山区农户生计效率的规模效率最高，纯技术效率略低于规模效率，综合效率最低。大部分农户生计活动呈现规模收益递减状态，生计产出的增长低于生计投入的增长。（2）农业劳动力老龄化抑制了生计效率的提高，且在低收入水平家庭和户主低受教育程度家庭表现更为明显。（3）农业资金投入的增加能够缓冲农业劳动力老龄化对生计效率的负向影响。结论 因此，要正视农业劳动力老龄化现象，引导农户合理配置生计资源，提高农业资金投入使用效率，促进农户家庭自我发展能力。     

Comparing Firm Failure Predictions Between Logit,KMV, and ZPP Models: Evidence from Taiwan’s Electronics Industry

This paper applies the Taiwan electronics industry data to detect the discriminatory powers of Logit, KMV, and zero-price probability (ZPP) models that represent respectively the regressive fitting model, the option-based pricing model, and the GARCH time series simulation model. In our circumstances, according to cumulative accuracy profile, receiver operating characteristic, and even Brier score, the KMV performs the worst. The disadvantages for KMV are that the equity market exists some nonlinear characteristics, the unknown market value of asset affected by the change of capital structure is not exogenous, and the failure point is difficult to be estimated correctly. Besides, KMV is however too simple to model the fluctuation of the equity value as the GARCH does. On the other hand, the Logit performs above average. To preclude over-fitting and keep model parsimonious, two significant factors are extracted from as many as forty financial variables for the logistic regression on binary failure data. The result of Logit training has perfect discrimination. However, for the post-sample data, the fitting to categorical but not ordinal data makes Logit have the divergent failure predicted probabilities and highest Briser Score. In practical, ZPP GARCHNorm uses just equity value to predict firm failure but it performs remarkably well supposing that downward price trend or volatility persistence in stock price changes is appropriately caught. It implies that the distorted signals such as overreaction of traders and insider trading would definitely impair the ZPP GARCHNorm. Nevertheless, the larger type I error than type II error in all models indicates that the prediction of non-failed firms should be more examined further than that of failed firms.     

品牌之现在进行式

本文从当下最受关注的"品牌"出发,初步探讨了品牌的概念、品牌的影响力、品牌与产品之间的关系以及品牌的战略思想等问题。文章首先介绍了品牌的概念,接着用实例说明了品牌与产品之间的关系,最后阐述了企业从产品时代迈向品牌时代的必然之路。     

地方政府利益、地方政府行为与经济增长

目前,对中国地方政府的经济行为的研究强调了在经济转型过程中地方政府在多样化的地方经济发展模式中的主导作用,注意到了地方政府目标的多重性,本地区社会福利最大化,政府利益最大化以及中央政府的满意程度等。对地方政府在公共产品的提供、就业、收入分配、实现社会公平等方面行为不到位方面的研究是从定性方法来论证。本文试图在定性分析基础上建立一些基本的数学模型为将来的计量研究提供一个模型框架。