China: Global Crisis Avoided, Robust Economic Growth Sustained

Introduction
The financial and then economic crisis, which has engulfed the world since 2008, will shape the growth and development prospects of developing countries for the foreseeable future.     

Automated Model Selection in Finance: General‐to‐Specific Modelling of the Mean and Volatility Specifications*

General‐to‐Specific (GETS) modelling has witnessed major advances thanks to the automation of multi‐path GETS specification search. However, the estimation complexity associated with financial models constitutes an obstacle to automated multi‐path GETS modelling in finance. Making use of a recent result we provide and study simple but general and flexible methods that automate financial multi‐path GETS modelling. Starting from a general model where the mean specification can contain autoregressive terms and explanatory variables, and where the exponential volatility specification can include log‐ARCH terms, asymmetry terms, volatility proxies and other explanatory variables, the algorithm we propose returns parsimonious mean and volatility specifications.     

The Impact of Conflict Types and Location on Trade

This article investigates the impact of interstate and intrastate conflict on trade. Analyses rely on a pooled time-series cross-sectional dataset with observations for 134 countries from 1979 to 2000. Results show that intrastate conflict has a larger negative impact on trade than interstate conflict; conflict in the exporting country has a more negative impact on trade than conflict in the importing country; and, finally, conflict's destructive effects go beyond the borders of the countries that directly experience it, as trade flows are also negatively influenced by conflict in neighboring countries.     

Testing for asymmetries in the preferences of the euro-area monetary policymaker

This article tests for asymmetries in the preferences of the euro-area monetary policymaker with 1995:1–2005:2 data from the latest update of the European Central Bank's (ECB's) Area-wide database. Following the relevant literature, we distinguish between three types of asymmetry: precautionary demand for expansions, precautionary demand for price stability and interest rate smoothing asymmetry. Based on the joint generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation of the Euler equation of optimal policy and the aggregate supply-aggregate demand (AS-AD) structure of the macroeconomy, we find evidence of precautionary demand for price stability in the preferences revealed by the monetary policymaker. This type of asymmetry is consistent with the ECB's definition of price stability and with the priority of credibility-building by a recently created monetary authority.     

Business groups and their types

We clarify what business groups are and analyze their various types. We first distinguish business groups from other types of firm networks based on the strategic relationships among companies; business groups are defined as those networks that exhibit unrelated diversification under common ownership. We then separate business groups into three types based on their ownership: family-owned, widely-held, and state-owned. We argue that each type has different agency costs and diversification logics. As a result of these differences, their performance varies, with family-owned business groups outperforming widely-held ones, and these in turn outperforming state-owned business groups.

Representing roommates’ preferences with symmetric utilities

In the context of the stable roommates problem, it is shown that acyclicity of preferences is equivalent to the existence of symmetric utility functions, i.e. the utility of agent i when matched with j is the same as j's utility when matched with i.     

Gated Communities in Santiago: Wall or Frontier?

It is a widely held notion, disseminated in particular by the LA school of urban studies, that gated communities are enclaves, which not only maintain segregation but also help increase it. In Chile a more benevolent interpretation has arisen. Sabatini, C´ceres and Cerda argue that gated communities help out the poor communities that surround them. If the spatial scale of segregation is reduced — from city to local or neighborhood level — social disintegration should slow, according to their analysis. This article seeks to empirically complement and expand on Sabatini, Caceres and Cerda's position, which seems to be a better interpretation of Chilean reality than the grim picture presented by the LA school. The article is an ethnographic work based on in‐depth interviews in gated communities and a surrounding shantytown in the Huechuraba district, a lower socio‐economic class area in north‐west Santiago. The research concludes that, despite the existence of a wall that promotes community integration among so‐called equals, in conditions of spatial proximity sociability between inside and outside groups is not diminished. Thus, in Huechuraba there is no impenetrable wall separating poor and rich; equally, the walls do not seem to promote community integration within. Spatial proximity has encouraged relations mainly in the realm of functional exchange, making the creation of gated communities in poor neighborhoods a socially desirable experience, at least in the case of Santiago. En études urbaines, l'idée que les communautés privées sécurisées, gated communities, soient des enclaves qui entretiennent, et accentuent, la ségrégation est courante, notamment pour l'école de Los Angeles. Le Chili suscite une interprétation plus humaine. Selon Sabatini, Cáceres et Cerda, les communautés privées sécurisées sont un soutien pour les communautés pauvres avoisinantes. Si l'échelle spatiale de la ségrégation est réduite — de la ville au niveau local ou de quartier — la désintégration sociale devrait, d'après eux, ralentir. L'article vise à compléter et développer de façon empirique leur théorie, celle‐ci semblant traduire la réalité chilienne plus fidèlement que le sombre tableau de l'école de Los Angeles. Il s'agit ici d'un travail ethnographique qui s'appuie sur des entretiens poussés dans des communautés privées sécurisées et un bidonville du secteur de Huechuraba, zone socio‐économiquement pauvre du nord‐est de Santiago. Les recherches concluent que, malgré l'existence d'un mur qui favorise l'intégration communautaire entre soi‐disant égaux, la sociabilité entre les groupes intérieur et extérieur ne diminue pas en cas de proximité spatiale. Ainsi, à Huechuraba, il n'existe aucun mur impénétrable entre riches et pauvres; de même, les murs ne créent pas, semble‐t‐il, d'intégration communautaire dans leur enceinte. La proximité spatiale a encouragé les relations surtout dans le domaine des échanges fonctionnels, faisant de la création de communautés privées sécurisées dans les quartiers pauvres une expérience souhaitable au plan social, du moins dans le cas de Santiago.     

Human resource function strategic role and trade unions: exploring their impact on human resource management practices in Uruguayan firms

Organizations worldwide are confronted with different contextual constraints. Jackson and Schuler [1995, ‘Understanding Human Resource Management in the Context of Organizations and their Environments,' Annual Review of Psychology, 46, 237–264], in their classical review, highlight the importance of the impact of the internal and external organizational context on human resource management (HRM) practices. This paper uses data collected through a survey of firms located in Uruguay, in a context where HR function and trade unions have gone through significant changes, to determine their impact on the adoption of different HRM practices. The authors find that organizations with an HR function strategically involved and with higher degree of union presence have more person-centred HRM practices, while performance-centred HRM practices were positively influenced by HR function strategic role. However, the findings do not support the moderating role of trade union presence on the relationship between the HR function strategic role and HRM practices.