Is the European integration speeding up the economic convergence process of the Central and South-Eastern European countries? A shock perspective

In the current context of continuous reassessment of the sustainability of the single currency and gradual enlargement of the euro area during the last decade, the objective of this research is to obtain new insights into the factors that determine the synchronisation of shocks in the Central and South-Eastern European countries vis-à-vis the euro area. The research contributes to the previous work by making a novel use of error correction model in a dynamic panel context which is extended by adding several important omitted variables related to the trade structure and policy coordination. We find that an increase in trade intensity, intra-industry trade and financial integration leads to less frequent asymmetric shocks. On the other hand, divergent fiscal policies are estimated in some model specifications to increase the shock divergence process, although the estimated impact is rather small to counteract the positive effects associated with trade and financial integration. The identified relationships in this research are affected by the significant trade and growth slowdown in the crisis period; while the global economic turmoil has boosted a demand shock convergence, its impact on the supply shocks is in the opposite (diverging) direction.     

Local time and the pricing of time-dependent barrier options

A time-dependent double-barrier option is a derivative security that delivers the terminal value φ(S _T ) at expiry T if neither of the continuous time-dependent barriers b _±:[0,T]→ℝ₊ have been hit during the time interval [0,T]. Using a probabilistic approach, we obtain a decomposition of the barrier option price into the corresponding European option price minus the barrier premium for a wide class of payoff functions φ, barrier functions b _± and linear diffusions (S _t ) _t∈[0,T]. We show that the barrier premium can be expressed as a sum of integrals along the barriers b _± of the option’s deltas Δ _±:[0,T]→ℝ at the barriers and that the pair of functions (Δ ₊,Δ ₋) solves a system of Volterra integral equations of the first kind. We find a semi-analytic solution for this system in the case of constant double barriers and briefly discus a numerical algorithm for the time-dependent case.     

从普遍“类本质”到具体的“历史化”——《1844年经济学-哲学手稿》中“异化”思想探微

异化理论是马克思《手稿》中影响最大的理论,本文从异化的内涵及表现、异化的成因及解决为切入点,探讨了《手稿》的"马克思主义"与之后的"马克思主义"思想之差异。本文认为,《资本论》的马克思主义才是真正重要的马克思主义,而《手稿》只是准备之作,马克思本人后来对其中的观点多有发展、修正。     

REIT Stock Price Volatility and the Effects of Leverage

This article sheds light on several puzzling empirical observations. We examine the volatility implications of equity Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) stock returns over the sample period from January 1985 through October 2012. We find a negative “leverage effect” in the pre‐ and post‐Greenspan era, but not during the Greenspan era (circa 1994–2006). We argue that the positive elasticity of variance with respect to the value of equity during the Greenspan era can be explained by a decline in the spread between the yield on commercial mortgages and 10‐year Treasuries, which triggered a wealth transfer from REIT equity holders to REIT debt holders. We also argue that the declining commercial‐mortgage‐10‐year‐Treasury yield spread during the Greenspan era allowed REITs to take on far more risk than most people realized. We then document that average REIT stock return volatility increased significantly in the 2007–2010 period in the midst of a historic decline in REIT stock prices. The results have significant implications for the good deal of interest and debate in the media over the status of REITs and whether equity REITs have become excessively risky relative to the returns they generate.     

基于地理探测器的内蒙古耕地水资源短缺时空变化特征及驱动力分析

[目的]明晰干旱半干旱区耕地水资源短缺的时空变化特征及驱动因素，是实现区域水资源可持续利用的首要前提，对保障区域乃至全国粮食安全和生态健康有着重要意义。[方法]文章以内蒙古为典型研究区，以水足迹理论为依据，通过构建耕地水资源短缺指数（Arable Land Water Scarcity Index,AWSI），分析2000—2018年内蒙古耕地水资源短缺指数时空格局及变化特征，并进一步借助地理探测器模型定量揭示研究区内气候、植被、地形、人口密度等11个自然和社会经济因素对耕地水资源短缺时空变化的影响差异。[结果]（1）内蒙古耕地水资源短缺指数总体呈西高东低的分布特征，西部耕地缺水压力较大。2000—2018年内蒙古耕地水资源短缺指数呈增加趋势，增加区域占总面积82%以上，主要分布在东部和中部地区。（2）自然因素主要决定内蒙古耕地水资源短缺的空间格局，其影响明显大于社会经济因素，但是2000—2018年社会经济因素的影响力在呈增大趋势。（3）自然因素中以蒸发量、年均温、降水量为主的气候因子在生态探测中共有19组显著差异，占据了影响因子中的主导地位。而在社会经济因素与自然因素的交互作用下，...     

Plural forms and dual distribution: the “external” party’s perspective and the role of path dependency

Marketing Letters - Increasingly, marketing activity takes place within complex organizational structures. One example of this is the so-called 'plural forms’ structure, where a buyer and...     

Environmental taxation,information precision,and information sharing

We analyze how environmental taxes should be optimally levied in a sequential game in which regulators and firms face costs uncertainties. First, the regulator chooses the intensity of emissions taxes to reduce externalities. Then, facing common and private information with noisy signals, firms compete in the marketplace and choose outputs. We show that, under nonuniform quality of signals across firms, the regulator may calibrate differentiated tax policy. We also show that the social impact of more precise private signals hinges largely and fundamentally on the value of the ratio of the slopes of the marginal damage and the marginal consumer surplus. Finally, we investigate information sharing between polluters and its impacts on welfare. We stress that, when there are threats of severe environmental damages under deep uncertainties, collusion is welfare reducing and may jeopardize the regulatory process. Regulators need to set an appropriate precautionary policy. Numerical simulations illustrate the results that the model delivers.