The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market

We empirically analyze the pricing of political uncertainty, guided by a theoretical model of government policy choice. To isolate political uncertainty, we exploit its variation around national elections and global summits. We find that political uncertainty is priced in the equity option market as predicted by theory. Options whose lives span political events tend to be more expensive. Such options provide valuable protection against the price, variance, and tail risks associated with political events. This protection is more valuable in a weaker economy and amid higher political uncertainty. The effects of political uncertainty spill over across countries.     

Estimating the Intertemporal Risk–Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital

We argue that the implied cost of capital (ICC), computed using earnings forecasts, is useful in capturing time variation in expected stock returns. First, we show theoretically that ICC is perfectly correlated with the conditional expected stock return under plausible conditions. Second, our simulations show that ICC is helpful in detecting an intertemporal risk–return relation, even when earnings forecasts are poor. Finally, in empirical analysis, we construct the time series of ICC for the G–7 countries. We find a positive relation between the conditional mean and variance of stock returns, at both the country level and the world market level.     

Does EU Enlargement Increase Agro‐Food Export Duration?

This paper examines the impact of EU enlargement on agro‐food export performance across 12 new EU member states and five newly independent states in the EU markets covering the period 1999 to 2007. The performance is examined by duration of export and hazard model. We find larger duration for the agro‐food exports from the new EU member states. The results confirm gains from the eastward EU enlargement and governance on export increases and longer duration for exporting higher value‐added specialized consumer‐ready food and more competitive niche agro‐food products.     

Coefficients of ergodicity for Markov chains with uncertain parameters

One of the central considerations in the theory of Markov chains is their convergence to an equilibrium. Coefficients of ergodicity provide an efficient method for such an analysis. Besides giving sufficient and sometimes necessary conditions for convergence, they additionally measure its rate. In this paper we explore coefficients of ergodicity for the case of imprecise Markov chains. The latter provide a convenient way of modelling dynamical systems where parameters are not determined precisely. In such cases a tool for measuring the rate of convergence is even more important than in the case of precisely determined Markov chains, since most of the existing methods of estimating the limit distributions are iterative. We define a new coefficient of ergodicity that provides necessary and sufficient conditions for convergence of the most commonly used class of imprecise Markov chains. This so-called weak coefficient of ergodicity is defined through an endowment of the structure of a metric space to the class of imprecise probabilities. Therefore we first make a detailed analysis of the metric properties of imprecise probabilities.     

Devolution or (de)centralization of HRM function in European organizations

This article deals with the condition and changes of the HRM function in various European states. These changes have shown a shift of HRM tasks from HRM departments to managers themselves, and are according to the literature, this shift is known as devolution or decentralization. Our attention is focused on important factors in this process (from organizational ones, such as HRM strategies and policies, to more environmental ones, such as the sector or the state). Analysis shows that the country (as an institutional environment) sets the limits or encourages development towards devolution. HRM policy within the individual institutional context is of only secondary importance. Results show that country is a factor that fosters divergent tendencies and HRM policy accelerates convergence in HRM practice.     

Geosite assessments: comparison of methods and results

Geotourism as a rapidly evolving and attractive tourism form expands into many regions. This ‘new’ tourism form brings new research issues to be solved including, e.g. geosite identification, geosite assessment, geopark establishment, (geo)tourist trail definitions. One of the biggest challenges of researchers not only in the field of geotourism is to set specific value of an individual locality. The aim of this paper is to compare selected assessment methods of geosites. Different quantitative methods were selected due to fact that it is possible to compare final score of assessments. The results show that using different assessment methods on selected localities gives different results and geosite rankings. Based on this fact, further research in the field of geosite assessment is needed for (geo)tourism planning and management as discussed in this paper.     

Restoring tourist flows and regenerating city's image: the case of Belgrade

The aim of this research is to examine the effects of the post-1990 transition on the relocation of tourism and changes in the structure of tourism over the last 20 years in Belgrade. Economic and social development altered spatial relations of tourist factors and elements. Apart from the old city core, new tourist zones and directions appeared. Tourist flows and economic challenges influenced the rationalisation of doing business and relocating the hotels outside the central city municipalities. Belgrade has been acknowledged as a low-cost destination of fun and nightlife and the city's new image has attracted more foreign tourists. Both the volume of foreign tourists and their countries of origin have changed significantly over the last several years. However, there have been negligible economic effects on the city's economy, despite this increase in the number of foreign tourists. In conclusion, we examine the implications of new directions in tourism development for the future position of Belgrade as a tourist destination in a competitive European market.     

Simulation Monte Carlo methods in extended stochastic volatility models

A new technique for nonlinear state and parameter estimation of discrete time stochastic volatility models is developed. Algorithms of Gibbs sampler and simulation filters are used to construct a simulation tool that reflects both inherent model variability and parameter uncertainty. The proposed chain converges to equilibrium enabling the estimation of unobserved volatilities and unknown model parameter distributions. The estimation algorithm is illustrated using numerical examples. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.