Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Japan

This study investigates the returns and volatility of bull and bear markets as represented by the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX). Our results show that bull markets are characterized by high returns and low volatility and that the opposite is true for bear markets. Further, this study uncovers a relationship between the duration of bull and bear markets and the point at which the TOPIX has turned from bull to bear and vice versa. Our results indicate that a bull or bear market has a higher probability of continuing as the duration of market’s current trend lengthens. If a bull or bear market trend persists for more than nine months, its probability of continuing approaches 1. Conversely, the transition from a rising to a declining market, and vice versa, is more likely to occur when the previous trend has persisted for less than nine months.     

Investment timing under debt issuance constraint

This paper examines the optimal investment timing decision problem of a firm subject to a debt financing capacity constraint. We show that the investment thresholds have a U-shaped relation with the debt capacity constraint, in that they are increasing (decreasing) with the constraint for high (low) debt issuance capacity. Although the financing constraint distorts investment timing, it may encourage the constrained levered firm to overinvest compared with the non-constrained levered firm. Our result fits well with the related problems involving the internal financing constraint.     

Growth and Welfare Effects of Monetary Expansion in an Overlapping-generations Economy

This paper studies the relation between money supply and the long-run economic growth in the context of an endogenous growth model with overlapping generations. We present detailed analyses of growth and welfare effects of monetary expansion under alternative money supply rules. It is shown that, although monetary expansion has a growth-enhancing effect in the long run, in general it is not a Pareto-improving policy. We also pay much attention to the presence of multiple equilbria in endogenous money supply regimes.
JEL Classification Numbers: E51, E62, O42.     

Effectiveness of Stochastic Neural Network for Prediction of Fall or Rise of TOPIX

Stochastic neural network is a hierarchical network of stochastic neurons which emit 0 or 1 with the probability determined by the values of inputs. We have developed an efficient training algorithm so as to maximize the likelihood of such a neural network. This algorithm enables us to apply the stochastic neural network to a practical problem like prediction of fall or rise of Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX). We trained it with the data from 1994 to 1996 and predicted the fall or rise of 1 day ahead of TOPIX for the period from 1997 to 2000. The result is quite promising. The accuracy of the prediction of the stochastic network is the 60.28%, although those of non-stochastic neural network, autoregressive model and GARCH model are 50.02, 51.38 and 57.21%, respectively. However, the stochastic neural network is not so advantageous over other networks or models for prediction of the TOPIX used for training. This means that the stochastic neural network is less over fitting to the training data than others, and results in the best prediction. We will demonstrate how the stochastic neural network learns well non-linear structure behind of the data in comparison to other models or networks, including Generalized Linear model (GLM).JEL codes: D24, L60, 047     

The effects of costly exploration on optimal investment timing

This paper investigates a principal–agent model in which an owner (principal) optimizes a contract with a manager (agent) who has been delegated to undertake an investment project. In the model, we explore the effects of costly exploration by which the manager learns the real value of development cost. We show that high exploration cost can lead to a pooling policy not contingent on project type. Further, and more notably, we show that, in the presence of asymmetric information, higher exploration cost leads to wealth transfer from owner to manager and can ultimately improve social welfare.     

The transformation of the wage and performance appraisal system in a Japanese firm

This paper analyses how performance appraisal has affected the wages of employees in a unionized Japanese firm over time, using firm-level wage and performance appraisal data. Data show that the wage and performance-appraisal systems have been shifting to a performance basis, and away from the heavy reliance on age and seniority characteristic of the old systems. In the process, wage differentials among employees are becoming wider, particularly among those 37 to 41 years old and those 49 to 55 years old. Management introduced the new wage system through a process of concessionary bargaining. Surprisingly, employees, rather than the enterprise union, were able to convince management to modify their initial plans during bargaining over the new wage system.     

Debt reorganization strategies with complete verification under information asymmetry

This paper examines optimal debt reorganization strategies in the presence of agency problems arising from information asymmetry between a firm and a bank during financial distress. In particular, in the structural model, we incorporate complete verification strategies for private information that the firm holds under information asymmetry. We show that under complete verification strategies, the agency conflict because of information asymmetry delays the debt reorganization, leading to a decrease in equity and debt values. These results fit well with the findings of previous empirical works in this area.     

The transfer of Japanese work practices to plants in Thailand

This paper analyses two Japanese transplants that have been manufacturing products in Thailand for a number of years. The research shows that these transplants have not fully adopted three Japanese work practices that are characteristic of workplaces in Japan (the significant troubleshooting skills possessed by production workers, the production support work provided by assistant first-line supervisors and the overlapping roles of manufacturing engineers). The low wages and the subdivided job consciousness of Thai employees, the presence of Japanese expatriates who are not familiar with the workplace practices actually used in Japan and the fact that the transplants have manufactured standardized mature products that do not require high troubleshooting skills, are found to be the main causes for the incomplete transfer of work practices from the mother company.     

A comparison of the roles and responsibilities of manufacturing engineers in Japan and the United States

The manufacturing engineering work in nine Japanese firms is structured by a horizontal division of labor between manufacturing design engineers and production process engineers, in contrast to a vertical division of labor between manufacturing engineers and technicians in three American firms. The production process engineers in the Japanese firms link manufacturing engineering processes closely with production processes, whereas less coordination between the two processes occurs in the American firms. Regarding product design, manufacturing engineering, and production processes in the Japanese firms, employees engaged in downstream processes are more heavily involved with work concerned with upstream processes than in the American firms.