Kalte Progression wird nach Einführung der Schuldenbremse ein zunehmendes Problem

As taxpayers typically pay relatively little attention to low levels of inflation induced income tax bracket creep, policy makers tend to regularly postpone correction of this problem. Eventually, however, the fiscal illusion fades away, and political pressure for tax relief arises once the cumulative increase of the average tax rate exceeds a critical threshold. Using Germany as an example, it is shown that bracket creep can provoke revenue cycles in public budgets that hinder governments’ compliance with the numerical budget rules. An indexation of the tax tariff, which would provide an automatic correction for bracket creep, could prevent such fluctuations and thus provide a favourable framework for the debt brake.     

Happiness,income and poverty

There is considerable evidence from a variety of sources to suggest that well-being is a function of relative income. These findings have been used to explain the Easterlin Paradox, whereby a rise in income for all does not lead to a rise in average happiness in a country (even though the cross section relationship between income and happiness is positive). This relativity of utility has led to calls for policy to focus away from GDP. I here first discuss some of the evidence that well-being is indeed relative in income, but then consider two relatively little-analysed issues to suggest that there may continue to be a role for GDP per capita in happiness-based policy: the inequality of subjective well-being, and the specific case of those in income poverty.     

Do political connections affect stock price crash risk? Firm-level evidence from China

Using a sample of Chinese listed firms in the period from 2003 to 2012, this paper empirically investigates how the presence of politically connected directors affects stock price crash risk. We thereby make a distinction between listed state-controlled firms and privately controlled firms due to their different incentives to appoint politicians as directors on the board. Our empirical results show that politically connected directors exacerbate stock price crash risk in listed state-controlled firms, an effect driven by the appointment of local government officials as directors. In contrast, hiring politicians as directors, particularly central-government-affiliated directors, helps listed privately controlled firms to reduce stock price crash risk. Finally, good quality of institutions does not help to alleviate the positive relationship between political connections and stock price crash risk in listed state-controlled firms. However, it does weaken the role of political connections in reducing crash risk in listed privately controlled firms.     

Analyse der Abwicklung von gesetzlichen Krankenkassen per sozialrechtlicher Schließung oder per Insolvenzverfahren

Private as well as statutory health insurers have various ways of insolvency. Although the Insolvency Act has been applied for statutory health insurance since 2010, these new options were not used up to now. Anyway, the legislators laid the preference out of closure. This article investigates how the priority of closure could be in contradiction to the applicability of the Insolvency Act. It is asked, whether the introduction of the insolvency capability of health insurance funds was rather to assimilate the frame conditions relating to pension promises than creating a real alternative. One reason could be, that the Insolvency Act is not only generally applicable in the liquidation of a health insurance fund, but potentially even the best alternative. The insolvency proceedings for example are advantageous for health insurance funds within the same group because the maximum load is split and lower than it would be by a closure by social law and in addition to that the PSV is obligatory. The results show, that the generally-accepted, not limited standard preference of closure as laid out by the legislators in § 171b (3) S. 2 SGB V, seems inexplicable. The paper draws parallels to private health insurance companies under Solvency II and opens up new perspectives for legislative measures.     

Long waves in prices: new evidence from wavelet analysis

In this paper we apply wavelet analysis to study the dynamics of long-term movements in wholesale prices for the USA, the UK and France over the period 1791–2012. The application of wavelet analysis to long-term historical price series allows us to detect long waves in prices whose periodization is remarkably similar to those provided in the literature for the pre-World War II period. Moreover, we find evidence on the existence of long waves in prices also after World War II, a period in which long waves are generally difficult to detect because of the positive trend displayed by prices. The comparison between the long wave components extracted through wavelets and the Christiano–Fitzgerald band-pass filter suggests that wavelets provide a reliable and straightforward technique for analyzing long waves dynamics in time series exhibiting quite complex patterns such as historical data.     

Super returns to Super Bowl ads?

This paper uses a natural experiment—the Super Bowl—to study the causal effect of advertising on demand for movies. Identification of the causal effect rests on two points: 1) Super Bowl ads are purchased before advertisers know which teams will play; 2) home cities of the teams that are playing will have proportionally more viewers than viewers in other cities. We find that the movies in our sample experience on average incremental opening weekend ticket sales of about $8.4 million from a $3 million Super Bowl advertisement.     

Regulatory arbitrage and the FERC rate settlement process

We demonstrate that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) regulatory procedures for natural gas pipelines, specifically its rate-refund policy, induces regulatory arbitrage that leads to economic distortions. Specifically, we demonstrate that the rate refund policy causes pipelines effectively to “extort” ratepayers through the addition of economically inefficient capital investment, akin to “gold-plating” investments. We estimate the potential magnitude of this arbitrage impact on ratepayers to be between $400 and $700 million annually. Counterintuitively, however, we demonstrate that the presence of this arbitrage opportunity leads to underinvestment in pipeline capacity, thus negating one of the principal purposes of rate regulation. We further demonstrate that FERC could easily eliminate this regulatory arbitrage by setting the refund interest rate to the pipeline’s as-filed weighted average cost of capital.     

Der Flexibilitätsbeitrag in der Arbeitslosenversicherung

The controversy around fixed-term contracts centres around the conflict between the employer’s need for flexibility and the employee’s need for security. The authors propose flexible contributions for employers to the public unemployment insurance system to balance both interests. The employers’ contributions for their temporary staff would increase while the contributions for their permanent staff would in turn decrease slightly. The authors calculate four versions. With regards to the total sum of contributions, the first version holds the contributions received constant while the second version leads to a reduction. They then repeat these two calculations for fixed-term contracts without substantive grounds. The flexibility premium takes into account the higher unemployment risk of employees with fixed-term contracts and establishes monetary incentives for employers to hire employees with permanent contracts.     

Green Project Bonds als finanzielle Alternative für Energieunternehmen

The reorientations of energy policy, and in particular the promotion of renewables, have changed the market conditions for energy companies significantly. Over recent years, the resulting challenges put the energy companies’ financial ratios under severe stress. As the need to invest remains urgent, energy firms seek to broaden and diversify their sources of funding. Against this backdrop, the article addresses an innovative form of securities-based debt financing for energy companies, which explicitly links the financing transaction to the investing of funds in renewable energy projects. Due to the early stage of development of so called green (project) bonds, an initial disambiguation is essential. Thereafter, current market processes, structures and rules are considered. Based hereupon, it is possible to discuss the new opportunities that green project bonds afford energy companies.