贸易摩擦背景下关税与货币政策反制策略研究

通过将贸易品美元定价约束、外汇噪声交易和关税反制等特征融入两国DSGE模型，文章对贸易摩擦背景下美国进口关税冲击的传导渠道以及中国的关税反制策略与货币应对政策有效性等问题进行了数值分析。研究发现，关税反制措施能够有效地对冲美国加征进口关税对中国实际产出、消费和净出口的消极影响，并有助于抑制人民币实际汇率贬值。若进一步搭配将出口品关税纳入利率调控框架的积极货币政策，对于经济扩张与保持汇率稳定都更加有效。但从长期社会福利角度看，积极货币政策对美国经济也具有明显的正向溢出作用，关税反制则会产生显著的福利转移效应，不采取任何关税与货币应对政策将使中国遭受最大的福利损失。因此，基于"打击最大化、自损最小化"原则，中国应对美国采取坚决有力的关税反击，同时保持货币政策相对中性、克制，以期实现"以战促和"的战略目标。     

短视频平台用户黏性研究

网络媒体的发展和手机的普及,将日常工作和生活之外的时间分割成许多碎片.短视频移动应用程序就是这样诞生的.它满足了人们对视频的巨大需求,吸引了大量用户,成为互联网公司开发的新产品.其中,应用抖音为短视频音乐社交应用,在短视频产品中尤为突出.但是,要想在竞争激烈的短视频市场中保持强势地位,就必须考虑用户体验.     

抚仙湖流域土地集约利用动态变化研究

随着城市化与工业化进程的不断推进土地节约集约利用变得越来越重要.为研究抚仙湖流域土地集约利用的现状,本文采用了熵权法、多因素综合分析法,科学地构建了抚仙湖流域包括人口、经济和社会等多因素的综合评价指标体系,计算出2010-2018年流域内土地集约利用水平.结果显示抚仙湖流域土地集约利用具有明显的阶段性特征,2010-2018年土地集约利用度的变化呈现出先下降,然后快速增长,再缓慢增长的趋势;2010-2012年为中度粗放;2013-2015年为低度集约;2016-2018年为中度集约,总体水平呈现出上升趋势.影响抚仙湖流域的土地利用变化的原因是社会经济的不断发展,对土地资源的需求在不断的发生变化,致使抚仙湖流域的土地利用从粗放到集约的转变.     

Cautious yet Optimistic Attitude towards the Slight Growth

From Jan. to Jan. of the year of 2014, the overall operation of Textile Machinery industry saw a slight increase. The main business and profit of the textile machinery enterprises above designated size increased slightly but the scale of losses has been enlarged. The total imports and exports grow by 12.09%, with a slight year on year growth of imports by 5.04% and a significant year on year growth of exports by 24.52%. The fixed asset investment of textile machinery grows by as little as 1.08%, and the amount of new projects saw a year on year decrease by 0.96%.     

Measuring the Impact of China's Export Growth on its Asian Neighbours

The rise of China as an economic power has led to concern in many Asian counties that this development poses a threat to their ability to export. The empirical support for this remains inconsistent, however. One explanation for these inconsistencies includes biases that follow from the use of a gravity model specified in an a‐theoretical manner. We study the effect of the Chinese exports growth using the empirical framework outlined by Baldwin and Taglioni (2006). We report evidence of a positive relationship between Chinese and its Asian neighbours’ exports, with countries with greater endowments of human capital benefiting most from this growth.     

边疆欠发达多民族地区农地经营权流转市场运行机制构建研究——以新疆呼图壁县为例

[目的]随着农村产权制度改革的不断推进,农地市场处于初步发育阶段并存在诸多缺陷与现实困境,严重制约着我国现代化农业进程,边疆欠发达多民族地区由于其固有的特殊性与受限性,构建适宜、高效的农地经营权流转市场运行机制已是必然选择。[方法]采用实地调查法,对新疆呼图壁县农村土地交易市场试点实施情况进行深入调研。[结果]当前呼图壁县农地经营权市场化流转面临少数民族聚居村庄农地流转后农民陷入边缘化、农地流转呈低供需水平下的供过于求状态、合理的市场价格机制尚未建立、市场化中介条件不理想、二、三产业拉动力不足、农民再就业市场发育不成熟等现实困境。[结论]以继续做好农村土地确权颁证工作、稳定农村土地承包关系为前提,以合理市场价格机制为核心,完善市场化中介组织条件为助推器,培育农地流转供求机制,进而促进农地流转市场竞争与价格调控为内生动力,强化政府宏观管理调控为保障,构建农地经营权流转市场有效运行机制。     

品牌战略视域下的上海自贸区建设——新加坡经验的借鉴

上海自贸区建设的成功与否取决于后续具体措施细则的规划与落实,品牌战略则是建设外向型经济的重要导向.本文以品牌战略为切入点,分析新加坡一路走来的成功经验和理念,为上海自贸区建设提供一定的借鉴启示：从理念树立、政策实施、制度创新、行业建设四方面着手打造上海自贸区品牌.     

The Great Halls of China? Meeting Planners’ Perceptions of Beijing as an International Convention Destination

This research focused on meeting planners’ perceptions about selecting Beijing as an international convention destination. Twenty-three convention destination site selection criteria organized into five categories were identified. It was found that, with respect to Beijing, the importance of site selection criteria has changed since the late 1990s, with meeting planners now attaching more weight to the quality of convention services, quality of convention planning assistance, and city image. The meeting planners who had previously held international conventions in Beijing attached greater importance to research and development cooperation opportunities and choice of accommodations than those who had not. They rated Beijing's performance lower on the convenience of the application process (required by Chinese governments) and government support. It was concluded that Beijing needs to improve most on the quality of convention services and convention planning assistance, and by relaxing government policies related to the holding of international conventions.     

中美商业银行客户经理激励机制比较研究

随着全球化的日渐深入，我国金融人才的激励机制已成为国内各大银行竞争成败的关键。世界第一大金融中心的美国华尔街的商业银行客户经理激励机制值得我们借鉴和参考，因为客户经理既是银行与客户关系的代表，又是银行对外业务的代表，客户经理制式业务营销将在很长一段时间内保持金融市场营销的主导地位。通过对成功案例的分析，本文从不同角度比较中关商业银行客户经理激励机制的差异性，可以从中得到有益启示。     

Analysis of failure time using threshold regression with semi‐parametric varying coefficients

Many new statistical models may enjoy better interpretability and numerical stability than traditional models in survival data analysis. Specifically, the threshold regression (TR) technique based on the inverse Gaussian distribution is a useful alternative to the Cox proportional hazards model to analyse lifetime data. In this article we consider a semi‐parametric modelling approach for TR and contribute implementational and theoretical details for model fitting and statistical inferences. Extensive simulations are carried out to examine the finite sample performance of the parametric and non‐parametric estimates. A real example is analysed to illustrate our methods, along with a careful diagnosis of model assumptions.